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CEE & SEE Markets Macro-Fundamental Analysis
Poštulková, Jitka ; Polyák, Oliver (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...
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The influence of shale gas on natural gas markets in Europe and North America
Otradovec, Michal ; Gutiérrez Chvalkovská, Jana (advisor) ; Rusnák, Marek (referee)
This thesis studies the impact of shale gas on the integration of natural gas markets in Europe and North America. In our practical part we examine with hard data to what extent integration of natural gas markets exists in Continental Europe and North America. We suppose that the recent changes in natural gas markets have significantly influenced the international integration between North American and European continents towards less integrated natural gas markets, but have strengthened the inner integration in these areas. Our results proved integration of natural gas market in each of the intra regional levels, what is consistent with the literature done on this topic. On the other hand our methods did not prove mutual integration between these trans-Atlantic natural gas markets, just as we expected in the hypothesis of this thesis. In our modelling we apply several approaches such as the Engle- Granger cointegration test, Johansen cointegration test and Vector error correction model to formally test for cointegration, from which we can state conclusions about mutual or inner integration. We use monthly data for a period of 1997-2011. Our research is unique becuase there are only a few existing studies on this topic to date. Our empirical tests are introduced by a solid overview of shale gas,...
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