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Vztah mezi zadlužeností domácností a hospodářským cyklem ve vybraných evropských zemích
Oleinik, Aleksandr
The aim of the work is to identify the relationship between household in-debtedness and the economic cycle in selected countries. In the empirical part, the analysis of the period 1996Q1-2022Q4 is carried out, based on data obtained from the BIS (Bank for International Stettlements) and Eurostat. The selection of countries was carried out with the help of work C. Gräb-ner, P. Heimberg, J. Kapeller and B. Schütze, 2019, where the EU states are divided into 4 economic groups. The following were selected: Core (Germany, Belgium), economies with a significant financial sector (Luxembourg, Netherlands), periph-ery (Italy, France), catch-up economies (Poland, Czech Republic). Two crises occurred in the reporting period, financial (2008) and pandem-ic COVID-19 (2020), so the time series was additionally divided into two sections 1996Q1-2007Q4 and 2008Q1-2019Q4, in order to verify the impact of the 2008 crisis on the relationship between debt and the economic cycle. Correlation and vector autoregression with the extension of Granger causality were used for the analysis . It was found that at time t there is a very weak correlation between the economic cycle and household indebtedness . Granger causality shows that the relationship in most states is endogenous, i.e. household indebtedness and the economic cycle interact, but in some states one-sided Granger causality has been identified. In the case of Germany, household indebtedness is a leading indicator of the economic cycle in all the periods examined, whereas in Italy household in-debtedness is a leading indicator only for the whole period). Luxembourg was the only country where no Granger causality was found.
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Endogenní teorie optimálních měnových oblastí
Huk, Václav
This thesis operates with the Endogenous Optimum Currency Area theory. It tests the main assumption of the endogenous theory by applying correlation and regression analysis on selected EU Member States. It compares correlation of economic cycles of selected states with the Eurozone over time along with testing significance of particular correlation factors. The results note significant synchronization of economic cycles during the economic crisis of 2008 as well as important desynchronization after 2013. As far as correlation factors are concerned statistical significance of Bilateral Trade Intensity, Intra-Industry Trade and Fiscal Differences Index on correlation of economic cycles is confirmed. However, the endogenous OCA hypothesis could not be unambiguously confirmed due to important European synchronization trend throughout the economic crisis that impacted large part of the results. Based on significant synchronization of European economies during economic crisis application of common monetary policy during this period can be recommended.
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Probability of default modelling using macroeconomic factors
Zsigraiová, Monika ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Rippel, Milan (referee)
The thesis evaluates relationship between probability of default of non-financial corporations and households and evolution of macroeconomic environment. This work contributes to the literature of credit risk proving importance of macroeconomic variables in determining the PDs both on aggregate level and for sector of non-financial corporations and sector of households in the Czech Republic. Evaluation of an impact of the recent financial crisis on the PDs are done by employing latent factor model and FAVAR model on monthly data of non-performing loans and other macroeconomic variables covering the period 01/2002-06/2013. Finally, an ability to forecast and fit the data of FAVAR model and one factor latent model are compared. The comparison indicates that latent factor model should be more appropriate than FAVAR model.
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Tax Revenues Fluctuation in the Context of Economic Recession and Growth
RYŠAVÁ, Petra
This bachelor thesis is about changing of tax revenues in the Czech Republic and the question is, if they are effected by economic cycle. The practical part of this thesis starts with displaying of the development of individual taxes. Then there is the tax mix in the major periods and the graph shows that the structure of the tax mix is not changing so much in these year. There was found that the tax revenues are not too effected by economic cycle in comparison with the year on year revenues of individual taxes with the year on year real gross domestic product. The size of the tax revenues could be affected by other factors, for example unemployment or inflation. Only the excise and energy tax have very similar process with the real GDP. The correlation analysis do not prove the dependence between the tax revenues and economic cycle. Only concerning indirect taxes there was found a very little connection with regard to the economic cycle. The conclusion is that the economic cycle affects in some way the size of the tax revenues, but it is not the most important factor.
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Impact of migration on the selected socio-economic indicators
Vrána, Martin ; Macháček, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Langhamrová, Jitka (referee)
This thesis deals with the topic of migration. In the theoretical level the work defines the term migration, further it discusses its reasons, forms, types and consequences. In the practical level the work examines the impact of migration on the socio-economic indicators. It is focused to characteristics of the migration impacts on social and economic indicators of the Czech Republic. The aim of the work is to assess the situation, which could arise in the future as a direct consequence of migration. The work further also brings information about the current situation and migration development in the Czech Republic, it also informs what kind of migration policy was chosen by the Czech Government and discusses the topic of national minorities living in our country. Selected goal of the work is processed in a third part, which discuss economic, social and demographic aspect of migration.
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Investing in Business Cycles
Mynář, Jan ; Brada, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Pech, Václav (referee)
This paper considers the problematic of business cycles. The author aggregates historical findings and development of opinions of business cycles. Author also evaluates methods of business cycle measurements with the use of economic indicators, including their analysis and understanding of their logic. Goal of the paper is to find a way to analyze economic cycles for use in asset allocation for portfolio management purposes.
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Wider context of the mortgage crisis in the USA
Kapitolová, Petra ; Němcová, Ingeborg (advisor) ; Nováková, Jana (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is a backward connection of the events concerning the mortgage crisis in the USA and explaining the importance of the crisis as a part of the economic cycle. Chapter no. 1 describes the beginning of the crisis in historical and other consequences. It briefly specifies history of the currency system and also history of the USA before the crisis. Also, it specifies the key phenomen of the crisis -- a bubble on the asset market. Afterwards it explains particularly the bubble on the technological market, so called Dot Com Bubble. This increase in the technological stock prices followed by their downfall is directly connected to the mortgage crisis which is described in a following text. The subprime mortgages and their influence on the further events are described. The topic of the following part of this chapter is wrapping up the mortgage backed securities together with other assets and their diffusion all over the world. This is one of the main reasons that caused the transformation of the mortgage crisis into the financial and the economic crisis. The end of the first chapter describes the progress of the crisis in Europe and in the Czech republic. The second chapter tries to answer the question if it was possible to predict the crisis. At first it describes the economic cycles generally and in the USA. The following part deals with the economic indicators which signalized the arrival of the crisis. The last part of the thesis demonstrates some specifics of housing and its importance as a leading indicator.
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