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Where did people die? An international assessment of a potentially positive relationship between economic development and the severity of COVID-19 outbreaks
Marigo, Jean-Baptiste ; Bertoli, Paola (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This paper studies the relationship between development and COVID-19 severity at the country level, expressed as total deaths per million inhabitants. The original perspective of this work is to consider that economic development factors could have a causal effect on COVID-19 deaths, instead of studying the inverse relationship. Bayesian Model Averaging procedures are used to select the most relevant predictors from a set of 21 candidate variables, using cross-sectional data from 01/01/2020 to 10/30/2022. This method solves the uncertainty issue on a topic where many potential factors could be included. In the end, four variables are selected based on their statistical significance, on the size of their standard deviation, and on other interpretability considerations. Ranked by order of importance, these predictors are the median age, overweight prevalence, democracy index, and (hydroxy)chloroquine variables, although the latter suffers from certain weaknesses. As three of these variables are characteristic of development, these robust results suggest that as a country develops, it becomes more vulnerable to outbreaks such as the COVID-19 one. This paper therefore concludes that public health policies should focus on these variables to mitigate the impact of development on the severity of future...
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Impact of the international trade agreements between EU and African countries
Svoboda, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
The international trade policy between the EU and African developing countries covers the negotiations of various agreements aiming to promote mutual trade flows. The goal seems to both exploit the economic potential and support local development, including poverty or inequality reduction. To gain the maximum utilization of the benefits of trade, agreements need to be optimized and set toward the right degree of integration. Therefore, this paper provides the ex-post analysis of trade agreements concluded during the period 1948-2021 to evaluate their impact on mutual trade volume. The Fixed effects and the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation methods are used in combination with two sets of dummy variables. The results reveal the negative impact of the EU-African agreements across all depth levels in comparison to the general arrangements. Furthermore, the African continent shows a relative trade reduction among agreements containing too few and too many integration ratios emphasizing the necessity of finding the right balance. Disaggregating the effect into the African regions, West Africa seems to be the worst-performing area thus far. Finally, we have found strong evidence of trade diversion questioning the positive welfare of African nations. According to our findings, the renegotiation...
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In Collaboration with Despot: Analysing the Impact of Sanctions on Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union
Chaloupka, David ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Teichman, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on investigating the Eurasian Economic Union, which was formed in 2015 to deepen economic integration in the post-Soviet region. The research aims to analyse the impact of sanctions on Russia and its partners within the Eurasian Economic Union to identify if Russia is circum- venting sanctions through these states before the war in Ukraine in 2022. For the analysis, I use gravity equations and trade fow data aggregated on product level. Based on the fndings, I reveal that the sanctions imposed on Russia have negatively impacted trade with partner states, with average reductions of over 27%. Additionally, on one hand, the Eurasian Economic Union experienced a trade creation and trade diversion efect, but on the other hand, the imposition of sanctions after 2014 resulted in negative impacts on trade between member states and with third states.
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The Impact of Sanctions on International Trade during 1995-2020: An Empirical Analysis
Symerská, Pavlína ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Eshun, Samuel Fiifi (referee)
Since economic sanctions became over the history a tremendously popular inter- national policy tool and the level of worldwide integration gradually increases, this thesis investigates the impact of trade sanctions implemented sharply be- tween 1995 and 2020 on bilateral trade flow. The empirical analysis was pro- vided through a gravity model, the OLS with fixed effects and the PPML, and sourced the information from the Global Sanction Database (volume 3) and from the CEPII Gravity Database. The results indicate not only a strong ef- fect during the implementation period, but its significant duration up to four years after the lift. Concluding remarks from this thesis might be valuable espe- cially for policymakers when deciding upon the most appropriate international provisions. JEL Classification F14, F18, F51, F60, N40 Keywords trade sanctions; exports; trade; the GSDB Title The Impact of Sanctions on International Trade during 1995-2020: An Empirical Analysis Author's e-mail 31052687@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz
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The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the centre of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially world-changing Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy. In this thesis Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and Network analysis are employed to assess the relative position of China in the International Trade Network (ITN), the overall impact of BRI, and its effect on countries in Central Eastern Europe and Western Balkans grouped in 17+1 mechanism. The results from Network analysis indicate that since the 1990s China is gradually moving towards the center of ITN. Subnetwork of BRI countries also exhibits higher cohesion and resilience to external shocks than ITN. GMT identified BRI as a significant and positive factor influencing exports, however in case of 17+1 mechanism countries the results are not robust. GMT was also successfully experimentally augmented with Network analysis variables demonstrating its possible enhancements and showing the path for further research. JEL Classification C23, C51, E27, F14 Keywords Gravity Model of Trade, Network Analysis, Belt and Road Initiative, 17+1 Mechanism Title The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the center of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
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Is there a direct link between global value chain participation and economic growth? Analysis of EU member countries
Obšil, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Kábrt, Martin (referee)
This thesis studies the strength of correlation between Global value chain par- ticipation and economic growth in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Es- tonia, Poland, Austria, Germany, and Hungary from 1995 to 2018. This rela- tionship is demonstrated by using traditional panel data methods, with forward and backward GVC participation as our main explanatory variables and GDP per capita as our response variable. Based on the graphs and initial models, the variables seemed to be correlated; nevertheless, our analysis did not confirm this hypothesis. Furthermore, we use the total value added of the food, textile, and electronic industries as proxy variables for sectoral growth. We found, in most cases, a strong and significant correlation between the growth of these industries and BP and FP. JEL Classification B22, C33, E23, F41, F63, L60, O47, O52 Keywords global value chains, economic growth, central and eastern European countries, forward partic- ipation, backward participation Title Is there a direct link between global value chain participation and economic growth? Analysis of EU member countries.
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Changes in the Ukrainian international trade after the Crimea annexation. Reorientation from the Russian Federation to the EU
Rakiv, Nadiia ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
This thesis is mainly focusing on the international trade tendency of Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the military intervention of Russia in the Don- bas region. Specifically, this work examines the changes in the Ukraine-Russia trade dimension and reorientation of Ukraine from Russia to the EU Partnership. Therefore, the role of the Donbas region, which used to be deeply integrated into the supply chains of Russian companies, is crucial to analyze. The prepared re- view of Ukrainian international trade agreements with Russia and other countries, specifically focusing on the changes of the main partners during the last years, is presented to emphasis the actuality of this thesis topic. This work is based on the comparison of patterns of Ukrainian foreign trade before and after the annexation of Crimea, with the further effects of the exten- sion towards European economics. The understanding of Crimea, the history of the peninsula and its inhabitants, the Crimean Tatars, is initially reviewed and covered. From Soviet genocide to Putin's Conquest (2016) publication was an essential resource. Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European vulnerabilities to Russian pressure, Radar corporation (2017) research was used as a basis of the Ukraine-Russia relations and consequences it...
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Feasibility analysis of local taxation of cross-regional companies in selected industries in China
Wang, Yuanpeng ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Bejkovský, Jan (referee)
CHARLES UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Department of Political Science Master's Thesis 2022 Yuanpeng Wang CHARLES UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Department of Political Science Feasibility analysis of local taxation of cross-regional companies in selected industries in China Master's thesis Author: Yuanpeng Wang Study programme: International Economics and Political Studies Supervisor: Prof. Vilém Semerák, PhD Year of the defence: 2022 Declaration 1. I hereby declare that I have compiled this thesis using the listed literature and resources only. 2. I hereby declare that my thesis has not been used to gain any other academic title. 3. I fully agree to my work being used for study and scientific purposes. In Jinlin 2 8, 2022 Yuanpeng Wang Abstract Previous research on Internet taxes in China has focused on the need to establish a tax system, and little has been done on specific tax enforcement methods and the value of Internet consumers themselves. The approach to Internet taxes in China will be proposed and its viability will be evaluated in the paper. That is giving local governments higher taxing authority and establishing a local Internet tax collection system that allows some business activities to pay a portion of the tax in...
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