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Global Economy Outlook - January 2015
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "The effect of oil prices on inflation from a GVAR model perspective" deals with the effect of oil prices on inflation from a GVAR (global vector autoregression) model perspective. This model framework shows that a fall in oil prices leads to an increase in anti-inflationary pressures, especially in the short run. If a country reaches the zero lower bound on monetary policy interest rates, a fall in oil prices can be expected to have a much greater impact on inflation according to this model.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "Applicability of Okun’s law to OECD countries and other economies" examines the validity of Okun's law, which empirically assesses the strength of the relationship between growth in unemployment and GDP. Using a sample of 59 countries, our analysis shows a significant asymmetry in the evolution of Okun's coefficient since the end of the 1990s.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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