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Political efforts to be re-elected - the contexts of the business cycle in the Czech Republic?
Josková, Kamila ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
As apparent from the name of my diploma thesis I am trying to find a relation between the political and the economical cycle in the Czech Republic. It is evident that the political events are motivated by the personal interests of the politicians to be re-elected. Also the development of the economy does not need to be spontaneous but influenced by the populist intentions. In the theoretical part I am trying to explain the relations between the political and the economical cycle and also the behaviour of several macroeconomic variables which I have chosen for the analytical part of my work. These are: GDP development, inflation, unemployment rate, social migration of the population, consumption and balance of the state budget. In the analytical part I am analysing the behaviour of the selected variables in the election period 1996-1998, 1999-2002, 2003-2006 and in the first two years of the postelection period 2007 and 2008. Based on the behaviour of the variables within the political cycle I am trying to find the possible reason of their development, whether it is a spontaneous process characterized by the current phase of the economical cycle or whether it is a result of the implemented populist measures.
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The Phenomenon of Deflation - Is It Really a Negative Effect?
Braunová, Veronika ; Munzi, Tomáš (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis investigates two divergences of opinion on the problem of deflation and tends to the side of Austrian economic school which deals with original conception. Deflation according to them means drastic decline of money supply or volume of expenditures in the economy. By disagreement with the modern concept of deflation are displaced the most famous myths connected with deflation (for example, increase in unemployment rate). Deflation is divided in several types, whereas in negative sense can be comprehended only one of them. Next is proved the inefficiency of implementing antideflationary policy which should fight against the deflation and restore inflation in economy. On the basis of research on deflation during The Great Depression was found to be deflation only a consequence of the crisis, not causation. As the causation was determined regulation of market during the period of the presidency of Hoover and Roosevelt. In conclusion new knowledge was used for the explanation of current financial crisis from which was indicted government and central banks.
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Transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve System
Petříková, Eva ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyses the chief relations inside the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System during the period from 1955 to 2007. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the principles of the history of Federal Reserve and his monetary policy, the development of Fed's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, the lags in the monetary policy and various theories which deal with try to explain the monetary policy relations. In the analytical part I focus on answering the most laid questions whether, how much and for how long do the nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates affect the real variables (mainly the real domestic product) of the United States. Next I focus on investigating the monetarist assumption of money neutrality in the long run. I also introduce Granger causality and Impulse and Responses investigations into proposed VAR model.
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The Great Depression in Germany
Jeřábková, Zdenka ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Diplomová práce se věnuje problematice Velké hospodářské krize v Německu. V teoretické části jsou představeny významné teorie hospodářského cyklu. Jsou to teorie keynesiánská, monetaristická a rakouská. Dále pak teorie reálného hospodářského cyklu, nové keynesiánské ekonomie a postkeynesiánství. Práce se v analytické čáati nejprve zabývá možnými příčinami krize a podává přehled o vývoji německé ekonomiky v druhé polovině 20. let. Dále pojednává o průběhu krize a jejích dopadech na celé německé hospodářství. Další část se věnuje hospodářským politikám, jež byly během Velké deprese prováděny. Součástí je i hodnocení hospodářských politik s návazností na uvedené teorie hospodářského cyklu. Poslední část práce se týká nacistické ekonomiky, čtyřletého plánu a dalších opatření nacistické hospodářské politiky.
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Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu - pohled současné makroekonomie
Potužák, Pavel ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Havel, Jan (referee)
Tato diplomová práce analyzuje rakouskou teorii hospodářského cyklu. Představuje její základní stavební kameny. V této teorii neexistuje rozlišení mezi krátkým a dlouhým obdobím, proto je spojena analýza hospodářského cyklu a hospodářského růstu. Hlavním klíčem k jejímu pochopení je teorie kapitálu, jež se zrcadlí v tzv. intertemporální struktuře produkce. Hospodářský cyklus je způsoben monetárním šokem, který atakuje cenový systém ekonomiky, zejména pak úrokovou míru. Tyto disturbance narušují intertemporální strukturu kapitálu a zahajují hospodářský cyklus. Diplomová práce analyzuje ne-neutralitu peněz, a to i v případě změn poptávky po penězích. Dále se pokouší představit slabiny této teorie a nalézá možná řešení. Diplomová práce také porovnává rakouskou teorii s moderními teoriemi hospodářského cyklu a upozorňuje na některé vady těchto teorií. Na závěr jsou vysvětleny hlavní pohyby české ekonomiky pomocí rakouské teorie hospodářského cyklu.
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Svensson, Bernanke and Inflation Targeting in Central Europe
Maršál, Aleš ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This paper focuses on controversial issues of inflation targeting. The study is based on Svensson?s and Bernanke?s theory which is applied in case studies of Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. Understanding of actual performing of inflation targeting allows us to interpret correctly econometric and statistics analysis. The object of the thesis is to decide if the central European countries should rather follow Bernanke?s or Svensson?s theoretical conclusions. Brief summary of historical development explains reasons for implementing of inflation targeting. Next, Bernanke?s and Svensson?s definition of inflation targeting is mentioned and the differences are further analyzed. In particular, the choice of price index, understanding of price stability, lags of monetary transmission mechanism, the choice between band and point target. The last part of the thesis deals with intermediate target examining the performance of central bank and market forecast.
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Central bank - advantages and risks of its independence
Čech, David ; Janáček, Kamil (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This work is about central bank independence and about advantages and risks resulted from this position. The beginnig of the work is about history of central banking in the world and in our republic. The next capture is dedicated to the question of necessity of central banks and it uses especially the work of F.A.Hayek. It also describes his suggestion to implement the competition between private issuers of money. The last and the largest chapter is about central bank independence. After the definition of independence, there is a part concerned types of independence, mainly the legal and the actual one. The level of independence can be usually measured by few indexes. The way how to calculate them is also in the text of this work. Final part of the work is aimed on advantages and risks resulting from the independent status of central bank. The main advantage is represented by elimination of time inconsistency problem, on the other hand the main risk is the absence of responsibility of central bank for her policy.
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Ready for Euro?
Staňková, Andrea ; Urban, Luděk (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Recently, there has been a broad discussion regarding the timing of joining the Euro zone. The mainstream opinion is that the sooner the Czech Republic joins, the better. However, as this thesis indicates, especially the econometric model, the Czech Republic is not ready for doing so. Hence, an early accession may not be beneficial.
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Murry Rothbard a jeho přispění k objasnění Velké hospodářské krize
Sejček, Zdeněk ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
There were many attempts to explain what exactly happened to USA?s economy between years 1921 and 1929. First and for many years the only one ?mainstream? explanation was that the main cause of Great Depression was underconsumption and overinvestment brought about by irresponsible customers and much more irresponsible investors. But there were also other explanations, based on totally contradictory conclusions and main cause of business cycles was found in state?s driven monetary expansion. Murray Rothbard?s explanation, based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory and developed in his book America?s Great Depression (written in 1963), is just one of them. In this book (despite of it has more than 300 pages) he advocates only one receipt how to avoid depressions: to stop FED?s power to inflate. Only this governmental agency, delegated by government to care about money and to expand money stock when necessary, can cause such big depression as Great Depression had been. Natural business cycle, less serious without compare, is organic part of every market and there is no reason to fight against it. But in the background with ever-present governmental attempt to do things better than something uncontrolled like market, business cycle changes itself to destructive long-term process that might take multiple more time to recover back to prosperous and healthy economic system. As Rothbard pointed out, all depressions without governmental interference were short-lived and self-adjustment process completed itself as rapidly as possible. The main ambition of my work would be to summarize Murray Rothbard?s work regarding Business Cycle and especially Great Depression and put it in context of Austrian Business Cycle Theory.
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Fiskální federalismus
Kocíková, Jana ; Štěpánek, Pavel (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Diplomová práce popisuje na základě teorie fiskálního federalismu rozdělení pravomocí a odpovědnosti za zajišťování a financování veřejných statků mezi jednotlivé vládní úrovně v ČR. Část práce se zabývá nejvýznamnějšími příjmy územně samosprávných celků - dotacemi a sdílenými daněmi. Dále je jedna kapitola věnována problému finanční soběstačnosti územně samosprávných celků a s touto problematikou souvisejícímu zákonu o rozpočtovém určení daní. Historický vývoj zákona a jeho vliv na soběstačnost krajů a obcí dokumentují číselné hodnoty vybraných rozpočtových položek územně samosprávných celků v letech 2001 - 2006. Závěrem je srovnávána hospodářská situaci krajů. Na datech vztahujících se k rozpočtu třech krajů je názorně ukázán princip financování vyšších územně samosprávných celků v ČR.
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