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Essays in Applied Macroeconomics
Pestova, Anna ; Kapička, Marek (advisor) ; Lenza, Michele (referee) ; Uras, Burak R. (referee)
This Thesis studies the role of domestic and foreign credit shocks in aggregate fluctua- tions and how households respond to those shocks. The first chapter explores the role of credit in shaping aggregate fluctuations in a panel of advanced and emerging countries. We decompose total credit by aggregate shocks and by borrower type. We establish that the overall boom-bust recession response to bank credit is due to exclusively household credit expansions, primarily when these expansions are driven by shocks to aggregate demand. In contrast, corporate credit expansions exhibit no boom-bust effects and immediately increase the risk of recession, and this increase is mainly driven by shocks to credit supply. The second chapter analyzes the transmission of credit supply shocks to household balance sheets and labor market outcomes. We leverage differences in credit conditions across U.S. states and compare household outcomes of the population residing in states that witnessed credit conditions easing of various intensities. We show that positive credit shocks lead to greater household defaults in the future if they increase the household mortgage-to-income ratio. We document that positive credit supply shocks induce (i) shifts of employment between the tradable and non-tradable sectors, (ii) changes in...
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The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail ; Pestova, Anna
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
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“Crime and punishment”? How banks anticipate and propagate global financial sanctions
Mamonov, Mikhail ; Pestova, Anna ; Ongena, S.
We study the impacts of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but not-yet-sanctioned) banks to adapt their international and domestic exposures in advance. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach with in-advance adaptation to anticipated treatment, we establish that targeted banks immediately reduced their foreign assets and actually increased their international borrowings after the first sanction announcement compared to other similar banks. We reveal that the added value of the next sanction announcements was rather limited. Despite considerable outflow of domestic private deposits, the government support prevented disorderly bank failures and resulted in credit reshuffling: the banks contracted corporate lending by 4% of GDP and increased household lending by almost the same magnitude, which mostly offset the total economic loss. Further, we introduce a two-stage treatment diffusion approach that flexibly addresses potential spillovers of the sanctions to private banks with political connections. Employing unique hand-collected board membership and bank location data, our approach shows that throughout this period, politically-connected banks were not all equally recognized as potential sanction targets. Finally, using syndicated loan data, we establish that the real negative effects of sanctions materialized only when sanctioned firms were borrowing from sanctioned banks. When borrowing from unsanctioned banks, sanctioned firms even gained in terms of employment and investment but still lost in terms of market sales pointing to a misallocation of government support.
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Uzupis (Vilnius) and Kalamaja (Tallinn): " Cultural quarters" and the post-Soviet urban space transformation in Baltic states.
Pestova, Anna Aleksandrovna ; Klusáková, Luďa (advisor) ; Tumis, Stanislav (referee) ; Kovářová, Linda (referee)
The collapse of USSR in 1991 became a starting point for many deep changes in Eastern and Central Europe. These changes affected not only politics, but all spheres of life. Urban development reflected it as well. The post-Soviet urban transformation is a specific chapter in history of the cities. In our work we will focus on the influence of cultural activities on districts' development with examples of Užupis in Vilnius and Kalamaja in Tallinn. Today both of these districts are known because of their artistic image and quick development. At the same time, these two capitals of Baltic states are registered on UNESCO World heritage list and Užupis and Kalamaja are parts of the protected areas. To support the balance between preservation of the historical heritage and modern development is an important issue for both of them. We will consider the influence of cultural activities on district's development and distinctive features of these processes in cases of Užupis and Kalamaja. Key words: urban transformation, urban development, Cultural quarters, urban districts, cultural heritage, post-Soviet, Baltic states Абстракт Распад СССР в 1991 стал отправной точкой для множества глубоких изменений в Восточной и Центральной Европе. Изменения затронули не только политику, но и все сферы жизни, также они...
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Sport and Intersexuality in the Media
Peštová, Anna ; Pavlík, Petr (advisor) ; Jahodová, Dita (referee)
Diploma thesis "Sport and Intersexuality in Media" deals with the topic of intersexuality in professional sport, which was at the centre of media attention during the World Athletics Championship in Berlin in August 2009, as the South African athlete Caster Semenya won on the 800 m track. Because of her sports performance in conjunction with her appearance she had to undergo a sex test and until its evaluation she was excluded from athletic competitions. The aim of the study was to analyse texts published by selected nationally distributed Czech printed journals by using the quantitative content analysis and to describe the image of intersexuality, a publicly infrequently discussed topic, media submit to its readers, to capture any differences in the presentation of intersexuality and intersex people between the analysed media and to evaluate, whether and how the media contribute to retaining of the existing power order discriminating intersex people or whether they try to undermine this order.
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