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Analýza vztahu kvality bilančních aktiv centrální banky a účinnosti monetární politiky
Lekishvili, Salome ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the issue of financial performance of central banks. Central banking is generally considered as a profitable part of financial system. However, this paper focuses on the loss-making central banks and emphasizes the examples of central banks with large accumulated financial losses. Relationship between the quality of balance sheet assets and financial performance of central banks is closely examined in the thesis. Alongside, it analyses the impact of negative financial performance on the main objectives of central bank, in the role of monetary authority. Effectiveness of monetary policy is conditioned by many factors, among them are independence of central bank, the level of development of financial markets - central bank operates in, analytical skills of employees and etc. However, the case, where financial performance of central bank is discussed in connection with monetary policy performance, is extremely rare. The primary goal of this diploma thesis is to reveal and describe the main ways in which financial performance of the central bank influences monetary policy decisions. It also tries to find out whether there is hidden threat of a damaging impact on the decisions in case the central bank accumulates the negative financial results.
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Informatory value of official rating in context of market innovations
Hrouzek, Miroslav ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
The subject of this thesis is recent development of credit evaluation industry and analysis of rating agency`s behaviour in relation to official rating changes. In the first chapter, fundamental limitations of analytical ratings are defined. Stating both advantages and disadvantages arising mainly from market defficiency, the second one introduces credit default swap as an alternative manner for credit risk measurement. Next part summarizes existing academic activity in context of rating informatory value, highlighting abnormal and asymmetric market reactions. Based on Moodys` approach, the fouth chapter provides reader with the concept of market implied ratings that are consequently used to analyse relation between CDS-IR and official ratings. The last subchapters investigate sensitivity ratio of how rating gap level determines prospective response of rating agency.
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Analysis of Exchange Rates (Commodity Exporting and Importing Countries)
Slabý, Pavel ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
This bachelor thesis´s objective is to analyze a possible relationship between exchange rates of selected countries and prices of commodities that these countries export. The thesis aims to describe this relationship and to quantify it. The selected countries are Canada, Japan, Norway, Australia, Zambia and Burundi. This thesis first describes theoretically the relationships between the exchange rates and fundamental quantities. The method of empirical analysis is described in the second part. Correlation and regression analysis is carried out and some problems that I have encountered during the econometric analysis are described as well. I study the aforementioned relationship on monthly data of nominal effective exchange rates from 2000 to 2015 in case of Canada, Japan, Australia and Norway. In case of Zambia and Burundi I study the relationship on yearly data of real effective exchange rates from 1980 to 2014. During my analysis I learned that these exchange rates really show some dependence on the commodity prices. The relationship is strongest in case of Norwegian Krone and oil prices. On the other hand the relationship is the weakest in case of Japanese Yen and oil prices.
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Analýza korelácií kurzov národných mien: Sú korelácie v čase stabilné?
Šimonová, Silvia ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyzes correlations of exchange-rates. Its aim of this thesis is to establish and verify the causes of exchange-rate correlations using correlation analysis. The first chapter examines the impact of funadamentals on currency correlation. The second chapter is devoted to the theory of correlation analysis as a statistical method, which detects linear dependencies. The third chapter is devoted to empirical verification of the currency correlations of EUR/CHF, AUD/CAD, NOK/ SEK and BRL/CLP and certain fundamentals. The key finding of this work is that correlation of the exchange rates may reflect the convergence of fundamental values, if taking into account the economic characteristics of the countries and the characteristics of used statistical files.
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The exchange rate system and the exchange rate development of the Kazakh tenge
Pak, Irina ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (referee)
In my bachelor thesis we consider the exchange rate system in Kazakhstan and mainly deal with the basic historical stages of the exchange rate development. In this paper we make balance of payments analysis and empirical analysis of the exchange rate development in the country during 1993 - 2015. Our analysis describes the dependence of the nominal effective and the bilateral exchange rates KZT/USD on the balance of payments, the inflation rate, the gross domestic product and oil price. Empirical analysis, based on correlation and regression analysis, confirms our theoretical hypotheses. Because exchange rate depends on oil price development, tenge can be included among so-called commodity currencies. Also we confirm the expected relationships between the balance of payments, domestic inflation, gross domestic product and the exchange rate. In the last part of my work, we describe the influence of the exchange rate development on the national economy. In this thesis, we take into consideration the main goals of the central bank, current issues and its actions in order to prevent the occurrence of new economic crises.
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The Central bank of the Russian Federation's exchange rate policy and Russian ruble exchange rate during the period between 1992-2015
Shakirova, Karina ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on the exchange rate policy of the Central bank of the Russian Federation and on the analysis of Russian ruble exchange rate during the period between 1992 and 2015. In the first part the main instruments of the Central bank of Russia's monetary policy and history of its exchange rate policy are described. The second part is oriented on the empirical analysis of the ruble exchange rate for the period between 2002 and 2015, where the dependence between the ruble exchange rate and certain factors as the balance of payments, the inflation rate and the oil prices is researched. The third part contains a description of Russian economic situation during the recent economic crisis, which started in 2014. Its causes, its evolution and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate during this period are analysed.
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Oceňování derivátů v postkrizovém období / Post crisis valuation of derivatives
Baran, Jaroslav ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
In this study we analyse relationship between classical approach to valuation of linear interest rate derivatives and post-crisis approach when the valuation better reflects credit and liquidity risk and economic costs of the transaction on top of the risk-free rate. We discuss the method of collateralization to diminish counterparty credit risk, its impact on derivatives pricing, and how overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates became market standard for discounting future derivatives' cash flows. We show that using one yield curve to both estimating the forward rates and discounting the expected future cash flows is no longer possible in arbitrage free market. We review in detail three fundamental interest rate derivatives (interest rate swap, basis swap and cross-currency swap) and we derive discount factors used for calculating the present value of expected future cash flows that are consistent with market quotes. We also investigate drivers behind basis spreads, in particular, credit and liquidity risk, and supply and demand forces, and show how they impact valuation of derivatives. We analyse Czech swap rates and propose an estimation of CZK OIS curve and approximate discount rates in case of cross-currency swaps. Finally, we discuss inflation markets and consistent valuation of inflation swaps.
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Specifics of Quantitave Easing of ECB and exit strategy
Matiáš, Marek ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
Goal of master thesis Specifics of Quantitave Easing of ECB and exit strategy is to analyse monetary policy called Quantitative easing and its exit strategy. Largest part of thesis addresses this monetary policy on example of European central bank but there is also summary transmission mechanisms and opinions of effectivness of this monetary policy on examples of other central banks. On example of ECB this work describes process of quantitative easing. Also there is empicital analysis of impacts of purchases under Securities market programme on yields of goverment bonds. Result of this anylsis is finding that SMP was effective only partly, mainly at time of its announcement. Further the work analysis current balance sheet of ECB from the perspective of exit from quantitative easing concluding that ECB would be able to execute exit strategy to these days.
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Export and Import functions (Empirical analysis on the example of the Czech Republic)
Obešlo, František ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This work focuses on import and export of goods of the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic is very open country in European Union. Ratio of import and export of goods and services to GDP is above European Union average. The goal is to find explaining variables, which has an influence on import and export of goods and to create robust and economically interpretable models. Models are created by cointegration analysis. The advantage of cointegration analysis and error correction models is avoiding spurious regression and differentiation of short-term and long-term relations. There will be used two attitudes for creation of models: with help of ADL models and Johansen method, which serve to comparison of results. There is a space for test of influence of exchange rate shocks on import and export of goods in the end.
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Napětí na devizovém trhu: měření pomocí teorie extrémních hodnot
Zuzáková, Barbora ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Benecká, Soňa (referee)
This thesis discusses the phenomenon of currency crises, in particular it is devoted to empirical identification of crisis periods. As a crisis indicator, we aim to utilize an exchange market pressure index which has been revealed as a very powerful tool for the exchange market pressure quantification. Since enumeration of the exchange market pressure index is crucial for further analysis, we pay special attention to different approaches of its construction. In the majority of existing literature on exchange market pressure models, a currency crisis is defined as a period of time when the exchange market pressure index exceeds a predetermined level. In contrast to this, we incorporate a probabilistic approach using the extreme value theory. Our goal is to prove that stochastic methods are more accurate, in other words they are more reliable instruments for crisis identification. We illustrate the application of the proposed method on a selected sample of four central European countries over the period 1993 - 2012, or 1993 - 2008 respectively, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The choice of the sample is motivated by the fact that these countries underwent transition reforms to market economies at the beginning of 1990s and therefore could have been exposed to speculative attacks on their newly arisen currencies. These countries are often assumed to be relatively homogeneous group of countries at similar stage of the integration process. Thus, a resembling development of exchange market pressure, particularly during the last third of the estimation period, would not be surprising.
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