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Vliv hazardu na kriminalitu: evidence z České Republiky
Lupač, Milan ; Dušek, Libor (advisor) ; Špecián, Petr (referee)
The focus of this thesis is to examine the relationship between gambling and crime in the Czech environment, where gambling is broadly available. Data about the individual gambling machines and tables together with the data about offenses in particular police districts were used in order to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The final dataset observes 388 geographical units over the life span between April 2013 and December 2015. The study employs three estimation techniques the OLS, Poisson regression and Negative binomial regression to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The main variable representing the size of gambling is the number of slot machines as these are the most broadly available type of gambling. The final estimated relationship between crime and slot machines is that one additional slot machine is associated with an increase in crime by 0.3-0.5% depending on the method and frequency. On the contrary, the effect of casino games, electromechanical roulettes, and dice devices on crime was found to be statistically insignificant. In addition, the study also analyses particular types of crimes, finding that gambling has an impact particularly on crimes that involve material benefits as opposed to the violent crimes. Moreover, it also conducts a what-if analysis demonstrating the estimated impact of reduction of gambling on the substantial drop of the number of offenses over the observed period was rather limited and account for 937 offenses.
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Fertility and uncertainty
Lupač, Milan ; Melzochová, Jitka (advisor) ; Matějka, Marek (referee)
This paper focuses on effects of economic uncertainty on decision making about childbearing. We had used a regression analysis of unbalanced panel dataset of 27 european countries with maximal lenght of time series of 52 years to determine relationship between fertility and uncertainty. Proxy variables like real GDP per capita, unemployment and their volatilities were used to measure the rate of uncertainty. Volatilities were created by using GARCH and EGARCH models. There was found that real per capita GDP is positively related to fertility and unemployment is related negatively. On the other hand the relationship between volatilities of real per capita GDP and unemployment are positively related to the fertility, but only till the moment when the volatility reaches turning point. Thereafter this relationship turns into negative. Positive relationship on fertility was also found for infant mortality, marriage rate and female labor participation rate. Negative relationship on fertility was found for divorce rate and old dependency ratio.
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