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Manifestation of carry trade on financial markets
Sadykova, Albina ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis concerns with speculative carry trade strategy. Carry trade is based on breach of Uncovered Interest Parity. The theoretical part is focused on traditional fundamental analysis. This thesis deals with the identification of carry trade existence and capture their expressions in the financial markets, verification profitability and attractiveness of carry trade operations, analysis of conditions for carry trade on financial markets before and after global financial crisis 2008. Important part of the work was also description of the consequences of carry trade transactions and their effects on the exchange rate and financial situation
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Analysis of the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate within boarders of a small open economy
Brigant, Michal ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
Primary objective of this thesis was to analyse the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate within borders of a small open economy. Different theoretical approaches often present us with various, sometimes even opposing conclusions when it comes to the matter of direction and intensity of the causal influence between these two variables. From author's point of view it is important to perceive the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate as a dynamic process rather than a static relationship. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly time series (2000-2012) of three selected small open economies -- Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Graphical analysis, linear regression, vector autoregression and cointegration analysis were selected as suitable tools for meeting the objective of this thesis. Models themselves presented us with interesting conclusions, for example a proof of the international Fisher effect, exchange rate causally affecting the interest rate (interest rate differential) in case of spot rates against euro. Another curious phenomena was the inflow of foreign debt capital, which, as it seems, was actually pulling the exchange rate down rather than pushing it up due to rising indebtedness of the economy.
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Finacial crisis causes and some of the instituonal answers
Rys, David ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This master thesis deals with causes and some of the main instituonal answers to the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The thesis also ppresents a brief historical overview of US financial crisis. The main aim of the first chapter is to decide whether the US historical crisis have something in common. The answer is that the past crisis really share something and the difference is rather in historical circumstances. The second chapter is dedicated to some of the financial crisis causes such as Community Reinvestment Act,Gramm Leach Bliley Act, Commodity Futures Modernization Act and also to the role of moral hazard. This thesis is of a firm belief that the only aspect that can be blamed is the phenomenon of moral hazard. The last chapter is focused on the main instituonal answers to the crisis. Dodd-Frank Act, Volcker rule, reorganization of derivative market, some of the changes in rating agencies regulation and also BASEL III consequences for capital requirements are all under the radar.
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Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves of Bank of Russia in the Years 2004 - 2012
Vlazneva, Anna ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of foreign exchange reserves of Bank of Russia in the years 2004 -- 2012. The first chapter explains the most important theoretical terms, knowledge of which is necessary to understanding the topic, and describes the theoretical approaches to determining the minimum or optimal level of reserve holdings. The next section is devoted to the Bank of Russia, instruments of monetary policy it uses and a special regime of exchange reserves accumulation, related to Russia's position as one of the world's largest exporters. The last part concerns with the analysis of Russia's foreign exchange reserve holdings in the years 2004 -- 2012 from the various views and is closed with calculating the minimum level of reserve holdings required by indicators described in the theoretical part.
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Alternative perspectives on economic indicator Gross Domestic Product
Salaj, Petr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The main goal of this dissertation is to explore alternative economic indicators to GDP. The paper also analyses whether GDP is able to capture the development of a society's welfare, and whether different indicators can show other results about the development of national economy. After an introductory description of GDP, the paper outlines the core limits of this indicator. Following this is a discussion of happiness economics and Easterlin's paradox. The paper then goes on to explore the subject of alternative indicators in more detail. In the final chapter, five selected alternative indicators are analyzed, and compared with GDP using the USA's economy as an example. In conclusion, the paper evaluates the usefulness of these alternative indicators and finds that alternative indicators give a different perspective on national economy than GDP.
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The external economic equilibrium of the Czech republic
Šedivý, Ctibor ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis focuses on the theoretical conception of the Balance of Payment, its method of adjustment and stress the development of the Czech republic's Balance of Payment in period 2000 -- 2010 via analytical-descriptive approach. It defines its basic terms practical relations within framework of the horizontal and vertical outlook. Thesis's Attention is spread out between status and flow quantity. Thesis is also consist of three boxes that contain a short profile of intertemporal approach to the Common Account, sustainability of investment position and excursion to the essential theories of foreign currency exchange rate that is related to the Balance of payment tight. The end is dedicated to the "traditional" indicators of external equilibrium of the Czech republic in pre-monetary crisis era and in the present.
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Methods of the exchange rate determination and the analysis of the MDL/USD currency pair
Panfile, Mariana ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to describe the basic theories of the exchange rate determination in the case of the MDL/USD currency pair. The first part of the thesis describes the exchange rate as one of the basic economic quantities, its importance in the current economic environment and the basic approaches to its determination. Next part is focused on the three fundamental models of prediction of the exchange rate: the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the international Fisher effect and the balance of payments theory. Application of the described models is included in the analytical part, where the theoretical evidence is verified upon the real economic data. The results of the empirical analysis and the possible reasons that limit holding of the characterized models in the real economic environment are discussed in the conclusion of the bachelor thesis.
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The theory of optimum currency areas and the entry of the Czech Republic into the EMU
Vála, Vladimír ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to determine, whether the Economic and Monetary Union fulfills criteria of optimum currency area, to evaluate the nominal and real convergence of the Czech Republic to EMU and to assess benefits and costs resulting from the implementation of common currency in the Czech Republic. I present basic criteria of optimum currency area and I try to find out whether they are met within the EMU. There are three economic criteria, three political criteria, the criteria of alignment of the business cycle, and also to mention Brown's tests and criteria of Václav Klaus. It also analyses whether the Czech Republic meets the Maastricht (nominal) convergence criteria and the extent to which is achieved real convergence. The benefits and costs associated with membership in the European Monetary Union for the Czech Republic are described in the conclusion.
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Náklady na vstup do EMU a případ Řecka
Trimmi, Argyro ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The introduction of euro in 2002 was considered to be a risky "experiment. Even before its actual existence, many economists have doubted the success of the Economic Monetary Union (EMU) emphasizing the potential costs of such a bold action. The traditional Optimum Currency Area by Mundell (1961), Mc Kinnon (1963) and Kenen (1969) has pointed out the loss of the exchange-rate mechanism and the structural differences among the member states as the main sources of costs within a monetary union. Ten years after the circulation of euro, the ongoing Greek debt crisis has revealed the imperfections of the EMU. Greece has become the "black sheep" of the union, having accumulated unsustainable levels of public debt and deficits that could pose a threat for the future of the Eurozone. It is widely believed that the profligate fiscal policies of the Greek government and the domestic flaws of the Greek economy have played an importan role on the country's debt crisis. However, the impact of Greece's accession to the EMU on the current crisis is still a moot question.
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Dealing with potential break up of Economic and Monetary Union
Shpitontsev, Leonid ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kučera, Lukáš (referee)
The main principle of the thesis is to address issues concerning structural problems of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and assess economical impact of its potential break up. This in turn implies the need to discuss certain issues. Firstly, since the EMU is based on the concept of Optimal Currency Area (OCA); I start my research with the test whether EMU in its current structure fits the definition of OCA. Secondly, I provide the extensive study on the reasons of current crisis in order to understand the root causes. Thirdly, I assess the potential implications of different ways out of the current sovereign debt crisis.
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