National Repository of Grey Literature 198 records found  beginprevious133 - 142nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Application of technical analysis on algorithmic trading
Šíla, Jan ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis takes on the question of profitability of algorithmic trading based on trend and momentum indicators and examines whether or not it is possible to acquire systematic profits. It reviews the development of relevant literature over the last 100 years to determine whether the inner workings of the market can be quantified and plausibly modelled. On three major U.S. stock indices are then tested several different strategies to determine whether in the long- term, passive investment can be outperformed by active trading. Merit of the work lies in backtesting several strategies and interpreting the results according to unique characteristics of the indices.
Hedge Effectiveness in Copper Futures Market: Case study for "Erdenet" Mining Co.Ltd in Mongolia
Khurelbaatar, Baigali ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to analyze the copper futures market in London Metal Exchange (LME) and to recommend appropriate hedging strategy in copper futures market to the Erdenet Mining Corporation in Mongolia. It uses daily official settlement copper prices of LME in the spot and 3 month futures markets from 2000-2014. Initially, we use cointegration test and ECM to investigate the copper market efficiency. Then OLS, ECM, GARCH, EGARCH and ECM-GARCH models are employed to compute different optimum hedge ratios. Finally, the hedge effectiveness is measured based on minimization of the value of AIC and SBIC. Our result indicate that copper futures market is inefficient. Hedge effectiveness comparison concludes that ECM model gives the best hedging performance. However, ECM-GARCH is accounted to be the best model for hedging strategy since it captures the time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity to ECM model. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange
Nušlová, Alice ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
Bibliographic entry: NUŠLOVÁ, Alice. Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange. Prague, 2014. Bachelor thesis, Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Stud- ies. Supervisor: PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D. Title: Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange Author: Alice Nušlová Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail address: kristoufek@ies-prague.org Abstract: Since its birth in the 1980s, pairs trading has become a widely used strategy for making profits among hedge funds and institutional investors. This technique identifies pairs of securities whose historical prices show long-run relationship, and takes advantage of their short- term relative mispricing. Profit is generated due to correcting behavior of security prices as they converge towards equilibrium value of their spread. The aim of this thesis is to compare two traditional approaches to pairs trading: cointegration and sum of squared deviations between normalized historical returns, known as distance criterion, within the Prague Stock Exchange equity market. We further investigate whether the two methods, so commonly employed in the US equity market, can be applied with similar success in the PSE. Our results reveal that the strategy using distance...
Google searches and financial markets: IPOs and uncertainty
Vakrman, Tomáš ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis studies how the investor attention proxied by Google search volume affects different aspects of market behavior. My results show that a surge in online attention is associated with an increase in trading activity and stock price volatility, but no effect is detected for daily returns. Yet, if market sentiment is taken into account, the relationship comes to the surface for returns as well. The returns tend to decrease with attention hikes in negative sentiment periods and the opposite is observed for periods of positive sentiment, suggesting that Google web search captures predominately attention of sentiment investors. Moreover, I demonstrate that with the outburst of financial crisis, the interdependence between attention and trading activity was intensified. Lastly, I provide evidence that web search may shed some light on IPO-related puzzles. The initial returns seem to be higher for IPOs that receive above average attention, and are likely to be reversed in long-term. In addition, it is ascertained that web search volume may act as a proxy for market overreaction to the offerings. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
Variance structure of the Bitcoin currency
Pátek, Martin ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to explain how Bitcoin works, analyze the Bitcoin total variation and to separate the jump component of realized variance from the continuous part. In order to do so, we use estimates of quadratic variation and integrated variance. We detect jumps using a test which is based on the difference between realized variance and bipower variation. The results for BTC/USD exchange rate are then compared with the results for EUR/USD exchange rate, price of gold and for the S&P 500 index. In case of all datasets, we use data with five-minute frequency. It seems that no other work analyzing the Bitcoin total variation using the same methods to separate the jump component from the continuous part of a price process has been written so far. We found that jumps in the Bitcoin total variation are stronger than for other analyzed instruments. The results also suggest that the duration between jumps for Bitcoin considerably prolonged during the monitored period which may indicate that the behavior of price of bitcoin has stabilized over time. We also found out that the variance of price of bitcoin is higher during the monitored period in comparison with other analyzed instruments. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
Capital Market Hypotheses and Their Statistical Implications: A Comparative Study
Petras, Petr ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
In this bachelor thesis we focus on different Market Hypotheses. Specifically on Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fractal Market Hypothesis and Coherent Market Hypothesis. In the first part of the work we provide description of researched hypotheses and methods used for testing. In the second part of the work we run test on time series of share markets, gold markets and currency markets and test if our hypotheses can provide explanation about price changes on those markets. For Efficient Market Hypothesis we wonder if prices are following random walk (via augmented Dickey-Fuller test), if residuals are normally distributed (via Shapiro-Wilk and Jarque-Bera tests) and if residuals are uncorrelated (via Box-Pierce test). For Fractal Market Hypothesis we are trying to find value of Hurst exponent via Rescaled Range analysis. This exponent describes if time series are persistent or not. And for Coherent Market Hypothesis we develop simple method for testing if some time periods can yield above-average revenues, thanks to increased mean and decreased standard deviation. After that we find out what are consequences of short time series and different frequencies for obtaining data points and we learn that some hypotheses describes different time periods or lengths better and are not so good for different ones. Powered...
Are More Liquid Stocks Also More Efficient?
Kupka, Petr ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
Liquidity and informational efficiency are closely watched features of financial markets. Together with stock exchange size effect, captured by market capitalization, this thesis examines the triple of relationships among these three stock market properties. Applying methods of sequences and reversals ratio test, autocorrelation coefficient test and variance ratio test provided us with 14 proxy measures of efficiency for each stock. Daily prices and volumes traded for period 2003 - 2013 of 206 stocks sampled from 22 stock exchanges were used. The same data were used for Amihud illiquidity measure. The positive relationship between stock efficiency and liquidity was not strongly supported neither rejected. It turned out that stock liquidity is very strongly positively dependent on size of stock exchange where is that particular stock listed. It was also concluded that there are more efficient stocks listed in larger stock exchanged. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15 Keywords: stock liquidity, stock exchange size, stock efficiency Author's e-mail: kupkapetr@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: kristoufek@ies-prague.org
Financial earthquakes: Are volatility correlations related to Omori's law?
Bureš, Vlastimil ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the market dynamics in periods following a large financial shock. In order to do so, we compute the cumulative number of times the volatility is greater than a given threshold. Such a method is analogous to Omori's law from geophysics. We draw statistical evidence from three different events. The first one is concerned with the death of Steve Jobs and how it affected the evolution of Apple's share price. The second one focuses on the Flash Crash of 2010 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced the largest drop of 900 points. And the last one is when IBM announced its 2013Q1 earnings which were significantly below expectations. By employing two different approaches to volatility calculation, we are able to compare the obtained results and thus draw a more definite conclusion. Our findings suggest that the decay rate of after-shocks for the considered earthquakes is well described by a power-law which is analogous to Omori's law. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
The fractal dimension and forecasting of financial time series
Kaplan, Robert ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Džmuráňová, Hana (referee)
In this thesis, we strive to build on the fractal market hypothesis and to develop two methods which aim to reveal whether the fractal dimension, as a property of the short memory, can be applied for forecasting of financial time series. In the first one, we use ten world market indices and repeatedly estimate the fractal dimension by boxcount, Hall-Wood, and Genton estimators on fixed number of returns and make one step ahead forecasts by AR(1) and ARMA(1,1) models; then, we look whether forecast errors from realized returns are lower when the fractal dimension is estimated lower. The second method incorporates only the fractal dimension and studies, if the sign of return persists in next period more likely with lower fractal dimension. The results indicate that the short memory is truly present in the markets and the fractal dimension may be potentially useful for prediction and increased profit for investors. However, the significance of our results is not strong. We recommend more sophisticated methods and models for further research.
Google Econometrics: Unemployment in Visegrad Countries
Pavlíček, Jaroslav ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between job-related Google search query indices and unemployment rate in Visegrad countries. We found that the unemployment rate generally moves in the same direction as the search volume index for the job-related term. The series of Google search query indices also proved useful for prediction-making. Models with Google series showed lower MAE and RMSE of static forecast compared to base models in all four countries. However, only models for Poland and Slovakia showed potential for nowcasting. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

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