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Agent-based modeling of dual currency economy
Vlk, Bořivoj ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (advisor) ; Klinger, Tomáš (referee)
1 Abstract Thesis describes close relationship between Dynamic programming and rein- forcement learning algorithms on the example of a model of a dual currency economy. Dynamic programming is methodology used for deriving equilibria of Search-Theoretic equilibrium monetary models, which provide evidence for emergence of fiat currency or emergence of internationally circulating curren- cies without any human institutions. Particular previously published Search- Theoretic framework of dual currency economy is used as a background for de- velopment of Agent-based Computational model. Both models are compared based on their ability to reach specified equilibria and their assumptions, with the conclusion, that models are closely related and with the same assumptions would have the same results. Agent-based model also provides possibility of relaxing assumptions on perfect information distribution and static environ- ment. In this setting, the model will reach different equilibria, that correspond better to the real human behavior, observed in previously published laboratory experiments. JEL Classification D83, E40 Keywords Agent-based Modeling, Currency, Currency switch, Dollarization Author's e-mail borivoj.vlk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jskuhrovec@gmail.com
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Systemic risk and sovereign crises: modelling interconnections in the financial system
Klinger, Tomáš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis focuses on the link between financial system and sovereign debt crises through sovereign support to banks on one hand and banks' exposures to weak sovereigns on the other. After illustrating the main relationships on the recent financial crisis, we construct an agent-based network model of an artificial financial system allowing us to analyse the effects of state support on systemic stability and the feedback loops of risk transfer back into the financial system. First, the model is tested with various parameter settings in Monte Carlo simulations and second, it is calibrated to the real world data using a unique dataset put together from various sources. Our analyses yield the following key results: Firstly, in the short term, all the support measures improve the systemic stability. Secondly, in the longer run, the effects of state support depend on several parameters but still there are settings in which it significantly mitigates the systemic crisis. Finally, there are differences among the effects of the different types of support measures.
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Systemic risk and sovereign crises: modelling interconnections in the financial system
Klinger, Tomáš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis focuses on the link between financial system and sovereign debt crises through sovereign support to banks on one hand and banks' exposures to weak sovereigns on the other. After illustrating the main relationships on the recent financial crisis, we construct an agent-based network model of an artificial financial system allowing us to analyse the effects of state support on systemic stability and the feedback loops of risk transfer back into the financial system. First, the model is tested with various parameter settings in Monte Carlo simulations and second, it is calibrated to the real world data using a unique dataset put together from various sources. Our analyses yield the following key results: Firstly, in the short term, all the support measures improve the systemic stability. Secondly, in the longer run, the effects of state support depend on several parameters but still there are settings in which it significantly mitigates the systemic crisis. Finally, there are differences among the effects of the different types of support measures.
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Banking Regulation: Assessment and Simulation of Regulatory Measures
Klinger, Tomáš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis focuses on international banking regulation, particularly the capital adequacy requirements known as the Basel Accords. In the first part, we study the rationale for regulating the banks and describe the evolution of the Basel Accords, including the newly presented measures known as Basel III. The main conclusion of this part is that the regulation is heavily shaped by the banks themselves and does not always serve the best for protecting the financial system. In the second part dedicated to systemic risk modelling, we first introduce the used methodology and then build an agent-based model which enables us to simulate the impacts of various types of negative shocks given various settings of the banking system and the regulatory environment, including the capital and liquidity measures. Our simulations show firstly that sufficient capital buffers are crucial for systemic stability, secondly that the discretionary measures have little effect once a crisis breaks out and thirdly that liquidity measures are a relevant regulatory tool.
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