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Usability of contractual information for prediction of household energy consumption volume
Škorvaga, Cyril ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Khymych, Olha (referee)
5 Abstract This thesis investigates usability of contractual information, enriched with publicly available sociodemographic and environmental statistics, for predicting household energy consumption volume. The aim is to assess the usability of this type of information to enhance prediction accuracy as well as to uncover relationships between energy consumption and various independent variables derivable from the contractual information, such as appliance groups, location, age, and sex. Regression trees, a machine learning technique, are employed to develop a prediction model. Thesis focuses on households in the Czech Republic. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the prediction model, with low bias and improved accuracy compared to existing estimators for newly set meter points. The inclusion of regional-level variables enhances prediction accuracy only moderately. However, patterns derived from extensive datasets yield statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of these variables. Challenges in incorporating certain variables and lack of longitudinal data limit the study. Future research directions may include exploring how different customer groups react to time- variant factors to enhance the accuracy and applicability of energy consumption predictions. The findings provide utility...
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The impacts of battery electric vehicles production on material use
Pěnkavová, Markéta ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the material impact of the BEV production with the main focus on the BEV battery material demand. This is done using the life cycle analysis (LCA) along with detailed analysis of the battery material demand which is then linked to dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The hybrid form of a fully dynamic CGE model is used to estimate the vehicle stock and annual new registrations for five different vehicle technologies (BEV, PHEV, Petrol, Diesel, CNG) in 2015 to 2050 in the Czech republic. These estimates are done for the business as usual scenario and then six different policy scenarios. The effects of direct government subsidy on BEV purchase are modelled along with the impacts of increase in ICEV registration tax, mineral oil tax surge or an expansion in charging stations market. Consequently, the results from CGE modelling are combined with LCA as the detailed BEV battery material composition data are used to estimate the material impact of increased BEV usage. The results from CGE modelling show a clear increasing trend in BEV usage in the future years for the baseline scenario, in addition, the modelled government scenarios incentivizing the BEV usage were shown to have a pos- sitive effect on BEV sales in the Czech republic while...
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International competition in aircraft market
Dubinský, Matej ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Suleymanov, Mahir (referee)
This thesis investigates aspects of Boeing - Airbus competition on the field of large commercial aircraft. By analyzing action-reaction dynamics in M&A strategies, introductions of new models and trade disputes, namely inter- actions with regional jet manufacturers and Airbus's reaction on the intro- duction of 787, we observe that mimicking competitor's strategy does not necessarily guarantee increase of the market share. We collect and analyze data on wide-body aircraft sales and prices from 2004 to 2018 to find the most valuable parameter for customers. The results show the price being the most important and a market segmentation present, while medium and long-range wide-body segments are more sensitive to price changes within the segment than across. From the qualitative attributes of an aircraft, range is a more important factor than seating. Finally, we question the inaccura- cies of demand estimations for A380 before its launch. Unpredictable events and factors unobservable by an economic model are found to have a drastic impact on the real demand and the estimations ought to be accepted with caution. Keywords: Demand for aircraft, commercial aviation, duopoly, market share, demand estimation, market segmentation, wide-body aircraft. Author's email: 39131651@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's email:...
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Overconfidence and retail investors: case of a "kangaroo" market
Mitro, Tomáš ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
In recent times, financial markets have undergone major changes. Availability of participating on trading activity on the market has increased thanks to zero-fee brokerages. New assets, cryptocurrencies, have become a mainstream invest- ment option. A global pandemic has brought uncertainty and large volatility. In this thesis, I aim to study how these new market conditions have affected presence of overconfidence during the period of early 2019 to early 2022. I explain in what forms can overconfidence patterns be observed in people and on financial markets. Then I test for presence of these patterns using four hypotheses. Findings of this thesis suggest that there is no significant differ- ence of overconfidence manifestation between stock data and cryptocurrency data. Results suggest that riskiness of assets affects how strongly are the pat- terns of overconfidence detected. Finally, different patterns of overconfidence are detected for different frequencies of data, suggesting connection between overconfidence and retail investors. JEL Classification G40, G12, C32 Keywords overconfidence, retail investors, cryptocurrency, trading Title Overconfidence and retail investors: the case of a 'kangaroo' market
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Three Essays on Asymmetric Information in SME Finance and Microfinance
Wang, Yao ; Drábek, Zdenek (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee) ; Brada, Josef C. (referee) ; Kutan, Ali M. (referee)
This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on asymmetric information problem in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) finance and Microfinance. The aim of the thesis is to address the key problem in the credit rationing in the SME finance and microfinance and strive to improve the credit analyzing model with the help of soft information. The first essay investigates the factors that hinder the growth of SMEs using a World Bank dataset, and access to finance is found to be their biggest constrain to growth. Asymmetric information between small business owners and banks generates high interest rates, complex application procedures and high collateral requirements, which are found to be the biggest obstacles business owners face when they seek external financing. Small business owners who cannot get loans from banks will turn to microfinance as an alternative source of funds. In the second essay, a new dataset from disintermediated Peer to Peer (P2P) lending market is used to investigate credit rationing efficiency when there is no financial intermediary. The results show the existence of adverse selection where investors are predisposed to making inaccurate diagnoses of signals and gravitate to borrowers with low creditworthiness, while inadvertently screening out those with high...
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Examining Innovation-Growth View and Innovation-Fragility View: A Case of European Countries
Xu, Yunqiao ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Radošević, Slavo (referee) ; Hanzlík, Petr (referee)
This thesis examines the innovation-growth view and innovation-fragility view on the impacts of financial innovation on banking performances in 22 European countries. It focuses on three aspects of analysis: the relationship between financial innovation and bank growth, the relationship between financial innovation and bank stability, and the relationship between financial innovation and banking performance reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic. The panel data sample consists of 4479 active banks in 22 European Union countries from 2008 to 2020. This paper uses the fixed effects model. The paper finds that financial innovation contributes to both bank asset growth rate and bank loan growth rate. Banks with lower market shares, higher loan to asset ratios, and higher tier 1 capital ratios have faster asset growth rates compared to others. Financial R&D intensity value added leads to both lower bank z-score and lower log bank z-score, while the ratio of off-balance sheet items to total assets leads to a higher log bank z-score. There is also evidence for cross-country variation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, off-balance sheet items divided by total assets negatively impacts the change in ROA for banks between 2018 and 2020, which supports the innovation-fragility view.
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Impacts of Brexit referendum on European banks: evidence from Country-by-Country Reporting
Moravec, Petr ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
1 Abstract In the negotiation period of Brexit in the years 2016-2019, banks in the UK had to plan their activity based on the expectation of whether they would have passporting rights in the future or not. The referendum's consequences may foreshadow what the actual Brexit will entail. This master thesis investigates the impact of the Brexit referendum in 2016 on the banking activity of the 45 largest European banks during the negotiation period. I use gravity analysis for inter-country transactions, and a brand-new "Synthetic Difference in Differences", together with Synthetic Control and standard Difference in Differences, for intra-country transactions. Although all of these methods were used in the literature in the context of the Brexit referendum, the Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR) dataset that I use has not yet been used in such a context. I use turnover reported in CbCR by European banks as a proxy for banking activity in the years 2013-2019 and, thus, have four pre-treatment years (i.e., 2013-2016) and three post- treatment years (i.e., 2017-2019). Using the gravity model, I discovered empirical evidence that banks reported lower turnover since the Brexit referendum in their partner countries by between 14.5% and 44.6% relative to their domestic country. Yet, banks that have British...
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Modelling ethanol production in simultaneous equations model of global food demand and supply
Kozák, Miroslav ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
This thesis conducts an econometric analysis for the relationship between food price and ethanol production. A system of simultaneous equation models for the demand and supply for food are estimated, paying attention to the effect of ethanol production. The two-stage and three-stage least-squares estimation methods are adopted, which explicitly account for endogeneity in the system. Using annual data from 1981 to 2020, it is found that the ethanol production has little economic impact on food price. This may be closely related with inelastic demand and supply with respect to price that have been found in this study, where exogenous shocks such as an increase of ethanol production may have small effects on price. JEL Classification C12, C13, D12 Keywords Ethanol, Endogeneity, Food Price, Elasticity, Si- multaneous Equations Model Title Modelling ethanol production in simultaneous equations model of global food demand and sup- ply Author's e-mail kozakmiroslav92@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail karel-janda@seznam.cz
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The Relationship Between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries
Gayibov, Amral ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Šestořád, Tomáš (referee)
The Relationship Between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries The final conclusion on Renewable Energy consumption (REN consumption) and the Economic Growth relationship is still absent. This thesis focused on filling the gap in this phenomenon in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Ten selected countries from the CEE region are analyzed during the period 1990- 2016 using panel data, the possible effects of Carbon dioxide emissions, population, R&D, and FDI are also examined as well as Economic growth. The results indicate that there is a non-linear relationship between Renewable Energy consumption and Economic growth, the population is positively affecting REN consumption as well, however, CO2 emissions, R&D, and FDI indicated statistical insignificance in REN consumption. According to the empirical results, the capacity of the selected countries to reach REN consumption targets is also examined in the paper.
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Weather risk in the natural gas market
Vyležík, Tomáš ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Gapko, Petr (referee)
This thesis deals with the impact of weather on the natural gas market. We describe the development of the natural gas market in the recent past and its current structure. Both these contingencies contributed to the growing importance of hedging against weather risk. Weather is unambiguously the primary determinant of demand in the natural gas market. For that reason, we build a model predicting consumption in the Czech natural gas market with respect to its temperature sensitivity. Such an analysis frequently serves as the first indicator of the need for weather risk hedging, which is since the 90's commonly done with weather derivatives. Therefore we go through so called burn analysis that determines the fair price of an option with regard to past temperature measurements.
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