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Helicopter Drop of Money - Is It Feasible in Practice?
Gábrišová, Nela ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Adam, Tomáš (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to discuss the famous Milton Friedman's concept of Helicopter Drop of Money in context of its applicability in the real world as a possible solution to liquidity trap. For better understanding, the thesis briefly de- scribes conduct of traditional and unconventional monetary policies. Key focus is put on describing assumptions necessary for the concept to yield desirable economic outcomes, and on detailed analysis of periods when zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Furthermore, roles of agents involved in execution of the concept, and important channels of transmission process are discussed from idealised theoretical view to real world possibilities of feasible execution. Additionally, prac- tical experience with direct cash distribution in Australia, and with quantitative easing programmes in Japan and the USA are explained. The last part analyses effects of increased monetary base on CPI inflation, money multiplier M2, and GDP in Japan and the USA using vector autoregression. JEL Classificiation E31, E43, E51, E52 Keywords Helicopter drop of money, quantitative easing, monetary base, liquidity trap, zero lower bound Author's email nela.gabrisova@gmail.com Supervisor's email tomas.holub@cnb.cz
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Should monetary policy pay attention to financial stability? A DSGE approach
Žáček, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
After the recent financial crisis of 2007, a connection between monetary policy and financial stability has started to be thoroughly investigated. One of the particular areas of this research field deals with the role of various financial variables in the monetary policy rules. The main purpose of this research is to find whether direct incorporation of the financial variables in the monetary policy rule can bring macroeconomic benefits in terms of lower volatility of inflation and output. So far, the main emphasis of the research has been placed on the investigation of the augmented Taylor rules in the context of a closed economy. This thesis sheds light on the performance of the augmented Taylor rules in a small open economy. For this purpose, a New Keynesian DSGE model with two types of financial frictions is constructed. The model is calibrated for the Czech Republic. The thesis provides four conclusions. First, incorporation of the financial variables (asset prices and the volume of credit) in the monetary policy rule is beneficial for macroeconomic stabilization in terms of lower implied volatilities of inflation and output. Second, the usefulness of the augmented monetary policy rule is the most apparent in case of the shock originating abroad. Third, there is a strong link between the financial and the...
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Mongolia
Batmunkh, Sanjidmaa ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kocourek, David (referee)
This thesis investigates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, and its non-linearity and asymmetry effect in Mongolia. The recursive VAR model and non-linear econometric model are applied using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013. We find that exchange rate pass-through is high and incomplete both in the short and in the long run in Mongolia. There is a statistically significant asymmetry effect, which states that impact of exchange rate depreciation on consumer price is higher than appreciation. However, we do not find an evidence of non-linearity in consumer price reaction to the large and small absolute changes of the exchange rate relative to its sample average and median as a threshold level. Additionally, we estimate the importance of the exchange rate shock for the consumer price variation using variance decomposition technique. In spite of this relatively high pass through, the exchange rate shocks explain a relatively small percentage of the variation in CPI inflation. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools at the Zero Lower Bound: A DSGE Approach
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Franče, Václav (referee)
The central bank is not able to further ease monetary conditions once it ex- hausts the space for managing short-term policy rate. Then it has to turn its attention to unconventional measures. The thesis provides a discussion about the suitability of different unconventional policy tools in the Czech situation while the foreign exchange (FX) interventions have proven to be the most appropriate choice. A New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model estimated for the Czech Republic is enhanced to model the FX interventions and to compare dif- ferent monetary policy rules at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The thesis provides three main findings. First, the volatility of the real and nominal macroeconomic variables is magnified in the response to the domestic demand shock, the for- eign financial shock and the foreign inflation shock. Second, the volatility of prices decreases significantly if the central bank adopts price-level or exchange rate targeting rule. Third, intervening to fix the nominal exchange rate on some particular target or to correct a misalignment of the real exchange rate from its fundamentals serves as a good stabilizer of prices while intervening to smooth the nominal exchange rate movements increases the overall macroeconomic volatility at the ZLB. 1
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Current account adjustment in the Baltic countries
Vostřák, David ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šopov, Daniel (referee)
In last twenty years, the Baltic countries have experienced turbulent develompents of their current accounts. Deficits on these accounts were often substantially above 10% of GDP and there was active discussion about their sustainibility. We will look in this work on the developments of the current accounts both from practical and theoretical point of view. The later is made with usage of an intertemporal model of representative agent, who maximazes his utility by optimizing his consumption profile over infinite time horizon. This model is then used in empirical part, where we compare estimated values of the current accounts with their real values. We assume that expectations about future values of key variables are realized by following the vector autoregression of order one. The results of this work suggest that big deficits in past were caused by high expectations about growth rates of the economies. Decreasing of this expectations then resulted in the adjustments of the current accounts. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools at the Zero Lower Bound: A DSGE Approach
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Maršál, Aleš (referee)
The central bank is not able to further ease monetary conditions once it ex- hausts the space for managing short-term policy rate. Then it has to turn its attention to unconventional measures. The thesis provides a discussion about the suitability of different unconventional policy tools in the Czech situation while the foreign exchange (FX) interventions have proven to be the most appropriate choice. A New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model estimated for the Czech Republic is enhanced to model the FX interventions and to compare dif- ferent monetary policy rules at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The thesis provides three main findings. First, the volatility of the real and nominal macroeconomic variables is magnified in the response to the domestic demand shock, the for- eign financial shock and the foreign inflation shock. Second, the volatility of prices decreases significantly if the central bank adopts price-level or exchange rate targeting rule. Third, intervening to fix the nominal exchange rate on some particular target or to correct a misalignment of the real exchange rate from its fundamentals serves as a good stabilizer of prices while intervening to smooth the nominal exchange rate movements increases the overall macroeconomic volatility at the ZLB. 1
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Central Banks' Financial Strength and Monetary Policy
Kadlec, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Lešanovská, Jitka (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to see how effectively can central banks can conduct monetary policy under specific circumstances. Four hypothesis are being examined on the case study of five central banks - the Czech National Bank, the Central Bank of Chile, the Bank of Jamaica, the Central Bank of Argentina and the Swiss National Bank. Firstly this work confirms that solid monetary policy can be applied even if CB is dealing with loss based on inflation targeting success rate of central banks. Secondly, in the case of Czech National Bank using VAR, was concluded that inflation expectations can influence the outcome of CB's monetary policy. In the second part of this hypothesis the expectations from the government side in SNB case were examined. On the case of Argentina the negative effect of adjusting monetary policy was demonstrated. The last part elaborates on the topic of determining optimal capitalisation of central bank.
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What is the appropriate Monetary Policy regime for The Gambia?
Komma, Musukuta ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Turnovec, František (referee)
The Gambia, a small open economy, implements a managed floating exchange rate regime. The central bank (CBG) has the mandate to design and implement monetary policy with the primary aim of achieving price and exchange stability in the economy. In spite of interventions by the CBG, the country continues to experience fluctuations in its exchange rate with several instances of major spikes in recent years. This thesis proposes a solution, through a change of policy regime, to control the long time and disturbing depreciation of the domestic currency. In a vector auto regressive framework, the study investigates sources of the exchange rate variability using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Furthermore, the OCA theory and the pre- conditions of inflation targeting are used to make a choice between a common currency and inflation targeting for the Gambia. The findings from the Johansen test of cointegration suggest that the selected key macroeconomic variables are cointegrated, meaning, they have long run equilibrium. The results of the VECM reveal that error correction mechanism can be achieved in some of the variables. This indicates that there exists the convergence process. In addition, the results from the impulse response analysis put forward that the macroeconomic variables have effect on...
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Currency separation of Czechoslovakia in 1993 - any lessons for the Euro area?
Husek, Daniel ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This thesis analyses important aspects of the Czechoslovak currency separation, its incentives, technical and organizational solutions and the total expense of the operation. The main contribution of this work is (i) comparing the situation in the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic before the currency separation in 1993 with the situation in Euro area countries after 2008 and describing its similarities, (ii) analytical view of a possible application of the solutions used within the separation of the Czechoslovak currency in the context of the Euro area states, and (iii) discussion about possible gains from leaving the European Monetary Union.
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Central bank's Independence, Transparency and Accountability: Comparison between the National Bank of Georgia and the European Central Bank
Nakani, Nino ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
1 Abstract The thesis constructs the indices of independence, transparency and accountability of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and European Central Bank (ECB). The results for the NBG are compared with the ECB and policy recommendations for the NBG based on ECB practice are suggested. The results of the analyses show that the ECB has achieved almost full independence and transparency in conducting the monetary policy but there are less favorable results in case of accountability. The NBG, even though revealed a gradual increase in its independence, transparency and accountability since 1998, still needs to put more effort into improving its autonomy, communication practices and responsibility.
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