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Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach
Opatrný, Matěj ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
In this thesis I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank's commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus its on the impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic control method, which allows me to compute the counter-factual development of the Czech economy in the absence of the commitment. I find that, until the end of 2015, the commitment helped create about 100,000 jobs. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2% for growth in 2015, but only marginally statistically significant, which might be connected to disturbances created by changes in excise taxes. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Income Elasticity of Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Vlach, Tomáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
If policymakers address water scarcity with the demand-oriented approach, the income elasticity of water demand is of pivotal importance. Its estimates, however, differ considerably. We collect 307 estimates of the income elasticity of water demand reported in 62 studies, codify 31 variables describing the estimation design, and employ Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty inherent to any meta-analysis. The studies were published between 1972 and 2015, which means that this meta-analysis covers a longer period of time than two previous meta-analyses on this topic combined. Our results suggest that income elasticity estimates for developed countries do not significantly differ from income elasticity estimates for developing countries and that different estimation techniques do not systematically produce different values of the income elasticity of water demand. We find evidence of publication selection bias in the literature on the income elasticity of water demand with the use of both graphical and regression analysis. We correct the estimates for publication selection bias and estimate the true effect beyond bias, which reaches approximately 0.2. 1
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Monetary Expansion and Economic Crises: An Austrian Perspective
Jára, Karel ; Průša, Jan (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The study of economic crises has been a major topic of interest in economics since at least the Great Depression and it has come to the fore once again after the latest crisis of late 2000s. It has also been one of the key themes for the Austrian school of economics in the form of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), which puts emphasis on monetary factors influencing capital structure of the economy. In this thesis we provide a comprehensive exposition of the distinctive points of Austrian approach to the study of markets, the ABCT's propositions and conclusions and also the most important criticism of the theory and replies to it. The theoretical part is accompanied by an empirical illustration on the economy of the United States of America in the period starting at the end of the latest crisis. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The Effect of Distance on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis
Tlustá, Anna ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
Over the time the effect of distance has became an essential component for understanding international trade flows. The main goal of my bachelor thesis is to collect specific data from each study concerning the distance effect and design meta-analysis based on this dataset. I build my work on the data published by Anne-Celia Disdier and Keith Head (The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade) that were relevant in 2006. I examine 1470 estimates reported in 130 studies. Since the previous meta-analysis does not include all required methods to reveal the publication bias, I focus mainly on this issue by incorporating all the appropriate tests. Finally, I disprove the argument that distance effects on bilateral trade decline over time and I explain the presence of heterogeneity among the estimates. 1
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Does Daylight Saving Time Save Energy?: A Meta-Analysis
Herman, Dominik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
Daylight saving time energy savings have always represented a contentious topic requiring empirical evidence for, or against. Unfortunately, as the conclusions are miscellaneous-without an evident pattern of heterogeneity occurrence-insisting on particular case studies and narrative literature reviews seems to be insufficient. In this thesis, set of various studies concerning the effect of daylight saving time on energy savings is examined through meta-regression analysis to provide an accurate estimate of the effect corrected from publication bias, and other distorting and deflecting effects. We find that the mean reported estimate in the literature suggests 0.3% energy savings; our results suggest no signs of publication bias. On the contrary, the study design turned to be a substantial determinant of the primary literature findings. The thesis provides a unique overview for this is the first meta-analysis conducted on the daylight saving time energy savings. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Various Estimation Techniques of the Gravity Model of Trade
Davidová, Lucie ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with alternative estimation possibilities of the gravity model in trade. We provide the reader with a synthetic methodological overview of the technical problems with the estimation of gravity equations. Consequently, we test for the heterogeneity of data sets used in gravity models of trade which leads us to a conclusion that behavioural patterns of exporters and importers built in the datasets are very complicated and a single generalized specification of gravity equation can lead to bias in estimates and/or to similarly generalized conclusions that hide important robust idiosyncrasies in behavior present in some subsamples of economic agents. Both the theory of estimation techniques and dataset heterogeneity are applied in the empirical part estimating Austria's export function.
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A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Minimum Wage Increases on Prices
Vavřičková, Jana ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Švarcová, Natálie (referee)
As an economically as well as politically sensitive topic, labor market interventions stir up discussions among professionals as well as general public. Most economists take negative stance against minimum wage policies providing arguments backed by theoretical reasoning rather then sound empirical evidence. Knowledge of labor market outcomes and their transmission channel to other segments of the economy are till nowadays limited and inconsistent. Neither empirical research in the field contributes to a uniform consent on the impact of minimum wage hikes on the price level. Moreover, the reported estimates display large heterogeneity and after a brief inspection reveal that the field is infested with publication selectivity. A uniquely constructed dataset consisting of 469 estimates of the price effect of minimum wage changes and their associated characteristics is analyzed using a set of statistical tools generally known as meta-analysis. The method is a powerful tool nowadays widely used in empirical research to synthesize and systematically evaluate sometimes inconsistent research results. While the study finds no consistent evidence of an actual link between minimum wage hikes and inflationary pressures, the empirical results show strong presence of publication selectivity. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Income Elasticity of Electricity Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Hauzr, Marek ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
In this thesis we look over the previous studies on income elasticity of electricity demand and on previous meta-analysis on the topic. We outline the meta-analytical tools and we carry out the MRA itself. We show the presence of publication bias and that the elasticity's true effect is lower than commonly thought, from 8 times less than the mean estimate in short-run to 2 times less than the mean estimate in long-run. To our knowledge this thesis is the first meta-analysis on this topic that takes publication bias into account. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Gravity model for Czech Republic - Test of the effects of indirect trade
Wlazel, Marek ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to incorporate the effects of the indirect trade into the gravity model for Czech Republic. Using data from the recently released OECD-WTO TiVA database, a panel of 56 countries in 5 years between 1995 and 2009 is constructed. The traditional approach of estimating the log- linear form of the equation is questioned and in line with current academic research, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method is applied. The empirical analysis does not reveal any unambiguous effect of adjusting the gross exports for their foreign content; it rather confirms that Czech ex- ports are significantly driven by the demand for German exports and finds that they are the higher the greater is the share of services value added. Furthermore, it is found that the destination of Czech exports is not signif- icantly determined by target country's participation in global value chains. JEL Classification C13, C23, C67, F14, F60 Keywords gravity model, indirect trade, trade in value added, Czech Republic, Poisson regression, panel data Author's e-mail marek.wlazel@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vsemerak@yahoo.com
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