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Analysis of the Balance of Payments of Slovak Republic
Romaňáková, Anna ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Ondřich, Libor (referee)
The aim of the bachelor thesis is to give compact overview of development of the balance of payments of Slovak Republic from 1993 to 2008. First and second part describe theoretical resources for better understanding of relationship within the frame of balance of payments. Empirical section is divided into two chapters. The third chapter contains description of the development of each account. The fourth chapter focuses on the analysis of both international investment position and external debt along with the analysis of the most important balances, that explain the slovak external relationship with the rest of the world.
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Inflation targeting as a monetary policy in the world and Czech Republic: Appraisal of quality of the unconditional forecasts of CNB
Pivoluska, Jakub ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The aim of the paper is a research of monetary policy based on the concept of inflation targeting in countries including Czech Republic. It systematically monitors the evolution in thinking of policy makers, which led into definition of price stability as the final goal of the monetary policy. It contains a description of transformation of transmission mechanisms in 20th century concluding to inflation targeting mechanisms. The paper defines the main theoretical elements of inflation targeting, surveying some special features of implementation in Czech Republic. The main focus of the paper is assessment of unconditional inflation forecast regularly released by the Czech National Bank. The naive forecast founded on previously known inflation is considered as referential group opposing the CNB forecast. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the CNB has been more successful in long term inflation forecasting than in forecasting of short term changes in inflation dynamics. The analysis did not identify statistically significant deviation of the forecast. This fact was enabled by short term of considerable overshooting of the forecast in 2008. At the same time I have come to conclusion that the CNB forecast is significantly more accurate than naive forecast and that the CNB forecast has an indisputable positive influence on the shape of inflation expectations in the economy.
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Possibilities and methods of FX risk managing
Houdek, Ondřej ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
This paper focuses on businesses participating in international trade in terms of their possibilities to eliminate FX risk. There are currency derivatives analysed in the paper with en emphasis on their value drivers. I've also mentioned interest rate differentials, expacted exchange rates and anticipated asssets yields as their key value drivers. A practical part deals with a systematic application of singular derivatives to long positions. The examined period is 2008. The results indicate that derivatives don't protect businesses from loses if there is a medium or long-run domestic currency appreciation involved. It basicaly turned out that cash-flow converted to czech crown kept deteriorating as if there were no hedging instruments applied.
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Analysis of the Balance of Payments of the Republic of Armenia
Davtyan, Emil ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
This bachelor thesis analyzes the development of the balance of payments of Armenia from 1993 to 2008. The work is divided into theoretical and practical part. In the theoretical part is a general description of the balance of payments, its history, the compilation process, the basic characteristics of main accounts and balances necessary to analyze the international economic equilibrium. At the practical part is described the history of Armenia with an emphasis on the transition to market system, development of partial accounts and balances of the balance of payments and their analysis.
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Nominal and real convergence between the Czech Republic and the euro area
Salaj, Petr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to discuss how well the Czech economy is prepared to enter the eurozone. It first briefly describes the conception and development of the European Economic and Monetary Union, the Maastricht criteria and the economic convergence criteria. It further considers the potential advantages and disadvantages offered to the Czech Republic from EMU membership, and then judges the Czech Republic's fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria. The last chapter focuses on the current economic convergence between the Czech Republic and the euro area. Finally the work evaluates the position of the Czech economy and concludes that in the short term the Czech Republic is not ready to adopt the Euro.
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Alternative methods of estimating potential output and the output Gap: An application to Czech
Krasnovský, Pavol ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Kuncl, Martin (referee)
The text discusses some used methods for estimating potential product and output gaps based on aggregated data for the Czech Republic. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output gaps calculated with different methods is generally low , the methods imply different turning points. To conclude, the methods for estimating potential product a used have only limited information content for macroeconomics.
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Theory and Practice of Management of Foreign Exchange Exposure
Manevski, Bojan ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
This academic paper gives explanation the main points of the foreign exchange market and the FOREX risk management strategies that companies develop. Reading trough this paper we get a clear overview of the Foreign Exchange market, the main players and their function. Get a detailed picture of the Exchange rate system, its development and current status; Hedging strategies and the central roll they have in the foreign exchange risk management of companies.
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Financial frauds and their impact while investing
Hafizi, Ani ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
The thesis analyzes the biggest international fraud cases, including the reasons why a fraud is caused and the way it affects individuals, organizations and firms. My aim is to warn people of different ways of financial cheating. The first part explains the reasons and the ways how fraud cases were caused in different years and countries, for example Matrix scheme, Ponzi scheme, scheme of American businessman Madoff. The second part is concretely concentrated on Albania. Albanian pyramid schemes in 1997 allow us to better understand the fraud effects. It analyzes the economic, political and social effects and the preventive measures that state should have taken, in order to prevent such a big collapse.
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The causes, course and consequences of the american. mortgage crisis and global financial crisis
Tugai, Victor ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
Currently world is in the deepest and the largest crisis during the Great depression in the United states in 1929-1933. But today's global financial crisis not a periodical crisis that occurs in the past. Its scope and impact are much deeper and the consequences are serious for the whole world. The causes of the current crisis can be found in the United States. This work explains why the causes of the current crisis to be found in the United States and how are related mortgage crisis in the U.S. and world financial crisis. Also shows the impact of the global financial crisis on the Czech Republic.
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Macro-economic costs analysis and time determination of joining European Monetary Union
Zámečník, Michal ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to discover a suitable instant of time for the Czech Republic to join European Monetary Union. I am analyzing dependence between monetary policies of the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) themselves as well as in relation to essential Czech macroeconomic indicators. My observation is focused on interest rate policies represented by operative interest rates, on monetary policies represented by indices of nominal effective exchange rates and on convergence monitoring. The analytical instruments I used in the thesis are correlation analyses, linear trends, the Granger causality test and the Impulse-Reaction test. Besides, my thesis examines fulfillment of the Convergence (Maastricht) criteria in the Czech Republic and other central European countries. This thesis also examines impact of the European monetary policy on some Eurozone member countries.
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