|
|
Effect of minimum wages: do regional data tell a different story?
Májková, Tereza ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (referee)
This thesis examines the effects of an increase of minimum wage level on unemployment, employment, disposable income and risk of poverty. We contribute to the existing literature by directly comparing results resulting from two similar datasets, one working with national, one with regional data. We use different sets of explanatory variables to see whether they affect the results of the estimation. On national level, our results confirm positive effect of minimum wages on employment of adults and on disposable income - but these findings were not confirmed on regional level. With respect to the regional perspective, the results are however subject to substantial uncertainty and are prone to substantial sensitivity to empirical specification. We attribute this uncertainty mainly to the quality of the data - small number of observations together with large heterogeneity. JEL Classification E02, E24, J08, J30 Keywords minimum wages, employment effect, disposable income, risk of poverty, panel data, NUTS 2 regions, comparison Author's e-mail majkovat@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz
|
|
|
The Elasticity of Trade with Respect to Trade Costs: A Meta-Analysis
Tlustá, Anna ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to present a meta-analysis of studies that are focused on the relation between the international trade flow and the trade costs. The effect of trade costshasbecomeoneofthekeyelementstoresolvethesixmajor puzzles in the bilateral trade flow. I examine 1,090 estimates of the trade cost effect reported in 58 studies, codify 51 aspects of study design that may influencetheestimates.Iuse meta-regression analysis to investigate why trade costs effects vary. The results suggest that different methods and mainly data characteristics systematically affect the estimated trade costs effects. I find evidence for publication selection bias by using the appropriate tests. The authors of primary studies tend to report preferentially large estimates of the elasticity of trade with respect to trade costs. The evidence for publication selection bias is stronger for studies reported in peer-reviewed journals thanfor unpublished studies.
|
|
|
What is the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna?
Jančovič, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...
|
|
|
Fiscal consolidations and their effects on income inequality. An empirical analysis of the distributional effects of austerity, using a novel approach to identify consolidation compositions
Scheibe, Conrad ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Douarin, Elodie (referee)
This thesis investigates the effects of fiscal consolidations on income inequality. Although fiscal consolidations have become a popular economic research topic, their effects on income inequality, which itself has gained broad popularity lately, are relatively unexplored. Therefore, this thesis econometrically assesses the development of Gini coefficients during and after austerity measures. The paper applies regression analysis with panel data techniques using a sample of 17 high-income countries during the period of 1978 - 2009. It finds that a consolidation, measured by a deliberate improvement of the primary budget balance significantly increases income inequality of the referring country. In detail, an improvement of the primary budget balance about one percent of GDP is associated with an increase in market income inequality of 0.6% and a smaller increase in net income inequality in the year after. Moreover, this thesis explores the discretionary effect of different consolidation compositions. To do so, it introduces a novel approach to differentiate between consolidations that are either exclusively undertaken through spending cuts, tax increases or a combination of both. Thereby, it is found that especially tax-only consolidations tend to be equality-friendly but also rather small in size...
|
|
|
Global Spillover Effects from Unconventional Monetary Policy During the Crisis
Solís González, Brenda ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
This work investigates the international spillover effects and transmission channels of Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP) of major central banks from United States, United Kingdom, Japan and Europe to Latin-American countries. A Global VAR model is estimated to analyze the impact on output, inflation, credit, equity prices and money growth on the selected countries. Results suggest that indeed, there are international spillovers to the region with money growth, stock prices and international reserves as the main transmission channels. In addition, outcomes are different between countries and variables implying not only that transmission channels are not same across the region but also that the effects of the monetary policy are not distributed equally. Furthermore, it is found evidence that for some countries transmission channels may have transformed due to the crisis. Finally, effects of UMP during the crisis were in general positive with exception of Japan indicating that policies from this country brought more costs than benefits to the region. Keywords Zero Lower Bound, Unconventional Monetary Policy, International Spillovers, Global VAR, GVAR.
|
|
|
The impact of changing exchange rates on Czech companies
Klečka, Michal ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis analyses impact of exchange rate exposure in Czech Republic on sample of ten Czech companies. Empirical part of thesis builds on Nazl, Kar, Akel (2014) and through market-based approach states significant impact of exchange rate exposure for 40 % of companies. Higher robustness of results was achieved through improvements in the methodology which, contrary to related literature, eliminates endogeneity of market index through instrumental variable. Surprisingly, the correlations between exchange rates and stocks of Czech companies are positive. An alternative model considering ROA of individual companies as dependent variable was used to confirm these results. The resulting impact of exchange rate exposure of alternative model is opposite. This inconsistency of the results of both models is confusing. The sudden change in exchange rate policy of the Czech National Bank in November 2013 did not affect the sensitivity of the relationship between exchange rates and stocks. The reaction of stock market in November 2013 indicates that policy change made by CNB was not entirely expected. Contrary to the related literature, higher data aggregation decreases the significance of the exchange rate exposure, signifying higher ability of Czech companies to reduce exchange rate risk in longer...
|
|
|
Potential Output, Output Gap and Great Recession in the Eurozone
Habiňák, Ladislav ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The thesis regarding output gap estimation is divided into two sections. The first part evaluates the latent potential output of euro area since 1998. The emphasis is put on the inquiry of usefulness of such estimates. The main findings resulting from this analysis are that, while ex-post assessment of potential output can serve as an effective tool for description of economy's behaviour in the past, the estimates evaluated in real-time are surrounded by huge amount of uncertainty which causes them to be of low reliability. For example, when searching for a structural break in the development of potential output, estimates of all models lay in one year range suggesting it to happen approximately at the end of 2007. On the other hand, the directions of output gaps evaluated at the end of real time data vintages were the same only 60% times. The second part of the thesis concerns with applicability of output gap estimates to inflation forecasting. The results show very little or no added value of such predictive modelling as autoregressive models of inflation perform comparable or significantly better forecasts for the euro area in medium and short term. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
|
|
|
Endogenous Growth Model, Distance to Frontier, and Labour Market Institutions
Šoltés, Michal ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kopečná, Vědunka (referee)
This thesis studies the effect of generosity of unemployment insurance on economic growth. More generous unemployment insurance is argued to cause an increase in unemployment on the one hand and better job match quality on the other. Our model shows that in the developed countries, there may be some level of unemployment insurance which ensures that the productivity gain offsets the loss due to higher unemployment. On the contrary, in the developing countries, any level of unemployment insurance was revealed to harm economic growth. Moreover, we present strong evidence in favour of a positive effect of unemployment insurance on the aggregate productivity growth. Key words: Unemployment Insurance, Distance to Frontier, Endogenous Growth Model, Technology Growth, Economic Growth
|
|
|
Unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic
Bechný, Jakub ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Pavloková, Kateřina (referee)
This thesis presents an empirical analysis of the unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic on quarterly data from 1999 to 2015. The hysteresis is modelled by allowing for: (i) impact of the cyclical unemployment on the NAIRU; (ii) impact of the long-term un- employment on the NAIRU. Models are written in state space form and estimated using Bayesian approach. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. The results pro- vide robust evidence in favour of the hysteresis in the Czech Republic, but precise size of the hysteresis effect is surrounded by relatively large uncertainty. Posterior mean estimates of key parameters indicate that in response to increase in the cyclical unemployment of 1 percentage point, the NAIRU increases by 0.15 percentage points. The first specification of the hysteresis implies that the hysteresis induced changes in the Czech Republic's NAIRU of at most 1 percentage point. The hysteresis specified as impact of the long-term unemploy- ment on the NAIRU then implies even weaker effect, inducing changes in the NAIRU of at most 0.6 percentage points. The models are estimated jointly with the hybrid Phillips curve identified using survey forecasts as proxies for the expectations. Estimate of the expecta- tions' parameter 0.65 indicates the forward-looking nature of the Czech...
|
|
|
The banking crisis 1929 -1933
Strnadová, Petra ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Hájek, Jan (referee)
The issue of banking crises is of a significant importance due to their impact on the economic situation and having revealed the main causes of a bank distress, it should be possible to avoid some of them in the future by taking appropriate measures. The banking crisis during the Great Depression belongs to the biggest crises in the history and provides a great opportunity to properly examine the behaviour of U.S. banks. Therefore, the aim of my thesis is to identify the key moments of the banking crisis, analyse the adopted policies and regulations, reveal the main causes of bank suspensions and to examine the bank balance sheets to state which type of bank was the most resilient. The results implied that the crucial event was a fall of a large investment bank in 1930 that initiated the wave of banking panic when banks started fighting against both illiquidity and insolvency problems. The analysis showed that mutual saving banks were the most successful and that the trust of the public together with insufficient deposit insurance are key factors influencing the bank runs. However, the major drawback is considered to be the excessive risk banks were facing even before the stock market crash.
|
guest ::
RSS feed.