National Repository of Grey Literature 157 records found  beginprevious139 - 148next  jump to record: Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Rule-of-thumb consumers in the New Keynesian framework
Adam, Tomáš ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Čech, Jan (referee)
iv Abstract This thesis investigates the effects of government spend- ing on aggregate economic variables in the Czech Republic. The standard RBC and New Keynesian models assume only forward-looking households despite the evidence of a sig- nificant fraction of non-optimizing households. These mod- els do not provide reasonable predictions for the response of consumption: both models predict its fall following a gov- ernment spending shock. Therefore, a variant of the New Keynesian model, where rule-of-thumb households coexist with optimizing households, is used for the analysis. We have found that fiscal policy has a positive impact on output, although government spending multiplier does not exceed one. Also, the impact on consumption is positive for several periods following a fiscal spending shock, which is consistent with the evidence. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E62 Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal multipliers, fiscal VAR, rule- of-thumb consumers
Customer Lifetime Value - Application to Banking Sector
Lajksnerová, Zuzana ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Customer Lifetime Value - Application to Banking Sector Author: Zuzana Lajksnerová Abstract This thesis deals with the calculation of the customer life value for clients of second largest Czech commercial banks - Československá obchodní banka a.s.. The aim is to estimate the revenue each individual brings to the bank within the first year, two, four since creating a profile but also during the whole time he or she remains in their customer base. The first, theoretical part contains of structured overview of the modeling approach from available literature. In the second part, we develop two different models, which are subsequently applied on client data of 2.7 million ČSOB customers. The prediction takes into account both revenues from each product and probability that customer will use this product. For estimation of the two models we use several different econometric methods, thus linear regression, bootstrap, probit and multinomial logit. The results show that demographic data such as age and gender, as well as product related variables, greatly inuence the final level of value of customer. It is also shown that higher potential earnings are associated with men, people of working age and loyal customers.
Can Bayesian econometric methods outperform traditional econometrics in inflation forecasting?
Stráský, Josef ; Netuka, Martin (referee) ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor)
Forecasting of inflation rates has become crucial for both policy makers and private agents who try to understand and react to Central Bank decisions since many Central Banks implemented inflation targeting rules instead of control of monetary aggregates. Inflation forecasting is considered to be very complicated issue because univariate regression models and structural macroeconomic models are usually outperformed by naive random walk model. This work is intended for forecasting inflation in the Czech Republic by employing Bayesian econometric method (namely Bayesian Vector autoregression - BVAR). Bayesian methods proved to be useful in inflation forecasting in developed countries (Fabio Canova: G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve or What Else?, 2007). Bayesian econometrics is one of the most developing fields of econometrics for past two decades. In the centre of the approach is Bayesian probabilistic theory based on conditional probabilities. This probabilistic approach is, however, computationally demanding. Fast computer evolution enables wide applications of Bayesian models. Model estimations are based on combining information from some prior beliefs and from the data. Many different sorts of models have their Bayesian variants (e.g. OLS) but the emphasis in this work is on Bayesian...
Microeconomic models of centrally planned economies
Svoboda, Svatopluk ; Hlaváček, Jiří (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Bachelor thesis deals with centrally planned economies and with methods of modelling of these economic systems. In its first part it generally describes problems of trying to model the centrally planned economy itself and it formally desrcibes situation in which a comunist producer finds himself. Ii also presents a model of producer behavior that is particular for economies with central planning, encountered widely in practice and confirmed by empirical studies. In the next part, various ways available for planning centre to motivate/demotivate producers into passing true information concerning their production possibilietes are presented. The final part tries to find answers to the question if it is possible to reform economic system in diraction to economic efectivity of society, but with preserved framework of central planning. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
Portfolio investment for individual investors : (portfolio recommendations for three case studies)
Žigraiová, Diana ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee) ; Pečená, Magda (advisor)
The thesis focuses on the portfolio investment area with respect to individual investors. It discusses their investment possibilities and behavioural aspects that may be the cause of deviations in investors' behaviour from rationality and which as well have the impact on forming their investment objectives. On the three investor case studies two qualitatitive methods of asset allocation are studied, eventually dividing the content of their investment portfolios between stocks and bonds. Additionally, the extension to the traditional stock and bond allocation is performed by means of real estate, commodities and art and antiques and its appropriateness is analyzed for each case study investor. At the very end of the thesis a quantitative mean-variance optimization method of asset allocation is mentioned.
The Macro-finance Model of the Czech Economy
Urbánková, Jana ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis introduces the macro-finance model of the Czecheconomy by setting the VAR model, which includes components representing theyield curve estimatedwithin theNelson-Siegel framework. The thesis contributes to the current streamof researchby including both the policy interest rateand the interbank interest rateas endogeneous variables in the VAR model, which allows for differentiation between monetarypolicy shocks and shocks to interbank rates. The above-mentioned model then serves as a frameworkfor analyzing interactions betweenfinancial and macroeconomicvariables in the period from 2000 to 2015. The thesis pays special attention to theperiod 2008-2013 and shows that the introduction of the FX commitment in November 2013 had a significant positive effect on GDP and inflation within 12 months after the introduction of the FX commitment. The thesis concludes that exchangeratemovements affectedalmost uniformly short-term and long-terminterest rates, and thus the yield curve slope stayed largelyunaffected by exchangeratemovements.
Determinants of FDI flows in Europe: The Recent Evidence
Korbelius, Vojtěch ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kopečná, Vědunka (referee)
JEL Classification B22, C11, C23, D92, E22, O52 Keywords FDI, Financial crisis, EU, integration Author's e-mail v.korbelius@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz Our work analyses the determinants of FDI in Europe, at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. It finds out that the FDI is positively and significantly influenced by the size of the economy (GDP, growth of GDP), total size of the labor force, openness of the economy and institutional framework. The findings show the EU accession does not have an immediate effect. However, long term membership might positively affect the FDI inflow. According to our analysis the recent financial crisis has changed the main determinants of the FDI inflows. It has warned the investors it is important not to consider only immediate profits but also future prospects. Generally the investment nowadays is below its potential level and the governments should take action to change it, if the FDI is their priority.
Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables
Baxa, Jaromír ; Plašil, M. ; Vašíček, B.
A sharp increase in unemployment accompanied by a relatively muted response of inflation during the Great Recession added further doubts to the validity of the Phillips curve and the existence of a systemic relationship between economic activity and inflation. This paper aims to show to what extent the uncertainty about the choice of proper forcing variable contributes to the ambiguity of the evidence on the Phillips curve in the United States and other G7 countries. We use dynamic model averaging (Raftery et al., 2010), which marries the flexibility of the time-varying parameter framework with the possibility of model switching in each period. Our results show that inflation seems to respond to different measures of economic activity across time and space to a varying extent and no measure of economic activity clearly dominates in all countries or over the whole sample.
Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables
Baxa, Jaromír ; Plašil, Miroslav ; Vašíček, Bořek
A sharp increase in unemployment accompanied by a relatively muted response of inflation during the Great Recession cast further doubts on the validity of the Phillips curve. With the aid of dynamic model averaging (Raftery et al., 2010), this paper aims to highlight that the existence of a systemic relation between real activity and inflation is blurred due to (i) the failure to capture inflationary pressures by means of a single measure of economic activity, and (ii) the existence of a non-linear response of inflation to the driving variable. Based on data for the U.S. and other G7 countries, our results show that the relation between economic activity and inflation is quite sturdy when one allows for more complex assessment of the former. We find that inflation responds to different measures of economic activity across time and space, and no measure of economic activity clearly dominates. The output gap is often outperformed by unemployment-related variables such as the short-term unemployment rate, the unemployment expansion gap, and the unemployment recession gap. Finally, our results confirm a weakening of the inflation–activity relationship (i.e., a flattening of the Phillips curve) in the last decades, which might be attributed to structural changes in the economy and monetary policy, that is robust both across activity measures and across countries.
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Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries
Baxa, Jaromír ; Plašil, M. ; Vašíček, B.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a novel look at the evolution of inflation dynamics in selected Central European (CE) countries. We use the lens of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) nested within a time-varying framework. Exploiting a time-varying regression model with stochastic volatility estimated using Bayesian techniques, we analyze both the closed and open-economy version of the NKPC. The results point to significant differences between the inflation processes in three CE countries. While inflation persistence has almost disappeared in the Czech Republic, it remains rather high in Hungary and Poland. In addition, the volatility of inflation shocks decreased quickly a few years after the adoption of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and Poland, whereas it remains quite stable in Hungary even after ten years’ experience of inflation targeting. Our results thus suggest that the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations varies across CE coutries.

National Repository of Grey Literature : 157 records found   beginprevious139 - 148next  jump to record:
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