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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Mixing of Predictors in Parameter Estimation
 Podlesna, Yana ; Kárný, Miroslav
This bachelor thesis deals with the design of the method for solving the curse of dimensionality arising in the quantitative modeling of complex interconnected systems. The employed predictive models are based on a discrete Markov process. Prediction is based on estimating model parameters using Bayesian statistics. This work contains method for reducing the amount of data needed for prediction in systems with a large number of occurring states and actions. Instead of estimating a predictor dependent on all parameters, the method assumes the use of several predictors, which arise from estimating parametric models based on dependences on different regressors. The behavioral properties of the proposed method are illustrated by simulation experiments.
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Algorithmic Selection of Feasible Preferences
 Siváková, Tereza ; Kárný, Miroslav
This bachelor’s thesis studies the optimal decision making for a discrete Markov decision process with a focus on preferences. By using a fully probabilistic design that introduces the so-called ideal behavior distribution, which has high probability values of preferred behaviors and small probability values of inappropriate behaviors, an optimal decision policy has been found. The thesis constructs an algorithm for selecting the optimal ideal behavior distribution and provides a more general solution than published ones. The thesis also opens a possibility to specify further preferences on selected actions. Properties of the resulting decision making are illustrated on simulated examples.
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