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National Repository of Grey Literature

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	Some exchange rates are more stable than others: short-run evidence from transition countries Bulíř, Aleš The paper investigates empirically the endogenous liquidity nexus of exchange rate determination on a sample of four transition economies. It finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis of a nonlinear error correction process vis-à-vis longer-term trend deviations. The results suggest that early and successful exchange-rate market and financial-account liberalization pays off in terms of depth of the market and, hence, faster adjustment of national currencies to short-term shocks to the exchange rate. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Components of the Czech Koruna Risk Premium in a Multiple-Dealer FX Market Derviz, Alexis The paper proposes a continuous time model of an FX market organized as a multiple dealership. The model reflects a number of salient features of the Czech koruna spot market. The dealers have costly access to the best available quotes. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation Benáček, Vladimír ; Prokop, Ladislav ; Víšek, Jan Á. Using panel data for 29 industries, the study tests alternative specifications of Czech export and import functions. The balance of trade is primarily influenced by the real exchange rate, aggregate demand and tariff changes. Reduced growth of the Czech economy after 1996 was an important factor that has kept the balance of trade at a sustainable level in the medium-term, contributing even to the appreciation of the real exchange rate. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Price convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us? Čihák, Martin ; Holub, Tomáš The paper analyses the price convergence in the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the European Union (EU). Cross-country comparisons based on the International Comparison Project (ICP) 1999 are used. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Microfoundations of the Wage Inflation in the Czech republic Galuščák, Kamil ; Münich, Daniel The study investigates whether microfoundations might increase the predictive power of macroeconomic models of wage inflation. By comparing past predictions to observed values, the study finds that the Phillips curve with the average unemployment rate in districts with prevalently low unemployment rates delivers more accurate predictions of aggregated wage inflation than the Phillips curve with the overall unemployment rate. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing? Flek, Vladislav ; Marková, Lenka ; Popiera, Jiří Using panel data for selected national economies, the study estimates relative price changes stemming from fluctuations in sectoral productivity. Subsequently, it calculates the cross-country CPI-inflation differentials implied by sectorally unbalanced productivity growth, taking into account country-specific weights of non-tradables in consumption (value added) and assuming there are no adjustments in nominal exchange rates. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries Šmídková, Kateřina ; Barrell, Ray ; Holland, Dawn The work employs the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER), taking into account the specific features of countries in the advanced stage of transition. The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes Hlušek, Martin The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Monetary policy and the term spread in a macro model of a small open economy Kotlán, Viktor This paper argues that shortcomings of the single-equation approach may produce results that are biased, and that the predictive ability must be analyzed from within a model framework. It has elected to use a simple macroeconomic model of a small open economy and examine the predictive properties of the term spread from within its framework. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Robust Bayes-type version of classical estimators Hanousek, Jan ; Lachout, Petr Detailed record

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