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Households’ attitudes to infection and to the government measures: the latest survey data
Korbel, Václav ; Novák, Vladimír ; Šoltés, Michal ; Tóth, L.
This study presents Czech people’s real views about the Covid-19 pandemic from a survey carried out on a representative sample of internet users around the 20th March 2020. It thus presents very up-to-date information about people’s attitudes to the ongoing infection and, moreover, to the measures imposed by the government. The findings provide new and important information to be taken into account when planning further measures. For example, if people had not considered the restrictions on free movement or the requirement to wear face masks as appropriate and had not begun implementing them voluntarily, the relevant authorities would have had to enforce these measures. More than half the population is concerned that they will catch the coronavirus. People have substantial confidence in the ability of the government measures to successfully overcome the current situation. The majority of people, around 75 %, declare themselves willing to limit their outdoor movements to essential activities and otherwise stay at home. Even so, almost 53 % of respondents go out every day. If it were to be necessary, many people are prepared to refrain from outdoor and social activities even for months. People believe that there is a moderately high chance of meeting an infected person on the street. Wearing face masks became a matter of course very quickly. 92 % of people only leave their homes with a face mask on, the majority agree that people without face masks should not be allowed into public areas, if they meet someone without a face mask, 42 % of respondents are prepared to tell the person concerned that they should wear a mask and a quarter would express their disapproval by frowning at that person.5 Another study will follow soon after this one, which reveals how reminders about government orders and recommendations (to wear face masks and practice social distancing) affect people’s willingness to abide by them and how the way the measures are communicated affects that willingness. Keep an eye out for more IDEA studies.
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What behavioural economics can teach us about prevention: another way of fighting Covid-19
Bauer, Michal ; Chytilová, Julie
Every one of us can help limit the spread of the Covid-19 virus today, through our everyday behaviour. Research from behavioural science to date has shown how individuals, private organizations and state institutions can all contribute to changes in behaviour that are effective in prevention. Thanks to the studies that have been carried out so far, we know quite a lot about how the virus spreads most frequently and what kinds of behaviour are most effective in preventing that spread. Washing our hands with soap, avoiding touching our faces and stifling any coughs or sneezes into the air are all very effective. However, research has shown that simply being informed about all this is not sufficient for people to change their behaviour. People have a tendency to forget, which is enhanced by tiredness and inattention, many people also tend to procrastinate and not to do things even though they are aware of wanting to do them. Furthermore, it is difficult to change our long-established habits. Most existing research into behavioural prevention is, quite naturally, from developing countries, where the spread of infectious diseases has been a more topical problem than in the economically developed countries. These studies have shown that frequent, simple reminders can be very beneficial. Making hand-washing facilities available to the public does not mean that people will use them. Their placement within the public space and their visibility play a key role. We must think carefully about how to create an environment in which the target\nbehaviour is easily carried out, people are constantly reminded of it, and it gradually becomes automatic. Our habits, which are very hard for us to shake off, often act as a barrier to regular, proper hand-washing at home. People tend to wash their hands too quickly and not thoroughly enough. Even when we know how to wash our hands properly, doing so systematically, several times a day for twenty seconds at a time is no easy task.
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The economics of testing for Covid-19: beware of greater damage than benefit
Kulveit, J. ; Steiner, Jakub
There are limited numbers of tests for Covid-19, especially of the more precise type known as PCR tests. That means they must be used as efficiently as possible, in terms of which people are tested. Efficiency in the use of these tests is not only a matter of revealing how many people are infected, but also has to do with the potential ability of those tested to spread the infection further, which a positive test result can help to prevent. The algorithms by which the short supply of Covid-19 tests is assigned must therefore be grounded in the social, rather than individual benefits of testing. People whose testing brings maximum social benefit should be given priority. The social benefit of testing a particular person is calculated primarily in terms of the a priori likelihood (rough estimation) of that person being infected, based on information about where they live and their lifestyle. The second important criterion is that individual’s epidemiological significance, which is an indication of how much the individual in questions comes into contact with, and is likely to come into further contact with other at-risk people. This can also be established by asking pertinent questions to the individual themselves, complemented if desired by a survey in the place where they live. Although our estimations of the social benefit of testing are based on imprecise and incomplete data, the algorithm for allocating the limited numbers of PCR tests we have that is based on them is more socially effective than blanket use of them for testing anyone suspected of having contracted Covid-19. The greatest social benefit of testing comes from identifying the infection in people whose level of social interaction is high, during the phase of the infection in which they do not yet have any symptoms, that is, in so-called superspreaders. When evaluating the results of any test it is necessary to bear in mind that no test is ever entirely precise (reliable). Although PCR tests are very precise in laboratory conditions, errors can occur when samples are collected in the field, for example through poor sample handling. Our interpretation of the test result is then sensitive to the a priori likelihood that the person in question is infected, which might be low even when the test is positive, because the tests are not entirely reliable. It is not appropriate to use tests in situations in which nothing about the healthcare official’s decision about the next steps to take will change, regardless of the test result. If the healthcare official knows beforehand that they will not change their approach even if the result of the test is surprising, they should not waste one of those rather rare tests on testing the patient in question. Among the general public, testing can create undesirable motives that facilitate the spread of the infection. For example, if only people with a high a priori likelihood of infection are tested, people will exaggerate their own likelihood of being infected in an effort to gain access to testing. That’s why, for example, at the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, some Czechs who wanted to get themselves tested told healthcare officials they had been in Italy, when in fact they had not. Having been approved for testing, they then unnecessarily exposed themselves to the virus at the testing facilities. Social stigma surrounding infection with Covid-19 also poses complications, since it motivates people to conceal any symptoms they are experiencing and avoid being tested. For that reason, it may be sensible not to publicise details of the algorithm according to which individuals might be selected for testing, and to work systematically and intensively to prevent any stigma associated with Covid-19 infection through media campaigns and raising public awareness.
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An economic shock the like of which the world has never seen: we must quickly freeze the economy and then warm it up again (nightly research into the economic literature)
Matějka, Filip
The usual rules of economic stimulus do not apply now, because we actually want this recession. We need to limit meetings and in-person collaboration, the recession should be substantial. On the other hand, it could be exceptionally short. We must put the economy into hibernation, while at the same time preserving as many vital employment ties as possible. We will only be able to start stimulating the economy to increase performance once the greatest health risks are behind us. For now, the authorities must focus on ensuring that businesses and households can survive this period. This is the cheaper strategy, because if employment ties were broken it would take years to renew them, even if the health crisis were to last only a month.
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The Covid-19 pandemic and socio-economic inequality in education
Federičová, Miroslava ; Korbel, Václav
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, schools have been closed since 11th March 2020 and have been obliged to switch to remote teaching. This new situation may, among other effects, further deepen the considerable existing inequalities in education, which are already higher in the Czech Republic than in most other European countries. In this study, we look at various factors that may affect how remote teaching can be related to socioeconomic educational inequalities in the Czech Republic. For the sake of clarity, we distinguish between factors relevant to schools, families, and pupils. The aim of this study is not to describe the current situation but to outline who is most at risk of losing out as a result of remote teaching and where possible measures should be targeted in order to prevent deepening inequalities in education further. In this study, we focus on primary and lower secondary schools, with an emphasis on the lower secondary years.
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How to reawaken the economy: soothe, warm up, say some farewells
Matějka, Filip
This paper summarizes the relevant economic literature to date, combining SIR models and macroeconomic models and discussing the consequences of the pandemic for fiscal and monetary policy. SIR models imply that our fight against the pandemic will only succeed if we are able to achieve a long-term reduction of the reproduction number.
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Macroeconomic policy during the coronavirus epidemic
Kapička, Marek ; Kejak, Michal ; Slavík, Ctirad
This paper summarizes the relevant economic literature to date, combining SIR models and macroeconomic models and discussing the consequences of the pandemic for fiscal and monetary policy. SIR models imply that our fight against the pandemic will only succeed if we are able to achieve a long-term reduction of the reproduction number. Macroeconomic epidemiological models highlight the mutual interaction between the spread of the infection and human economic behaviour. They show that there is a negative relationship between the depth of the economic recession and the rate at which the epidemic spreads. They also reveal that the epidemic creates negative externalities implying that spontaneously limiting activities is an inadequate response. The economic consequences of the pandemic are modelled as a mixture of supply and demand shocks, it is not entirely clear which type of shock will dominate. While the negative supply shock came first, the demand shock may end up dominating because certain sectors are hit harder than others. The macroeconomic literature also points out that the pandemic affects different groups of people to different extents: for example, quarantine measures affect young people and people with lower incomes more than others. The epidemic thus has significant consequences for the redistribution of income and consumption. In brief: governments' primary task is to implement public health measures that can flatten the epidemic's curve sufficiently to ensure that the health crisis connected with the spread of the coronavirus does not exceed the capacity of the given country's health system. These measures will necessarily contribute to worsening the economic crisis. During this stage of the crisis, in which fiscal policy plays an essential role, it is necessary ‚to do whatever it takes' to maintain the majority of the economy in a viable state. Monetary policy will play only a secondary role during this phase. The longer and more serious the health crisis, the worse the economic crisis will be: it may also start to manifest itself in the form of a financial crisis, exchange rate crisis etc., which may then demand more drastic fiscal policy measures and greater coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. This pandemic and the economic crisis it has given rise to are global crises. They cannot therefore be overcome in isolation in one country or another, but demand coordinated efforts from the most developed countries and proper aid for the less developed countries, with the international and supranational institutions (IMF, WB, ECB, EU and others) playing a substantial role.\n
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Collecting personal data for smart COVID-19 tracing: how to motivate people and not scare them off
Jann, Ole
South Korea and Singapore, unlike many other countries, have recorded a slow increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 infection and a relatively low number of fatalities. Both these countries have not only carried out large numbers of tests, but have also used the information gained through them to trace the spread of the infection as quickly as possible, with the help of individual interviews, medical records, mobile phone data, credit card transaction data and CCTV recordings. Those who had come into contact with the chain of infection were then placed into strict quarantine. This substantially limited the spread of the infection and enabled softer restrictive measures to be taken across the remainder of the population, with a lesser impact on the economy. This strategy would now be possible in the Czech Republic, too. It would, however, require specific rules to be adopted, the principles of which are explained in this study. Each country only has one chance to implement them properly. Residents should be offered incentives to motivate them to cooperate by providing true and complete information, but these should not simultaneously provide undesirable motivations. Efforts to force people to provide detailed personalized data for the purpose of contact tracing and tracking the spread of the infection can, in fact, lead people to hide symptoms of illness or to hide the fact that they have recently been in contact with someone. It is thus necessary to find a compromise between the direct effectiveness of an imposed order and its negative side effects. Collecting data for the purposes of tracking the spread of an infection poses a greater problem in Europe than in East Asian countries, because in Europe there is less of a tradition of the local community enforcing the law for itself and there is greater mistrust of the state. Strong data protection is therefore crucial for the tracking strategy to succeed at all. Even a relatively low level of unwillingness among residents to cooperate in providing data, let alone a broader culture of non-cooperation and “cunning avoidance”, would mean the tracking system did not function sufficiently well. Data collected from residents for the purpose of tracking the spread of infection should be stored separate from other personal data in the state’s possession, beyond the reach of enforcement officials, tax investigators, the justice system or researchers, with the exception of those working directly on fighting the infection. The periods during which data are to be collected and retained should be clearly limited. Poorly established incentives for people to reveal personal information for the purposes of tracking the infection open the door to further contagion and result in huge economic damage, harm to people’s health and the loss of human lives.\n
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