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Forecasting electricity prices in the Czech spot market
Černý, Kryštof ; Lebovič, Michal (advisor) ; Rečka, Lukáš (referee)
This master thesis is focused on analysis and forecasting of hourly and daily electricity price on the deregulated Czech daily electricity market. The methods used for estimating and forecasting hourly and daily prices are picked from the ARIMA-GARCH family of models and Neural Networks. For daily price data, the Redundant Haar Wavelet Transform decomposition of the time series is used in combination with ARIMA and Neural Networks models for forecasting. For hourly data, ARIMA and Neural Network models are considered. The forecasting results of daily data indicate that simpler models such as seasonal ARIMA outperform all other methods. Also the wavelet decomposi- tion of the daily series didn't prove useful in enhancing the forecast precision. For hourly data, the Multilayer Perceptron architecture of the neural network outperformed the ARIMA forecast. JEL Classification C20, C22, C45, C53, C65 Keywords Forecasting, Time Series, ARIMA, GARCH, Neural Net- works, Wavelet Transform Author's e-mail krystof.cerny@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail lebovicm@gmail.com 1
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Evaluation of fulfilling the endogeneity hypothesis of the OCA criteria in some countries of the EMU
Černý, Kryštof ; Strecker, Ondřej (advisor) ; Báťa, Karel (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the Optimum Currency Areas theory (OCA) and applies its findings on evaluating the economic progress in chosen countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain in comparison with the "Core" of EMU. Consequently the thesis investigates the endogeneity hypothesis of the OCA criterion of structural similarity. The first section of the thesis contains an introduction to the OCA theory, the second section evaluates the progress of chosen macroeconomic and structural indices of the chosen countries, the third section investigates the endogeneity hypothesis with an empirical model and the last section contains final assessments, conclusions and remarks.
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Forecasting electricity prices in the Czech spot market
Černý, Kryštof ; Lebovič, Michal (advisor) ; Rečka, Lukáš (referee)
This master thesis is focused on analysis and forecasting of hourly and daily electricity price on the deregulated Czech daily electricity market. The methods used for estimating and forecasting hourly and daily prices are picked from the ARIMA-GARCH family of models and Neural Networks. For daily price data, the Redundant Haar Wavelet Transform decomposition of the time series is used in combination with ARIMA and Neural Networks models for forecasting. For hourly data, ARIMA and Neural Network models are considered. The forecasting results of daily data indicate that simpler models such as seasonal ARIMA outperform all other methods. Also the wavelet decomposi- tion of the daily series didn't prove useful in enhancing the forecast precision. For hourly data, the Multilayer Perceptron architecture of the neural network outperformed the ARIMA forecast. JEL Classification C20, C22, C45, C53, C65 Keywords Forecasting, Time Series, ARIMA, GARCH, Neural Net- works, Wavelet Transform Author's e-mail krystof.cerny@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail lebovicm@gmail.com 1
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Evaluation of fulfilling the endogeneity hypothesis of the OCA criteria in some countries of the EMU
Černý, Kryštof ; Strecker, Ondřej (advisor) ; Báťa, Karel (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the Optimum Currency Areas theory (OCA) and applies its findings on evaluating the economic progress in chosen countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain in comparison with the "Core" of EMU. Consequently the thesis investigates the endogeneity hypothesis of the OCA criterion of structural similarity. The first section of the thesis contains an introduction to the OCA theory, the second section evaluates the progress of chosen macroeconomic and structural indices of the chosen countries, the third section investigates the endogeneity hypothesis with an empirical model and the last section contains final assessments, conclusions and remarks.
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Political Philosophy of John Gray
Černý, Kryštof ; Znoj, Milan (advisor) ; Bíba, Jan (referee)
Precis The Political philosophy of John Gray touches a number of topics and also has gone thrue a couple of modifications. However this thesis aims to show that there can be found a consistent political doctrine of agonistic liberalism in Gray's thought that arises from his critigue of rationalistic theories of liberalism. Agonistic liberalism is based on the naturalistic ethical theory of value-pluralism which Gray adopted whit some modifications from Isaiah Berlin. On the ground of incommensurability and uncombinability of some values within individuel lives as well as within life forms Gray comes to conclusion that the conflict of values is ineradicable part of our lives. And that's the reason why any legel or political theory cannot set up a set of liberal principles that could claim universal validity. That is why Gray sets up the concept of modus vivendi, political ideal of coexistence of individuals, groups and societies based on mutual toleration. With regard to the rational indeterminacy of conflicts over values, according to agonistic liberalism these conflict has to by resolved by political means.
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