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An Analysis of Unemployment in Poland and the Czech Republic
Vavrečková, Klára ; Čabla, Adam (advisor) ; Malá, Ivana (referee)
The subject-matter of this bachelor thesis is an analysis of unemployment in the Czech Republic and Poland with a main focus on long-term unemployment which has a negative effect on an individual as well as on the state's economy. The major goal of this thesis is to compare the development and structure of unemployment in both countries from different perspectives by using appropriate statistical methods. The first part focuses on a clarification of terms such as unemployment. The second part of this paper compares the basic and common characteristics of the countries. The next part is devoted to the theory of the statistical methods which are use in the analytical part. Based on the data taken from Eurostat and the Czech Statistical Office in the year 1998--2013 is in the analytical part used the Analysis of Variance, analysis of trend and forecast of the long-term unemployment by using the exponential smoothing method. The bachelor thesis provides a compact insight into problems of unemployment in the Czech Republic and Poland.
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Modelling the trend of economic burden index for EU states
Kolman, Martin ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Helman, Karel (referee)
The purpose of this work is to analyze economic burden index in states of European Union. After describing the history of index for every state, the estimation of index evolution will be made. The analysis includes as well the graph for each state in which a history of index is clearly displayed from year 1992. There is a need to know the number of people in particular economic generation to calculate the value of index. There are information about the amount of people in five years age groups at website of Eurostat. We can get the number of people in preproductive, productive and postproductive generation after counting of suitable values. We will earn the value of economic burden index after putting the values into scheme. Exponential smoothing is used to model the trend. The evolution of index in next five years is estimated by the best type of this method.
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Model of the stock market and financial crisis
CHAJMOVÁ, Naděžda
The aim was to determine the behavior of time series of selected indices. On these indices, I sought structural changes and breakpoints. Then I found the breaking point by fixed periods of time series and regression using lieární estimate their parameters. By exponential smoothing, I identified the prediction index.
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Application of S-estimates in robust version of exponential smoothing of times series
Michálek, Jiří
Článek se zabývá využitím tzv. S-odhadů pro robustní vyrovnávání časových řad, které mohou být poškozeny "outliery". Technika S-odhadů je použita pro odhad lokálního koeficientu trendu a lokální úrovně variability. Je odvozena rekurentní formule pro výpočet těchto lokálních charakteristik popisujících chování sledované časové řady. Teoretické výsledky jsou završeny důkazem ekvivariantnosti vůči posunutí u odhadů lokálních parametrů regrese a invariantnosti odhadu úrovně disperze.
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