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Methods of prediction of currency courses
Pour, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with two methods of prediction of currency courses - the Power Price Parity theory and the Balance of Payments theory. At the begining there is a description of a currency course in general and basic methods of its prediction - fundamental and technical analysis. The main part of the thesis deals with the two methods of prediction mentioned above. Each theory is described, criticised and empirically compared with historical data from years 1999-2010 in separated chapters. The chapter about the balace of payments includes lots of charts illustrating the structures of balances of payments of the United States, the European Monetary Union and the Czech Republic.
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Crisis of international liquidity and disintegration of Bretton-Woods monetary system
Sekerešová, Zuzana ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
The thesis analyses the main reasons that caused disintegration of Bretton-Woods international monetary system. The United States played a significant role within this system whose long-range deficit of the balance of payments weakened the position of US dollar like major world currency and thereby the stability of entire system. By cancelling of the direct convertibility of the US dollar to gold in 1971 was broken one of the basic principles of Bretton-Woods system what meant its ultimate end. Another important factor participating in crash of that monetary system is crisis of international liquidity. The problem of insufficient international liquidity was developed by slow tempo of growth of foreign exchange reserves in relation to international trade. The shortage of foreign exchange reserves menaced continuity of international system of payments and thereby development of world trade. Despite the hastened solution of the problem of liquidity by emission of new reserve unit SDR it was impossible to avert the collapse of Bretton-Woods system.
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American dolar as a international reserve currency
Kozlerová, Pavlína ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
The work is dedicated to the development of the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency. In this context, the work also focuses further describe the evolution of U.S. balance of payments and other important macroeconomic factors like interest rates, which over the years had an impact on the dollar in international finance. The first part describes the development of the dollar's exchange rate and other factors in the period after the Second World War. In the second, then encounter has a more detailed analysis of the U.S. national currency and balance of payments between the years 1999 to 2009. Concluding part two periods are compared and concludes the current view on the U.S. dollar.
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Methods of prediction of the exchange rate and exchange rate analysis of selected countries
Shchehlyuk, Oleksandr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
In this thesis the author deals with the exchange rate prediction methods, namely the theory of purchasing power parity, interest parity theory and the theory of balance of payments. At the beginning of the work, all these methods briefly described in the next section are applied to the currency pair USD / JPY. The analysis was performed on 20 years period between 1990 and 2010. For the analysis of the theory of rates, purchasing power and interest were used monthly data for the analysis of balance of payments authors used annual data, given the length of the period under review more detailed breakdown would be unclear. At the end of the analysis, I analyzed the different factors and explanations that could affect the currency pair USD / JPY over the period. In this section I emphasized the official institutions intervention in the foreign exchange market. In conclusion, I summarize the identified knowledge and express their own opinions on the matter.
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The future of the Dollar as the global currency
Príkopa, Ivan ; Šaroch, Stanislav (advisor) ; Sudliankou, Aliaksandr (referee)
The main goal of my bachelor thesis is to consider past and present position of the U.S. Dollar in the world economy and possible development in the future. In the first chapter, I focus on the entry of the Dollar among the world currencies, mainly on the reasons for abandonment the British pound as a former global currency. In the next part, I consider usage and significance of the American currency in the world. The last chapter is aimed at possible future perspectives in the area of the global currencies. Part is mainly concerned on the alternatives of the Dollar in his position. Then I focus on opinions of the experts in this field. Each author shows different point of view on the problem and together, they give broad perspective about the future. Important was also concerning the attitude of China, as the main holder of Dollar reserves.
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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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The dollar's status in the global economy with emphasis on recent developments
Fikarová, Šárka ; Neumann, Pavel (advisor) ; Nováková, Jana (referee)
This thesis analyzes the current position of the U.S. dollar in the global economy. The first chapter focuses on the historical evolution of the position of the dollar against the background of the development of the whole international monetary system. The main part is focused on the current status of the dollar, which is examined on three fundamental functions of money - a store of value, unit of account and medium of exchange. The last chapter deals with possible scenario for the future status of the dollar.
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Postavení eura ve světové ekonomice
Mika, Jan ; Abrhám, Josef (advisor)
Práce hodnotí dosavadní úlohu eura ve světové ekonomice a přibližuje jeho možný budoucí vývoj v souvislosti s jeho postavením vůči americkému dolaru. Význam eura je v práci hodnocen nejprve v kontextu evropské měnové integrace a následně v kontextu globálním, s důrazem na otázku, zda se euro může stát hlavní měnou světové ekonomiky. Dále se práce zaobírá vyhodnocením významu eura pro Českou republiku v kontextu jejího budoucího začlenění do EMU.
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