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Macroeconomic consequences of Covid-19 and the role of stabilisation policies
Karhánek, Tomáš ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis applies panel data analyses supported by vast stream of empirical literature with aim to capture and quantify effects of the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on the macroeconomic indicators during COVID-19 pandemic, while also comparing effects of UMP and CMP monetary regimes. The results show that both the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies had positive and statistically significant impact on the real GDP growth. On the other hand, the effect of the stabilization policies did not have significant effect on the inflation during 2020-2021. The thesis also presents a small subsample of forecasting utilizing properties of VECM and comparing recovery paths of 3 European countries with different monetary regimes. We also conclude that there is no significant difference between monetary regimes utilizing UMP or CMP in terms of effectivity of the GDP growth stimulus and recovery paths of the macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, we have concluded that the GDP sectoral composition played an important role in the economic impact on the country as countries with larger share of services suffered larger decrease of the real GDP and countries with large industrial sector faced higher inflation due to supply chain disturbtion. JEL Classification E52, E31, E470, H51, H68, H61...
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The Use of Monetary Policy in the Simulator of Economic Instruments
PŘIBYL, Matěj
This thesis describes monetary policy and the use of its instruments in the modern economy. Monetary policy is a set of tools used by a nation's central bank to control the overall money supply and promote economic growth and employ strategies. The tools used and described in this thesis are for example, open market operations, discount rate and reserve requirements. These tools are used as a solution to random events that happen in a nation's economy. All these events are contained in a script which describes and suggests correct economic instruments to use. The main objective of this thesis is implementing the script into a diagram. The diagram also contains various choices and options to resolve events contained in this diagram. For example, rising inflation is dealt with by increasing interest rates. The output of the thesis will help banks to resolve various economic events and can also be used as a tool to educate students in economy oriented schools.
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Comparison of Monetary Policy in Case of FED and ECB
Ptáčník, Václav
The purpose of the thesis is to assess the impact of monetary policy upon economic performance in the euro area and The United States. The research focuses on differences in responsiveness of real output of economies on money supply and real interest Rate. The responsiveness is examined using Granger causality. The thesis proves whether money supply and real interest rate granger causes real output in the United States and euro area. Also monetary policy itself is described and compared using structural breaks in time series, Taylor rule, Galí rule and Mankiw rule. The empirical results are compared to each other and indicate that there has been differences in performing monetary policy in the United States and euro area; nevertheless responsiveness on monetary policy is in both economies very similar.
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The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability
Pokorný, Tomáš ; Kohajda, Michael (advisor) ; Sejkora, Tomáš (referee)
Title: The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability Author: Ing. Tomáš Pokorný Supervisor: doc. JUDr. Michael Kohajda Ph.D. When performing monetary policy, the central bank can follow inflation targeting or other monetary policy rules. Following a rule, the central bank can efficiently stabilize economic development in the long run, because the changes in the mon- etary policy given by the policy rule are included in the rational expectations of agents. It might seem that the consistency of monetary policy is secured by following the policy rule only. The potential discretion, however, remains in the different preferences of the bank board members, which may completely change monetary policy decisions within the given monetary policy rule. Current leg- islation does not prevent this discretion by any means as the decision of bank board members' appointment is awarded to the Czech president exclusively, who can completely disrupt the monetary policy consistency with the previous bank board. The changes in the bank board preferences are analyzed using the GMM method on two subsamples in the period of 1996 Q3 - 2021 Q2. The empirical analysis shows that the Czech National Bank followed its constitutional duty and reacted with its policy rates to the...
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Does monetary policy reinforce the effects of macroprudential policy?
Livorová, Barbara ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Ehrenbergerová, Dominika (referee)
This thesis examines whether the efects of macroprudential policy on credit and house price growth difer across diverse phases of the monetary policy cycle. The dataset covers 33 advanced and 39 emerging market countries in the period 1990-2019. Using the GMM estimation method, the results for individual types of macroprudential policy instruments and their cumula- tive efect represented by macroprudential policy index show that tightening of monetary policy does on average reinforce the efects of macropruden- tial policy on credit and house price growth. Furthermore, the efects of various types of macroprudential policies on credit and house price growth difer depending on the monetary policy cycle phase. The results suggest that macroprudential policies are efective in curbing house price growth in advanced countries but less so in emerging markets. The efects of macropru- dential policy tools on credit growth are somewhat larger in emerging market economies than in advanced economies. The thesis contributes to the growing literature on the efectiveness of macroprudential policy on credit and housing markets and on the interaction between macroprudential and monetary poli- cies. JEL Classifcation E52, E58, G21, G28, E32 Keywords Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, Credit Growth,...
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European Central Bank Digital Currencies: Lessons from Central Bank Experiments and Scenario Analysis
Pramod Kumar, Kumar Chandrakamal ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee) ; Ramesh, Sangaralingam (referee)
The dramatic increase in popularity of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has motivated central banks to research central bank digital currencies (CBDC). The key central bank R-CBDC experiments are reviewed. It is found that central banks of advanced economies like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are relatively less motivated to issue R-CBDC. This is because current retail payment systems and settlements are already fast and efficient and the advantages of R-CBDC may not be as large as initially expected. Financial inclusion and need for traceable payment systems is less attractive in advanced economies and central banks would lose credibility if CBDC were implemented unsuccessfully. A scenario analysis is used to explore the implications of R-CBDC on financial stability and monetary policy. The results show that CBDC implementation in all scenarios is expected to positively impact financial stability and monetary policy. Results from the scenario analysis are more optimistic than the literature and urges central banks to continue their research. Finally, it is found that ECB's ability to issue CBDC is uncertain. The risks to traditional monetary policy tools and banking system should encourage both to become more efficient and focus on the needs of users.
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How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Ukraine Originates From External Shocks?
Fedorova, Alona ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
iv Abstract In this thesis, we investigate the relative importance of foreign shocks in the Ukrainian economy by estimating a small-scale SVAR model with block exogeneity restriction over the period 2003:2 - 2016:12. We find that external shocks from the EU and Russia account for a significant share of the macroeconomic variation in Ukraine. In particular, external shocks account for up to 97 % of variance in Ukraine's output and 85 % in inflation. Remarkably, foreign monetary policy shocks (both from the EU and Russia) account only for a tiny share of variance in all Ukrainian macro variables. Finally, we show that the inclusion of Russia in the 'foreign' block is important to achieve correct model specification. Without accounting for the effects of the Russian economy, Ukrainian variables over-react to shocks originating from the EU. We conclude that the National Bank of Ukraine should closely track external developments to achieve inflation targets. JEL Classification E52, F41, F42 Keywords vector autoregression, foreign shocks, monetary policy, Ukraine Author's e-mail alonafedorova0@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz
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SME Access to Finance and Monetary Policy of the ECB
Brázdová, Martina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to provide new insights into determinants of firm access to finance, and the role of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy. Not only do we describe and analyze the determinants of access to finance, but we focus on the theory of financial intermediation, as well. The key part analyses European Commission (EC)/ECB survey data for 16 euro area economies from 11 survey waves in the period from 2009 to 2014. We build our model using traditional firm-level variables such as firm size and age as well as a novel measure of the ECB's monetary policy stance - the shadow rate. We hypothesize that smaller and younger firms with decreased profitability over the past 6 months and increased leverage over the same period are more likely to report problems with access to finance. Our results are intuitively consistent with theoretical expectations and also show that the looser the monetary policy of the ECB is, the lower the composite financing gap indicator. Interestingly, we do not confirm the existence of risk taking channel of the monetary policy. Overall, we make use of the most recent survey data, extend the dataset, and use modified methodology for our estimation.
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The Central Bank, its position and activities
Veselý, Jan ; Kotáb, Petr (advisor) ; Kohajda, Michael (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to describe the functioning of the central bank, the historical development of the Czech National Bank, its organizational structure and internal decision-making mechanisms, activities carried out, its purpose, function and objectives and to incorporate it in the legal system of the Czech Republic. This thesis addresses the involvement of the Czech National Bank for the European System of Central Banks, the functioning of the European Central Bank and the aforementioned European System of Central Banks. Part of the work is devoted to the process of adopting the euro and the relation between Czech Republic this currency. The thesis gives a comprehensive view of the functioning of the Czech National Bank. Thesis is divided into several chapters, and each chapter neatly summarized some part of the whole and to ensure easy orientation at work. The work is drawn from literature, case law and legislation. The work includes the connection of the scientific literature and the author's views. There is a widely used quotes personalities and capabilities in their field and provisions of the legislation, so that the work was valuable informative.
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