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The effect of climate change on the effect of state security: An analysis of Burkina Faso and Djibouti
Alexandru, Luca ; Riegl, Martin (vedoucí práce) ; Doboš, Bohumil (oponent)
This thesis examines the extent to which climate change is able to affect the security of states, with Burkina Faso and the Republic of Djibouti chosen as the case studies for this investigation. While the general effects of climate change on security are understood, the academic community appears to disagree on the subject of conflict-generation via climactic pressures. Consequently, the analysis is divided into two sections: The first part utilizes over 2,000 individual events collected by the Armed Conflict and Event Data program and examines the relationship between climate change and their occurrence. This is done firstly through a preliminary keyword analysis, then through a multivariate regression analysis of the relevant climate change factors. The second part takes a pseudo-qualitative approach by merging the Fragile State Index methodology and a weighted systems model in order to calculate values for each relevant state dimension that has been affected, thereby numerically quantifying the effect. The results indicate that currently, weak to moderate negative effects may be observed on the two states, depending on the security dimension examined. The economic and sociodemographic aspects appear to be most susceptible to environmental pressures.
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