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Analysis of selected demographic time series
Strada, Ondřej ; Helman, Karel (advisor) ; Bašta, Milan (referee)
The aim of this finish work is an analysis of selected demographic time series and calculation of their predictions. Concretely, it deals with time series of annual crude birth rate, crude death rate, and the average age of mothers at first birth, all for the time period of 1960-2013. First, demographic terms used further in the work are defined. There is also a theoretical part describing the statistical methods used, specifically the methodology of time series from authors Box-Jenkins. Developement of each time serie is evaluated socio-demographically and the procedure of selecting the most appropriate interpolation model and calculation of predictions derived from it are described. There is also description of a process of selecting a suitable model based on the extrapolation method of predictions with Rolling Origin, construction of predictions derived from it and their comparison with the most suitable interpolation model. At the end there is a comparison of the time series of crude birth rate between the Czech Republic and selected developed country (Sweden), which brings interesting results.
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