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Revenue forecast of municipal budgets
 Radilová, Marcela ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Bayer, Ondřej (referee)
The subject of my thesis is to analyze the predictions of tax revenues in ten municipalities of comparable size. The main aim of my thesis is to evaluate the accuracy of predictions for selected municipal tax revenues and see if you can not refine their expert estimation using appropriate statistical methods. A sub-goal is to characterize in detail the various components of the budget revenues, and analyze their size and structure in selected municipalities. Another important sub-goal is to compare the communities to highlight their differences and common elements of municipal budget process. These information are based on interviews at municipalities. The result of the analysis is that the optimal use of prediction methods differ not only income from income, but from city to city. For income tax paid by employees appeared in some cases, reliable prediction of the city, in other cities it was exponential smoothing. For the tax on personal income from independent activities is clearly the most accurate regression analysis, which refines the prognosis of this tax by up to several tens of percent. Although the error of prediction of the city in property taxes was none too small, this approach has remained the most accurate. Only three cities have been more accurate by using exponential smoothing.
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The prediction of revenues of municipal budgets
 Radilová, Marcela ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (referee)
The core theme of this bachelor thesis is the prediction of revenues of municipal budgets. For this work I have chosen budgets from the town Humpolec. The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to describe how Humpolec prepares the revenue side of the budget and evaluate which one of the methods of prediction is suitable. These methods of prediction are: simple moving average, exponential smoothing, transformation moving average, regression against time and expert's assessment of the town Humpolec. During the calculation of prediction I determined that the expert's assessment is not the most ideal prediction method for all tax revenues. The expert's assessment is the right prediction method for all types of the individual income tax and for the corporation income tax paid by municipalities. For the value added tax and corporation income tax it would be more suitable use the regression against time method. Transformation moving average is the best for prediction of fees. It is more complicated with real estate tax, because no method of prediction emerged as a definitive "winner". For this kind of tax revenue I would choose either the expert's assessment or the regression against time method. Through my research I have demonstrated that it is not recommended to use one method of prediction for all revenues; rather, it is better to assess each section and choose the method of prediction best suited to the specific revenue type.
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2 Radilová, Michaela
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