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Subjective character of experience: What is it like to be a conscious agent?
Kožíšek, Jakub ; Hill, James (advisor) ; Palkoska, Jan (referee)
In his article What is it like to be a bat? Thomas Nagel defines consciousness by subjective character of experience. An organism is conscious if there is something that it is like to be that organism. Science describes the world objectively, from the third person perspective. That is the reason why it fails to cope with consciousness - it misses the subjective character of experience. In spite of that, Nagel proposes a new method for studying subjectivity of consciousness, which he calls "objective phenomenology". In my thesis, I want to find out if Daniel Dennett's heterophenomenology is or could be that method. Key words: Nagel, Dennett, consciousness, subjective character of experience, heterophenomenology.
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Forecasting Term Structure of Government Bonds Using High Frequency Data
Kožíšek, Jakub ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This thesis investigates the use of realized volatility features from high frequency data in com- bination with neural networks to improve forecasts of the yield curve of government bonds. I use high frequency data on futures of four U.S. Treasury securities to estimate the Nelson-Siegel yield curve and realized variance of its parameters over the period of 25 years. The estimated parameters are used in prediction of the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve using an LSTM neural network and compared to the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Results show that the use of realized variance and neural network outperforms autoregressive methods in prediction of the level and curvature in daily and monthly forecasts. The yield curve of government bonds itself has a predictive power on multiple macroeconomic variables, therefore improvements in its forecastability may have broader implications on forecasting the overall state of the economy.
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Bidding patterns in public procurement auctions
Kožíšek, Jakub ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (advisor) ; Soudek, Jan (referee)
Public procurement market and auctions by which contractors are selected is difficult to analyze using standard econometric models, for their heterogeneity and the lack of complete data. This thesis expands on econometric models, using simulation of real life events in an experimental environment - an agent based model. The chosen ground-up approach allows for better understanding of market behaviors and patterns and to predict these behaviors, depending on the given conditions. With the analysis of how particular agents react to their changes, this represents a tool for evaluating different legislative proposals with respect to market efficiency. As the main objective of the thesis, factors affecting bidding patterns and therefore auction outcomes are studied using real data from the Czech Republic in an econometric model and then four possible legislative changes are tested using a custom made simulation model. Out of four proposals, the minimal requirement on the number of auction participants is considered a viable option in reducing procurement cost and is recommended for further evaluation. The complex model itself is released under permissive license to encourage broader analyses of the public procurement market. 1
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Material world in the system of pre-established harmony
Kožíšek, Jakub ; Palkoska, Jan (advisor) ; Hill, James (referee)
In my thesis I will be engaged in Leibniz's conception of material world in the system of pre-established harmony. In Leibniz's philosophy bodies exist at least on two different levels of reality. We can think of them as aggregates of simple, not extended substances - monads, or on phenomenal level, as well founded phenomena, which are only representations of monads. My primary aim is to examine, how these two conceptions of material world connected are.
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