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ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on fuel and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.
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A Panel Data Investigation of the Military Spending - Economic Growth Nexus in the EU
Uchman, Krzysztof Jerzy ; Aliyev, Shahriyar (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
The thesis examines the relationship between economic growth, investment, and military expenditure, utilizing a balanced data panel for 14 European countries over three periods: 1970 - 1991, 1992 - 2020, and 1970 - 2020. A vector autoregression model was applied to estimate the relationship for the European population. Regression of the 14 European countries over the entire period of 1970 - 2020 has yielded neither statistically significant autocorrelation nor cross-correlation between the studied variables. The same is true when regressing the 14 countries in the period 1992 - 2020. For the same group of European countries in the period 1970 - 1991 some statistical significance has been found in the autocorrelation between investment as a share of GDP and its lags. It appears that the introduction of a time break between year 1991 and 1992 (the fall of the Iron Curtain) has no impact on the studied relationship for the selected group of countries and the time period. The results of the thesis suggest no identifiable relationship between the variables for the chosen European sample of 14 countries.
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ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We analyze the impact of the ECB monetary policies on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices using monthly data from January 2001 till August 2019. We employ a SVAR model and assess separately period of conventional monetary policy before global financial crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy during post-crisis period. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on the aggregate and sectoral commodity prices during both conventional and unconvetional monetary policy periods. The effect is statistically significant for aggregate commodity prices during post-crisis period. In terms of sectoral impact, the effect is statistically significant for food prices in both periods and for fuel prices during post-crisis period; other commodities display positive but statistically insignificant responses. Further, we demonstrate that the impact of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices increased remarkably after the GFC. Our results also suggest that the effect of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices does not transmit directly through market demand and supply expectations channel, but rather through the exchange rate channel that influences the European market demand directly.
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Analysis of Health Quality Indicators in the Framework of Sustainable Development Goals
Šanderová, Lucie ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Aliyev, Shahriyar (referee)
This thesis studies two indicators of good health and well-being embedded in the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; suicide mortality rate and harmful use of alcohol. Firstly, socio-economic determinants of suicide mortality rate and alcohol per capita consumption in countries of the European Union are analysed. As an econometric approach, panel data methods are utilized. Among selected economic and socio-demographic variables, suicide mortality rate is found sensitive to unemployment rate, whilst economic growth, fertility rate and female labour participation rate are concluded not have a significant impact. Model of alcohol consumption confirms relatively higher sensitivity to changing income than to alcohol price level. First differencing estimation produces income and price elasticity within range of prior estimates. Secondly, an ARIMA forecast is performed for the EU and its member states to assess current prospects of attaining targets corresponding to the two health quality indicators in question by year 2030. For the EU collectively, forecasts suggest rather favourable development, although considerable disparities are present among individual member states.
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