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Forecast of revenue for municipal budget
Špelda, Miroslav ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Hovorka, Petr (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the quality of forecasts of tax revenues. Detail focuses on the town of Nachod, wherein by means of selected quantitative Methods I am trying to suggest potential estimate for tax revenues. Furthermore, based on publicly available data, analyze ten other similarly sized towns. Comparing prediction cities with the estimate of the Ministry of Finance and the reality. Based on these data, I am trying to prove or disprove the hypothesis that the city predicted earnings consistently underestimate, while the Ministry of Finance is overestimates. The results of the analysis of Nachod based on the possibility of more accurate predictions for income taxes using the method of exponential smoothing. For value added tax and land value tax, then using the method of average growth. The hypothesis can be confirmed only partially. Municipalities actually understate their income often. The Finance Ministry, however, in its prediction does not commit more frequent overstatement.
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