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Methods of prediction of currency courses
Pour, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with two methods of prediction of currency courses - the Power Price Parity theory and the Balance of Payments theory. At the begining there is a description of a currency course in general and basic methods of its prediction - fundamental and technical analysis. The main part of the thesis deals with the two methods of prediction mentioned above. Each theory is described, criticised and empirically compared with historical data from years 1999-2010 in separated chapters. The chapter about the balace of payments includes lots of charts illustrating the structures of balances of payments of the United States, the European Monetary Union and the Czech Republic.
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Development of foreign exchange market
Hakobyan, Ani ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This thesis describes the instruments of the foreign exchange market and analyses the trend of its single elements over the past 15 years. The work is divided into two parts. The first part includes the description of the global foreign exchange market,its history, geografical concentration, participants and financial instruments. The second part analyses the foreign exchange market in the Czech Republic and its comparison with transition economies such as Poland, Hungary and The Slovak Republic.
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Analysis of the U.S. external economic balance and exchange rate of USD by the end of World War II. to the present
Šmíd, Lukáš ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Ondřich, Libor (referee)
The theme of this thesis is an analysis of the U.S. external economic balance. The first part of the work deals with the parameter of the external economic balance and definition of the balance of payments. Furthermore, the first part describes the individual parts of the balance of payments. Finally, there are the foreign investment position of the country and external debt indicators. In the second part of the work we can find an analysis of the U.S. balance of payments. There are values of the current account, the capital account, the financial account and the statistical discrepancy of the United States of America. Finally, the work deals with the foreign investment position and the external debt of the United States of America.
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Possibilities and methods of currency risk management
Zulák, Vilém ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Petrušová, Martina (referee)
The topic of this bachelor thesis is methods of currency risk management. In the globalised world most of the companies that take part in foreign trade are exposed to such risk. Therefore it is important to understand how this risk originates and how it can be managed. Because the main world trade currencies, including the US dolar, are unstable, ingnoring this problem can cause companies significant losses. In the main part of this bachelor thesis the author deals in detail with internal and external methods of currency risk management. This theoretical knowledge is then used in the analytical part to analyze and hedge the foreign currency exposure of Škoda Auto a.s. during 2010 and evaluate the outcomes of the analysis.
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Using financial derivatives in government debt risk management
Kučera, Lukáš ; Blahová, Naděžda (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with possible usage of financial derivatives in context of government debt risk management, mainly in the Czech Republic. After the opening analysis of government debt development, the thesis describes risks, which are involved in government debt management. After that it handles with quantification of those risks and of their possible securing, especially with respect to financial derivatives usage. This thesis tries to answer the question, whether using financial derivatives in government debt management is reasonable. To solve this I used an analysis of 2010 data, in which I compare profitability of emission of classical bonds compared to emission of so called structured instruments, i.e. joint of classical bond and financial derivative. In conclusion of thesis there is usage of financial derivatives confronted with their negative characteristics as well as with cases of their abuse.
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Evaluation of the previous policy of the ECB in terms of its impact on national economies of the eurozone
Kleštinec, Ivan ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The ECB was established during the third phase of the economic and monetary union and its activities launched on 1. 7. 1998. It has become a new independent institution whose primary task became the conduct of monetary policy for countries that have accepted the euro currency. This bachelor thesis examines the impact of monetary policy in selected countries of the euro area. ECB affects individual national economies using its strategies and instruments, such as interest rates, minimum reserve requirements or change over the amount of money in circulation, whether through expansive or restrictive policy. It tries to act counter-cyclically to stabilize the price level and economic growth or to promote it. Monetary policy is the same for all countries, although the results are different because every country in the euro zone determines its own fiscal policy.
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Internal exchange rate risk management techniques with application to import-oriented company
Malý, Jan ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
The work is focused on exchange rate risk, its description and typical situations in which firms have to face to the uncertainty caused by variability of exchange rates. It specifies selected internal (operational) techniques which are used to manage exchange rate risk as well. These methods are connected with financial management of companies and it is possible to apply these techniques to every size of company. The principle and the implementation of internal methods might be tighter to smaller companies. These companies do not know a lot about a wide scale of instruments of financial market, so hedging through external methods may not be suitable. Internal methods contrary to external are also suitable for hedging economic exposure (substantial part of the work is focused on economic exposure). In response to current events, exchange rate risk is also discussed in connection with continuing economic depression and pending fiscal situation of the countries which are part of euro area. In analytic part the work is focused on a Czech import-oriented firm which purchases machines from Taiwanese suppliers for euro and dollars and consequently sells these goods in the Czech market mostly in Czech koruna. In some cases the firm negotiates invoicing in euro. Currency mismatch of receipts and payments gives rise to exchange rate risk. In addition, firm's business contracts are specific to high nominal value and longer maturity. With the growth of these two parameters increases exchange rate risk.
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Czech koruna spot rate prediction based on the forward rate analysis
Karch, Jozef ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the possibility of forecasting the future spot rate with forward rate. Based on theoretical assumptions, the theory of rational expectations and the efficient markets hypothesis, we will develop econometric models to test accuracy of such prediction based on a set of historical data of spot and forward rates. The analysis shows that the forward rate is not a satisfactory predictor of future spot rate.
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Comparison of Currency Board and Crawling Peg exchange rate arrangements in transition economies
Štolc, Michal ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis discusses the issue of adopting appropriate exchange rate arrangement in transition economies of Eastern Europe during the 90's of 20th century. It more closely focuses on two of those arrangements, Currency Board and Crawling Peg. In the theoretical part, it describes the division of exchange rate regimes, problems of transition economies and specific features of Currency Board and Crawling Peg regimes. In the following analytical part, it compares the effects of adoption of one of these exchange rate regimes in Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary.
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Methods of prediction of the exchange rate and exchange rate analysis of selected countries
Shchehlyuk, Oleksandr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
In this thesis the author deals with the exchange rate prediction methods, namely the theory of purchasing power parity, interest parity theory and the theory of balance of payments. At the beginning of the work, all these methods briefly described in the next section are applied to the currency pair USD / JPY. The analysis was performed on 20 years period between 1990 and 2010. For the analysis of the theory of rates, purchasing power and interest were used monthly data for the analysis of balance of payments authors used annual data, given the length of the period under review more detailed breakdown would be unclear. At the end of the analysis, I analyzed the different factors and explanations that could affect the currency pair USD / JPY over the period. In this section I emphasized the official institutions intervention in the foreign exchange market. In conclusion, I summarize the identified knowledge and express their own opinions on the matter.
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