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Evaluation of stock market efficiency and selection of appropriate investment strategy
JAKLOVÁ, Kamila
The main assumption of market efficiency theory is that stock price developments are random. The first mention of this theory comes from the 1950s. The aim of this diploma thesis is to determine the degree of market efficiency based on market efficiency testing. The market can achieve weak forms of efficiency, medium forms of market efficiency and strong forms of efficiency, depending on how quickly stock responds to all information in the market. Market efficiency is tested based on Correlation Test and Runs Test. These are tests focused on the independence of changes in stock prices. The aim of these tests is to describe the relationship between stock prices at time t and t-1. The tests are performed on daily returns of 60 stocks from the five most important areas of the US stock market in the period 1/2015 to 12/2016. These are the areas of Information Technology, the Financial industry, the Pharmaceutical industry, the Food industry, and the Automotive industry. Furthermore, the presence of market anomalies is tested. If these special effects are confirmed, the presence of an efficient market can be refuted. These are the Monday and January effects. Based on the determined market efficiency, investment strategies are assigned to selected areas of the US market. Investment strategies can be divided into two groups of active strategy and passive strategy. The passive strategy assumes of long-term shareholding. An active strategy responds to market signals based on which the investor decides to buy or sell a stock in order to achieve above-average profits. Market buy / sell signals are calculated based on exponential moving averages. These are short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages applied to 60 selected stocks.
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Relation between Economic Situation and Political Stability
JAKLOVÁ, Kamila
The political parties use the economic situation of the state as one of their arguments in their electoral strategy. The aim of the thesis is to depict the impact of the economic situation in selected European countries on voters' decision making. Selected economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation, tax on personal income, balance of trade and debt are compared with the impact on voters' decision making in these countries with the application of Logistic Regression. This method determines the degree of impact of individual economic indicators on the political stability of selected countries. The data used in this work are based on the publicly available database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in years 2007-2017. The result of the analysis determines appropriate economic indicators for political election strategies.
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