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Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic
Musilová, Simona ; Půža, Bedřich (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
The bachelor’s thesis is focused on the Phillips curve in conditions of the Czech economics. Validity of the substitution relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate is testing by regression analysis on real data of the Czech Republic during years 1996–2016. In order to better explain variability of the dependent variable, the model is expanded by inflation expectations, which corresponds to the development of the economic theory of the Phillips curve. After that the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic is constructed in Maple using the systems of differential equations.
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Komunikace jako nástroj monetární politiky ČNB
Avramov, Dominik
Avramov, D. Communication as a tool for monetary policy of ČNB. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2023. Central bank communication is a hot topic because, in a world where in-formation travels at the speed of light, it is in the interest of central banks that their monetary policy is properly understood and does not spread uncertainty. The thesis will focus on the period 2016-2020, during which the Fed, BoE and ČNB changed their key rates in an attempt to tighten monetary policy. The text summarises the current understanding of central bank communication and then analyses three central banks to use the comparison to improve the ČNB's current communication strategy.
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Presnosť predikcií inflácie európskych centrálnych bánk
Frantová, Martina
Frantová M., The accuracy of European central banks inflation forecasts. Bachelor thesis. Mendel University Brno, 2019. The Bachelor thesis focuses on accuracy of inflation forecasting, created by central banks in European Union during the period of 2004 ‒ 2018. The theoretical part consists of literature review that describes related terms in relationship with forecasting. This part consists of European central banks models literature review as well. The practical part detects differences and deviations of forecast by evaluating methods. Analysis is divided into two parts, the first one as overall measuring forecasting accuracy, created by both graphical display and evaluating methods, and continues with analysis of horizons. The aim of this thesis is to identify accuracy errors of inflation predictions created by national banks in European Union. Via Mean Absolute Percent Error, Mean Absolute Deviation and Standard Deviation it has been found, that there are significant differences in inflation forecasts and accuracy is worsening with increasing horizon.
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Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic
Musilová, Simona ; Půža, Bedřich (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
The bachelor’s thesis is focused on the Phillips curve in conditions of the Czech economics. Validity of the substitution relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate is testing by regression analysis on real data of the Czech Republic during years 1996–2016. In order to better explain variability of the dependent variable, the model is expanded by inflation expectations, which corresponds to the development of the economic theory of the Phillips curve. After that the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic is constructed in Maple using the systems of differential equations.
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Dynamika inflace v Česká republice: Odkad novokeynesiánské Phillipsove křivky
Milučká, Daniela ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Recent breakthrough studies by Gali and Gertler (1999), Sbordone (2002) and Roberts (2001) argue that the New Keynesian Phillips curve (based on Calvo pricing model) is empirically valid concept and they conclude that the real marginal costs are preferred driving force to output gap in inflation dynamics for open economies. Neiss and Nelson (2002) and Gali, Gertler and Salido (2001), in turn, contradict that to date, there has been only little empirical evidence to support this statement. Neiss and Nelson (2002) add that "once output gap is defined consistently with economic theory, the gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve has a fit with data which is at least as good as the real marginal costs-based one". For this purpose, my study investigates relationship between output gap and inflation described in the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. Study estimates key coefficients of the hybrid gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve, with both forward- and backward-looking inflation components, in the Czech Republic for periods 2000Q1 - 2012Q4 using Kalman filtration. My findings suggest that (i) output gap has a significant impact on Czech inflation dynamics (ii) share of forward-looking agents predominates to backward-looking agents in the Czech Republic and (iii) Czech inflation seems to be significantly driven by change in import prices.
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Pojetí peněžních iluzí a jeho vývoj v ekonomii
Košková, Dominika ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This thesis maps development of money illusion through the history of economic thought and analyzes relevance of the concept in these days. The story begins in 1928 with Irving Fisher, who saw money illusion as a failure to perceive changes in purchasing power of money. Different notion was developed by John Maynard Keynes when he proposed a non-homogeneous labor supply. In the 1970s, the success of rational expectations theory led to a dismissal of the original theories of money illusion and Tobin's critique revealed also an inconsistency of the Keynesian notion. Since then, money illusion lost its position in the mainstream economic science. The modern theories were, however, able to align money illusion with rational expectations and provided the phenomenon with a psychological framework. Money illusion became described as a tendency to think in nominal rather than real terms. While the concept was revived as a part of behavioral and New Keynesian economics, the question of its aggregate effects remains as the Keynes' inconsistency have not been resolved until these days.
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Theoretical basis of inflation targeting and experiences with its practical use in the Czech Republic
Plachý, Matěj ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Štork, Zbyněk (referee)
This thesis focuses on the monetary policy regime known as inflation targeting. The first part mentions theoretical basis which are ground for this transmission mechanism. New Keynesian model, endogenous money theory and output gap as a conception of inflation are crucial for this theoretical concept. The next part focuses on history of inflation targeting, especially on the situation in the Czech Republic but there are also mentioned other economics, such as Poland, Hungary and Sweden. Analytical part shows some weak parts of inflation targeting which could be connected with its application. Some of them are analyzed on data from the Czech Republic.
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Analysis of problems of South wing countries of EMU and Ireland from the optimum currency area point of view and application on Czech Republic
Michailidis, Dimitrios ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Dudáková, Tereza (referee)
This thesis focuses on analysis of current problems of so called "South wing countries" of EMU and Ireland (countries which are being called "PIIGS") from the theory of optimum currency area point of view. It uses the static and dynamic version of the theory as a framework for analyzing the problems of internal and external imbalance within those countries and mainly the connection between current accounts deficits, high level of private and public debts, loss of competitiveness in international trade and high percent of unemployment. The thesis comes with a conclusion that the main factors behind the crisis were inflation and inflation expectations which then through different inflation differentials created asymmetric shocks in monetary policy. This inflation differential phenomenon is described in Walters critique and with other theories creates the basis of analytical part. In the appendix it assesses the readiness of Czech Republic for accepting the euro, based on the analysis made in this thesis.
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and selected countries
Tůma, Petr ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Ryvolová, Ivana (referee)
The Czech National Bank adopted an inflation targeting approach after the change rate turmoil in 1997. It went about a new strategy that was known only in a few developed countries. Monetary policy is being realized by directly targeting on its final object (price stability). I analyze the developments of consumer price index, inflation expectations, prognosis of inflation and other economic values, because I determine, if the inflation targeting is a correct alternative for monetary policy in case of Czech Republic, Slovakia and United Kingdom. I can tell that changeover on inflation targeting has being guaranteed a stable economic setting with a low measure of inflation, but results confirm that. This is important for our entrance into monetary union.
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