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Economic research bulletin (2005, No.1)
Česká národní banka
The efficiency of macroeconomic policies depends on adequate business cycle approximation. The CNB’s approach is aimed at estimating the deviation of real GDP from its “inflation-non-accelerating” level. Such deviation – the output gap – reflects demanddriven inflationary pressures, where the Phillips curve is of primary importance. By contrast, the production function method reflects the supply-side or “capacity” view of the economy’s potential. The two approaches are subject to methodological disputes and deliver different quantitative results, thus leaving decision makers still with a considerable degree of uncertainty. That is why alternative approaches are being developed. The following articles illustrate this problem in more detail.
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Economic research bulletin (2004, No.1)
Česká národní banka
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin begins with an outline of the forecasting model currently used by the CNB, including efforts aimed at its extension (Jaromír Beneš, Tibor Hlédik and David Vávra). Kateřina Šmídková goes on to present various methods of dealing with forecast uncertainty. Michal Skořepa then discusses the ways central banks’ future interest rates can be incorporated in their projections of future economic developments. And finally, Viktor Kotlán evaluates the relevance of using simple indicators, such as the yield curve, in the process of inflation targeting.
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic compared with the Visegrad countries
Gergelyová, Jana ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Zbyněk, Štork (referee)
This thesis is an analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic and the success of the Czech monetary policy compared with inflation targeting in the Visegrad countries. In the first part, I focused on the development of central banking and the role of central banks, the main actors of monetary policy, in relation to inflation. A common feature of the Visegrad Four is a monetary policy based on inflation targeting. The prediction of inflation compared with its actual development in a period of ten years is subject to the practical part, which is supple-mented by a wide range of graphs and tables that I have mainly compiled from data available on the websites of central banks of individual countries and Eurostat, the European Union statistical office.
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