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The Evaluation of the Heavy Convective Precipitation Forecast
 Zacharov, Petr ; Řezáčová, Daniela (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee) ; Pešice, Petr (referee)
The thesis deal with the evaluation of the quantitative convective precipitation forecast and its uncertainty. Five convective events that produced heavy local rainfall in the Czech Republic were studied. The nonhydrostatic local model LM COSMO was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and an ensemble of 13 forecasts was created by modifying the initial and boundary conditions. Forecasts were verified by gauge-adjusted radar-based rainfalls. Ensemble skill and ensemble spread were determined using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS). The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, while the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfalls. The numerical experiments used the FSS-skill and spread values related to four events to estimate the skill-spread relationship. The relationship was applied to a fifth event to estimate the QPF ensemble skill given the ensemble FSS-spread. A couple of test of FSS computing were performed. The analysis of these events proved, that the application of the new fuzzy verification scores in high resolution QPF is highly advisable. The new scores are more suitable then the traditional verification scores based on the contingency table. In order to asses the...
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