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Models of Analysis and Forecasting of the insolvency of Czech companies
Kuchina, Elena ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Řičař, Michal (referee)
Different scenarios of the financial situation can take place before the company's bankruptcy. There may be long-term trends in the deteriorating financial situation that indicate the impending corporate bankruptcy, or the bankruptcy may occur unexpectedly, even though the company was ranked among prosperous business units. If the economic situation of the company followed the second scenario, when insolvency was quite predictable, static model, i.e. the model which does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the financial indicators, is a good option to capture the probability of bankruptcy. However, the situation becomes different when the financial indicators fail to show a positive trend throughout some years before the insolvency. In this case, the predictive accuracy of the static model could be increased by a dynamic model by taking into account the fact that the development of the financial indicators in the past periods may affect the company's financial health for the period under consideration.
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