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What determinates electricity price on day-ahead spot market in Czech Republic?
Černotová, Michaela ; Lahvička, Jiří (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines determinants affecting the marginal price of electricity on day ahead spot market in Czech Republic based on hourly data from January 1st 2010 to December 31st 2011. The influence of every explanatory variable used in the model was proven. Majority of the significant fluctuations is caused by the time factor (specific hour, day of the week). The price during the weekdays is on the average higher by 41% than during Sunday, 22% higher in Saturday. In accordance with former assumptions increase of the long-term price/the settlement price of system imbalance (by 1 EUR) causes increase of the marginal price (by 0.03/1%). The same effect can be recognized in case of higher volume of planned outages (increase by 100 MWh causes increase of marginal price by 0.3%). While we consider the influence of temperatures, the lowest price is at 14.2 °C; when the temperature falls to -5 °C the price is about 13.7% higher; when the temperature rises to 23.9 °C it is about 6% higher. An interesting conclusion is negligible improvement of forecasting capability of the model if we take into consideration the production from renewable energy sources (specifically fotovoltaic power plants).

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