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Air temperature and its forecasting
Švábik, Filip ; Huszár, Peter (advisor) ; Belda, Michal (referee)
Weather forecasting, especially air temperature prediction, is important in many areas of human activity, from agriculture through the energy industry to air transport. This bachelor thesis describes successively different tasks which are behind the weather forecast, with an emphasis on the air temperature prediction. A brief overview of the weather forecasting history, from subjective methods to objective methods, is provided at the beginning of the work. A description of the air temperature measurement for the subsequent use in numerical models is also provided. Following part of the thesis deals with the prediction of the air temperature, from the description of the temporal cycles of the surface and air temperature, through the description of atmospheric dynamics and various physical processes, to the comparison of the air temperature determination in the frequently used numerical atmospheric models. The last part of the thesis focuses on the weather forecast verification and statistical evaluation of the air temperature prediction quality using data from the numerical model ALADIN. In relation with aviation meteorology, the work discusses the impact of air temperature on aviation safety.
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Numerical weather prediction with WRF model
Kotků, Jirka ; Belda, Michal (advisor) ; Huszár, Peter (referee)
This bachelor's thesis deals with the comparison of the simulation results using different vertical coordinate systems, namely the terrain following system and the hybrid vertical coordinate system. We begin with the brief introduction of numerical prediction models in general and then the introduction of the WRF model used in this thesis. The attention is paid to the description of vertical coordinate systems as well as to the presentation of its components and the process of starting a simulation. The next section describes the setting of the WRF model used in this thesis. It is followed by the graphical output of the simulations with the comparison of the results. Comparison of the vertical temperature and wind speed profile was made with real data from the soundings performed in Prague-Libuš by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.
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Turbulence modeling with WRF model
Peštová, Zuzana ; Belda, Michal (advisor) ; Halenka, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor's thesis deals with the comparison of WRF simulation results using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and physical parametrization at lower resolution. The first part is dedicated to the turbulent flow and Navier-Stokes equations. This part also contains basic information on the methods by which we can model the turbulent flow. These methods are DNS, RANS and LES. In the next part, atmospheric numerical models are presented and the WRF model is described in more detail, including a description of its execution. The main part of the thesis deals with the description of the performed simulations and the comparison of the results. The results obtained are compared first with real data and then for individual simulations with different parameterizations. 1
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Modelling assessment of scenarios of urban development to air quality and thermal comfort at street level
Resler, Jaroslav ; Krč, Pavel ; Belda, Michal ; Juruš, Pavel ; Benešová, N. ; Vlček, O. ; Damašková, D. ; Eben, Kryštof ; Derbek, P.
A new model for simulations of urban environment USM was developed and integrated into LES model PALM inside the project UrbanAdapt. The model allows simulations of air flow, radiation, air temperature and temperature of materials, air pollution and indices MRT and PET in fine resolution. The surrounding of a crossroad of the streets Komunardu and Delnicka in Praha-Holesovice was chosen as a pilot area in collaboration with IPR Prague. Studied scenarios included changes of housing development as well as assessment of different types of plant canopy and sensitivity studies of the colour of walls, roofs, streets and pavements.
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Development and validation of the new model of thermal conditions of urban environment in fine resolution
Resler, Jaroslav ; Krč, Pavel ; Belda, Michal ; Juruš, Pavel ; Benešová, N. ; Lopata, J. ; Vlček, O. ; Damašková, D. ; Eben, Kryštof ; Derbek, P. ; Maronga, P. ; Kanani-Sühring, F.
The assessment of different scenarios of the city development to air quality and thermal comfort in the areas of street canyons was our main goal inside the project UrbanAdapt. It follows the need for a model which allows to simulate air flows in fine resolution of the order of meter and realistically predict turbulence in the complex terrain of streets and buildings. The LES models comply with such requirements but the review showed that there was no free available LES model which could model the energy exchange in urban environment, i.e. the interaction of energy and air flows including effects of vegetation and different properties of urban surfaces and materials. Thus we decided to extend the existing LES model PALM by a new module USM (Urban Surface Model) which describes the most important energy exchanges in the urban environment. The validation of the model was done against observations obtained by IR camera in the course of heat wave episode in July 2015.
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Analysis and assessment of ensemble simulations of regional climate models in Europe for selected scenarios of greenhouse gases
Kluková, Zuzana ; Halenka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Belda, Michal (referee)
An analysis of the air temperature and precipitation for historical and future experiments of regional climate models from Euro-CORDEX activity is presented. A validation of models was performed for the time period 1989 - 2005 using the comparison of model results with E-OBS dataset which represents real values. For this period results show good agreement for temperature, much worse agreement appears for precipitation where their overestimation is more typical. The future evaluation based on the scenarios of greenhouse gases RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was investigated for periods 2021 - 2050 and 2071 - 2100 in comparison with the period 1971 - 2000 as reference. For the simulations of the future climate we can notice an approximately linear increase of temperatures which is most significant in the northeast Europe. For precipitation models predict their increase in the north Europe and decrease in the south Europe.
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Analysis of Euro-CORDEX regional climate models results
Kluková, Zuzana ; Halenka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Belda, Michal (referee)
In this submitted barchelor's thesis an analysis of the air temperature and precipitation for regional climate models from Euro-CORDEX activity is performed for time period 1989 - 2008. Models are also compared with E-OBS dataset which represents real values. Specifically, models WRF331C (instituce BCCR), RegCM4-2 (CUNI), RegCM4-2 (DHMZ), WRFV35D (IDL), WRF331F (IPSL+INERIS), RACMO22E (KNMI), HadRM3P (Met Office), RCA4 (SMHI), WRF331G (UCAN), PROMES (UCLM) a CCLM-COSMO (WEGC) with resolution 0,11 and 0,44 degrees were considered for the analysis. The analysis is based on the comparison of annual courses, seasonal maps of model biases and Taylor diagrams. Results show good match of models with E-OBS for temperature, much worse agreement appears for precipitation. Temperatures are lower than E-OBS in winter and both higher and lower in summer. Precipitation is usually overestimated.
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Regional Climate Modeling
Belda, Michal ; Halenka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Huth, Radan (referee) ; Metelka, Ladislav (referee)
Regional climate models are commonly used for downscaling global climate simulations to the regional scale using nested limited-area models. One of the main goals of this work was the application of regional model RegCM in very high resolution for the region with complex topography in the framework of EC FP6 project CECILIA. RegCM was employed to downscale climate change scenario simulations performed by ECHAM5 model according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario for Central and Eastern Europe in 10km resolution. Validation of model performance, assessed by nesting RegCM in ERA-40 reanalysis, shows improvement of regional climate patterns mainly in mountainous areas. Temperature is well represented with mostly cold bias around -1 žC. Precipitation is affected by large biases around 80 %, in mountainous areas up to 400 % overestimation in winter. Downscaled climate change signal shows average warming 0.51.5 žC in period 20212050 and 24 žC in period 20712100. Precipitation changes are mostly within ±0.5 mm/day. RegCM3beta version with adjusted precipitation scheme parameters shows improvement of the precipitation bias, difference in climate change is rather negligible. Experiments with different convection schemes of RegCM in a case study for Africa performed in the framework of CORDEX project are...
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Model WRF and its application for regional climate modelling in high resolution
Karlický, Jan ; Halenka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Belda, Michal (referee)
This work is dealing with regional climate models. Firstly, their principle and use of them is described, including advantages and disadvantages of this approach. Further, the application of WRF numerical weather prediction model in climate mode is described and differences in use of CLWRF modification and its advantages for getting results are discussed. Possibilities of this implementation and testing runs for finding appropriate settings are presented. Finally, the results of one ten-year and four five-year simulations of model with different settings are compared with observed values. Some chapters are dedicated to possibilities of processing and graphics outputs of model results and discussion.
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Eulerovské chemické transportní modely, jejich výhody a možnosti využití
Resler, Jaroslav ; Karel, J. ; Jireš, R. ; Liczki, Jitka ; Belda, Michal ; Eben, Kryštof ; Kasanický, Ivan ; Juruš, Pavel ; Vlček, O. ; Benešová, N. ; Kazmuková, M.
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