Důsledky kandidatury Visegrádské čtyřky na mistrovství světa ve fotbale na blahobyt

Svoboda, Václav

This thesis evaluates whether a FIFA World Cup jointly hosted by the Visegrád Four countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) could be economically viable under the current 48-team format. The question is relevant because sporting mega-events are routinely promoted on the basis of tourism gains and infrastructure development, yet the academic literature consistently finds that their tangible returns are overstated and that public budgets bear most of the cost. The analysis is structured as a bottom-up cost-benefit assessment combining an original econometric model of stadium costs, a gap analysis of the V4 region against FIFA hosting requirements, a synthetic control method analysis of tourism effects from previous mega-events, and a willingness-to-pay transfer based on UEFA EURO 2012. Total costs are estimated at EUR 4.69 billion, against central tourism and intangible benefits of EUR 786 million and EUR 2.53 billion, with optimistic upper bounds of EUR 1.25 billion and EUR 3.42 billion. The thesis concludes that a V4-only bid is not viable on tangi- ble grounds, that benefits and costs are unevenly distributed across the four countries, and that the gap to viability closes only under the most optimistic assumptions about intangible value, which would require firmer evidence than currently...

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