Vysvětlení české inflace pomocí Bernankeho-Blanchardova rámce: Explorativní rozšíření o cenovou hladinu

Šmíro, Václav

This thesis analyzes the drivers of post-pandemic inflation in the Czech Re- public using the semi-structural framework of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023). The primary goal of this analysis is to provide a country-specific application of the model, ensuring comparability with existing international evidence. As an exploratory extension, the framework is further augmented by incorporating a proxy for the domestic price level into the price equation. The empirical results indicate that the inflation surge was primarily driven by external cost-push shocks with a relatively strong pass-through to domes- tic inflation. The persistence of inflation remains substantial, pointing to backward-looking price-setting behavior. Labor market tightness is found to be an important driver of wage dynamics; however, the estimated catch-up effect is negative, suggesting that past inflation surprises did not translate into higher nominal wage growth. Regarding the exploratory extension, the specification including the price level gap does not provide statistically significant evidence of state-dependent amplification of external shocks. This result is robust across alternative speci- fication. These findings imply that inflation can remain high even in the absence of strong second-round wage effects. JEL Classification...

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