Role hybridní války v adaptaci Ruska na asymetrie v konvenčním odstrašování s NATO

Belák, Filip

- The role of Hybrid warfare in Russia's Adaptation to Conventional Deterrence Asymmetry with NATO This thesis examines Russia's use of hybrid warfare methods and their impact on deterrence dynamics with NATO. Focusing on the pre- and post-Ukraine invasion period to assess the changes in the conventional deterrence posture, the thesis argues that Russia has intensified hybrid operations against NATO states as a means of compensating for this newly created conventional imbalance. By exploiting the ambiguity surrounding Article 5 applicability in hybrid warfare scenarios, Russia seeks to challenge NATO's resolve and prompt debate on countering these threats, thereby highlighting the need for expanded deterrence in the hybrid domain. Drawing on a combination of deterrence theory and quantitative analysis, the study demonstrates a notable relation between Russian battlefield losses and the escalation of hybrid activity. In doing so, it contributes to understanding hybrid warfare as an instrument of strategic adjustment under conditions of conventional asymmetry.

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