Odhad strukturálního deficitu a udržitelnosti českých veřejných financí

Volf, Kryštof

This bachelor thesis provides a comprehensive estimation of the Czech Repub- lic's structural budget balance using updated methodologies and newest data. The structural balance, which adjusts the headline budget for business cycle e!ects and one-o! measures, is crucial for assessing fiscal sustainability and compliance with fiscal rules. The analysis employs three methodologies to es- timate potential output and output gaps: the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, the boosted HP filter, and a production function approach following Czech Ministry of Finance methodology. The cyclically-adjusted budget balance is calculated using both aggregate and disaggregated approaches as a robustness check. The thesis's primary contribution lies in re-estimating fiscal elasticities for the Czech Republic using updated time-series and panel data techniques. Key findings include a corporate income tax elasticity of 1.48, an unemploy- ment spending elasticity of -3.86, and an aggregate budgetary semi-elasticity of 0.40. The results indicate that the Czech Republic's structural deficit for 2024 is 1.8% of potential GDP, revealing a persistent underlying fiscal imbalance. A brief analysis using National Budget Council projections demonstrates that this structural position contributes to an unsustainable long-term debt...

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