National Repository of Grey Literature 22 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Pairs Trading in Cryptocurrency Markets
Fil, Miroslav ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Hronec, Martin (referee)
Pairs trading is a trading strategy which tries to exploit mean-reversion among prices of certain securities. It is market-neutral and self-financing, and has been shown to produce high excess returns in historical backtests. We employ the most common distance and cointegration approaches on cryp- tocurrency data from an exchange called Binance spanning the year 2018. The strategy is mostly unprofitable under transaction costs, but certain combinations of hyperparameters can perform well. Overall, the distance method performs far better, being able to achieve 3% monthly profit even in our baseline real-life con- ditions while the cointegration method always achieves only a slight loss. We also found that increasing the sampling frequency of the data from daily to hourly brings mixed results. Moreover, since we have to reuse estimates of real-life considerations from equity markets, it is unclear if our results are truly representative of the cryp- tocurrency market. The strategy is found to be very sensitive to execution diffi- culties and transaction costs, making their determination crucially important. It is somewhat easy to get returns in excess of 5% monthly under ideal conditions, but whether this could be achieved in real trading conditions is still unclear. Keywords pairs trading,...
Relationship between consumption of cigarettes and alcohol in the Czech Republic
Kania, Vojtěch ; Votápková, Jana (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Martin (referee)
This thesis investigates the relationship between the consumption of cigarettes and pure alcohol in the Czech Republic during 1955-2016. It tests for a unit root in both series using ADF test and KPSS test. Next, Engle-Granger procedure and Johansen trace test are used to test for a cointegration relation between the two time-series. Both the ADF and the KPSS test found a presence of a unit root when controlled for a shift in a mean in 1989. However, Engle-Granger procedure did not find enough evidence for a cointegration relation, which was confirmed by Johansen trace test. The same results were obtained when only a subsample 1955-1989 was considered.
Cointegration and EC model
Asipenka, Hanna ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The thesis deals with the concept of cointegration of time series and related error correction model. First, we introduce the basic definitions and theorems that are necessary for understanding the subject of other chapters. Then we focus on the definition of cointegration and the issue of tests for cointegration. Next, we define the error correction model in general in the vector autoregression as well. We will show and prove Granger's representation theorem, which will allow the construction of the EC model in the next section of the chapter. Finally, we apply the written theory to real time series. We perform cointegration tests and construct the relevant EC model. 1
Statistical analysis of the dependency time series of the natality and nuptiality in the Czech Republic
Opluštilová, Jolana ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Blatná, Dagmar (referee)
This diploma thesis is dealing with the study of dependence between birth and marriage in the Czech Republic in 1973-2016, this period is divided into two time point, due to the demographic transition and the new political regime, before 1989 (state regulated economy) and after 1989 (the changeover to a market economy). The basis for multidimensional analysis of time series is the starting point for finding the relationship or dependency between the monitored characteristics. The demographic indicator of birth rate (natality) is characterized by the number of live births and the marriage rate (nuptiality) by the number of marriages in the Czech Republic, available at monthly frequency. In the introduction of this thesis, the hypothesis of the absence of dependence (relationship) between the observed time series is determined, which will be analysed at the end of the analysis for both time series. The results of this thesis can be helpful not only to experts who were engaged with this issue in detail, but also to those interested in demographics or time series, because the prediction of these indicators will be simulated in the end of this paper.
Population viability analysis of endangered species in Czech Republic
Šťastná, Andrea ; Helman, Karel (advisor) ; Bašta, Milan (referee)
Diploma thesis analyzes the viability of the selected species populations in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part contains a stochastic model simulating possible scenarios of the Eurasian lynx population size in the Czech Republic. For this model program Vortex was used. The second part is focused on Time series analysis of the Grey Partridge and the Common Kingfisher population, where data was obtained from the Czech Society for Ornithology. This analysis aims on identification of factors that may affect the viability of the two bird species.
CEE & SEE Markets Macro-Fundamental Analysis
Poštulková, Jitka ; Polyák, Oliver (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...
Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange
Nušlová, Alice ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
Bibliographic entry: NUŠLOVÁ, Alice. Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange. Prague, 2014. Bachelor thesis, Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Stud- ies. Supervisor: PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D. Title: Pairs Trading at the Prague Stock Exchange Author: Alice Nušlová Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail address: Abstract: Since its birth in the 1980s, pairs trading has become a widely used strategy for making profits among hedge funds and institutional investors. This technique identifies pairs of securities whose historical prices show long-run relationship, and takes advantage of their short- term relative mispricing. Profit is generated due to correcting behavior of security prices as they converge towards equilibrium value of their spread. The aim of this thesis is to compare two traditional approaches to pairs trading: cointegration and sum of squared deviations between normalized historical returns, known as distance criterion, within the Prague Stock Exchange equity market. We further investigate whether the two methods, so commonly employed in the US equity market, can be applied with similar success in the PSE. Our results reveal that the strategy using distance...
Range-based volatility estimation and forecasting
Benčík, Daniel ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
In this thesis, we analyze new possibilities in predicting daily ranges, i.e. the differences between daily high and low prices. The main focus of our work lies in investigating how models commonly used for daily ranges modeling can be enhanced to provide better forecasts. In this respect, we explore the added benefit of using more efficient volatility measures as predictors of daily ranges. Volatility measures considered in this work include realized measures of variance (realized range, realized variance) and range-based volatility measures (Parkinson, Garman & Klass, Rogers & Satchell, etc). As a subtask, we empirically assess efficiency gains in volatility estimation when using range-based estimators as opposed to simple daily ranges. As another venue of research in this work, we analyze the added benefit of slicing the trading day into different sessions based on trading activity (e.g. Asian, European and American session). In this setting we analyze whether whole-day volatility measures reliably aggregate information coming from all trading sessions. We are led by intuition that different sessions exhibit significantly different characteristics due to different order book thicknesses and trading activity in general. Thus these sessions are expected to provide valuable information concealed in...
Fiscal Rules in the European Union
Výprachtická, Terezie ; Šmídková, Kateřina (advisor) ; Schneider, Ondřej (referee)
ABSTRACTS PART I - The EMU and its Fiscal Rules This paper treats the fiscal rules of the European Economic and Monetary Union. It begins by introducing this union's inception and by discussing its set of fiscal rules - the Stability and Growth Pact, including its reform. The rationale for policy coordination and the need for fiscal rules in a monetary union are then investigated. The Stability and Growth Pact is then assessed from this point of view. The most important part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of whether the Stability and Growth Pact could be substituted by the disciplining effect of the financial markets. Our findings suggest that there is certain interaction between the financial markets and the governments' decisions on the fiscal policies and that this reaction has become stronger after the beginning of the latest financial and economic crisis. However, the institutional setup and market conditions in the European Union are such that this interaction is biased and thus we conclude that the Union needs to have fiscal rules. JEL Classification: C23, E44, E61, E62, H62, H87 Keywords: European Economic and Monetary Union, Stability and Growth Pact, Financial markets, Fiscal rules, Policy coordination PART II - The Golden Rule of Public Finance and Productivity of Public Capital This...

National Repository of Grey Literature : 22 records found   1 - 10nextend  jump to record:
Interested in being notified about new results for this query?
Subscribe to the RSS feed.