National Repository of Grey Literature 58 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Recursive estimates of financial time series
Vejmělka, Petr ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
This work aims to describe the method of recursive estimation of time series with conditional volatility, used mainly in finance. First, there are described the basic types of models with conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and princi- ples of state-space modeling demonstrated by means of linear models AR and ARMA. Subsequently, there are derived algorithms for recursive estimation of parameters of the GARCH model and its possible modifications including the ones for which recursive estimation formulas have not been yet derived in lit- erature. These algorithms are tested in a simulation study, where their appli- cability in practice is investigated. Finally, we apply these algorithms to real high-frequency data from the stock exchange. The practical part is done us- ing the software Mathematica 11.3. The work also serves as an overview of the current state of online modeling of financial time series. 1
The weather and stock returns
Černý, Patrik ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Čornanič, Aleš (referee)
This thesis examines a behavioral finance topic, the effect of weather on stock returns. The research was performed with the aim to verify formerly published results of various weather variables like sunshine, precipitation or temperature influencing stock markets. For the analysis Ordinary Least Squares regressions were implemented to investigate the relationships of stock returns and weather variables proposed in the previous literature as well as other market efficiency effects, a Monday and a January effect. In addition, GARCH model was carried out to check the influence of weather conditions on stock return volatility. Data used for the analysis consists of 24 emerging and 23 developed markets worldwide in the period 2006-2017. The results are not in support of the theory of weather affecting market trading which corresponds to the market efficiency theory. There seems to be no difference between the developed and emerging countries, not even countries' land area plays a role. However, in the thesis repeatedly appears significant evidence of the presence of the Monday effect. Keywords Behavioral finance, Weather effect, Market efficiency, Anomaly, GARCH 1
Effect of Election Preferences on the Stock Prices
Efros, Ganna ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
There exist a lot of empirical researches, that examine what factors effect the stock market volatility. The concept of investor sentiment is quite popular and is frequently discussed. However, there does not exist any research which would study the relation between the change in election preferences during the presidential campaigns and stock market volatility. The present thesis explores the effect of political sentiment on United States and French models. Here, we construct the model, which examines the effect of change in election preferences on the volatility. The results suggest, that change in election preferences does not affect the stock market volatility during the presidential campaign. Thus, its inclusion to the model does not increase the prediction power.
Trading strategies based on estimates of conditional distribution of stock returns
Sedlačík, Adam ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
In this thesis, a new trading strategy is proposed. By the help of quantile regression, the conditional distribution functions of stock market returns are estimated. Based on the knowledge of the distribution the strategy produced buying and selling signals which together with a weight function derived from exponential moving averages determines how much and when to buy or sell. The strategy performs better than the market in terms of absolute return and the Sharpe ratio in-sample, but it does not provide satisfactory results out-of-sample.
Volatility modeling
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Prášková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
In the thesis we deal with modelling volatility conditional on past shocks. Traditional ARCH and GARCH models proposed by Engle(1982) and Bollerslev(1986) are investigated as well as several generalizations of GARCH model that capture asymmetric reaction on positive and negative excess returns, namely GJR-GARCH, TGARCH and EGARCH. Selected models are then applied to four commodities traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange that represent various sectors of commodity market. Our first key finding is that in short horizon all considered models have similar performance, while in longer horizon, EGARCH and TGARCH give more precise results. The second is that, measured by an average percentage error, there is no significant difference in quality of predictions among selected assets across commodity sectors.
Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Spot Prices
Kubišová, Barbora ; Hendrych, Radek (advisor) ; Hudecová, Šárka (referee)
The thesis deals with modeling and forecasting of natural gas spot prices, con- sumption of natural gas and average daily temperature. We assume that these three variables are influenced by each other, because as temperature decreases, consumption increases, which in turn increases the price with the increasing de- mand. Therefore, we propose to model these variables by vector autoregression. We compare this model with one-dimensional models where for each one we build a model from the ARMA-GARCH class. Models are estimated using historic va- lues and then designed models are used to simulate scenarios. Analysis of scenarios provides information to gas supply companies estimates of portfolio consumption and financial flows related to the purchase concerning natural gas. 1
Conventional vs. Shariah stock indices: Volatility, Financial Contagion, Interest Rate Risk and Gold as Safe Haven
Hashmi, Osaid ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis aims at the comparison of volatility between conventional stock indices and their Shariah counterparts. We study the time-varying volatility and correlation of both categories using GARCH models, during Global Financial Crisis and afterwards, from January 2008 to March 2017. We analyze the Global stock indices drilling down into their Developed and Emerging market segments, and study the U.S. market; considering U.S. as the origin of the crisis. Extending traditional approach, we study difference of time-varying volatility between conventional and Shariah indices, and thoroughly study its dynamic development during the study period. Employing DCC-GARCH, we investigate the financial contagion within markets and find Shariah indices to be significantly affected by it. We find Shariah stocks to be less risky and a diversification opportunity during crisis, but based on market; unlike other markets, Shariah stocks are more volatile in Emerging markets. We also examine correlations of stock indices with interest rates and analyze the role of gold as a safe-haven for Shariah investors. We observe Shariah indices to be having correlation with interest rates similar to that of conventional indices, hence exposed to interest rate risk. Finally, we find that gold is less correlated to Shariah...
Brexit and Stock Market Comovements of UK and Europe
Bedrichová, Táňa ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The referendum organised in United Kingdom on June 23rd , 2016 led to an unexpected decision to leave the European Union. Since Brexit announcement, uncertainty about the economic prospects of the United Kingdom and of the EU has increased, and multiple research has been conducted to estimate the economic implication of Brexit for the UK as well as for the rest of Europe. The thesis addresses this topic from the point of view of financial markets correlation, and assesses how did the Brexit announcement and the outcome of the 2016 referendum influenced the cointegration of the UK stock market with those of continental Europe. Using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, and European stock markets data, the thesis concludes that correlation of UK and European stock markets decreased since the referendum announcement, and further decrease has been observed after the vote took place. JEL Classification: C01, C39, D89, F15, F30, F36, G19 Key words: Brexit, uncertainty, stock market cointegration, European Union, financial markets Author's e-mail: tana.bedrichova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
The Volatility Patterns and Correlation of Cryptocurrencies: Overcoming the Bitcoin's primacy
Šembera, Tomáš ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The thesis focuses at the evolution of cryptocurrencies or more precisely at the competition process between them in expanding to broader usage. The first main goal of the work is to find out, whether Bitcoin, as the first and still most capitalized cryptocurrency, has an advantage of higher maturity than alternative cryptocurrencies. The second goal is to analyze whether the individual cryptocurrencies are perceived individually by market participants, which could grant the alternative cryptocurrencies an option to compete with Bitcoin by offering better features as safer technology or faster transaction. The analysis of volatility patterns in their exchange rates via various GARCH models suggests that Bitcoin still has advantage in higher maturity. The analysis of the correlation between various alternative cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin finds positive correlation and thus suggests that the cryptocurrencies are rather perceived together. JEL Classification G17, G19, E40, E41 Keywords cryptocurrencies, volatility, GARCH, money, correlation Author's e-mail 79828843@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail frantisek.cech@fsv.cuni.cz

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