National Repository of Grey Literature 173 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Global Economic Outlook - September 2017
Česká národní banka
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also look at the real exchange rate phenomenon from the perspective of what it tells us about EU countries. The real exchange rate reflects movements in both the nominal exchange rate and relative price levels. This means it can be used, for example, to assess a country’s convergence efforts (towards the core euro area countries), to discuss the central bank’s effect on the distribution of real appreciation (between the nominal exchange rate and the inflation differential channels) and to track the external competitiveness of an EU economy, and hence also the euro area. This is the line followed by our article, which examines the period from the establishment of the euro area in 1999 to the present.
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International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries
Hájek, Jan ; Horváth, Roman
We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with Southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have greater effects than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.
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Global Economic Outlook - August 2017
Česká národní banka
The August issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we continue our summer mini-series on the economic impacts of Brexit on the United Kingdom. In the July issue, we focused on the short-term effects, whereas this issue summarises the conclusions of the most important studies analysing Brexit from the longer-term perspective. These studies concur that the UK economy will lose out by leaving the EU, a prediction that is gradually being confirmed by actual economic developments. However, it is still difficult to estimate the real extent of the economic impacts of Brexit, as it will depend primarily on the terms negotiated between the UK and the EU. In our analysis, we therefore present the main possible scenarios quantifying how much the UK will pay for Brexit in terms of loss of GDP.
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The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy impact on the Czech banking sector
Bohovicová, Petra ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Jakl, Jakub (referee)
This thesis analyzes the impact of the monetary policy of the Czech Republic on the Czech banking sector. It explains the monetary transmission mechanism in an inflation targeting regime and its channels: interest rates channel, asset price channel, exchange rate channel and credit channel. The aim of the thesis is to introduce and analyze channels of the Czech transmission mechanism by Correlation and Graphical Analysis of chosen time series and using Linear Regression Model. The analyses are calculated in MS Excel and Gretl.
Updating the Ultimate Forward Rate over Time: a Possible Approach
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr
This study proposes a potential methodological approach to be used by regulators when updating the Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimisation of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises the UFR based on the distance between the value implied by the long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of the UFR valid in the prior year. We employ both the Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the UFR and compare them with the observed yields using the mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameters of the proposed UFR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.
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Central Bank Monitoring - June 2017
Česká národní banka
Most of the central banks under review, including the ECB, are keeping their interest rates at low levels. The US Fed was alone in raising its key interest rate by 0.25 pp to 0.75%–1.00% as expected, and is addressing the issue of reducing its balance sheet. Although inflation is close to central banks’ inflation targets in all the economies under review except Switzerland, most of the banks are maintaining their unconventional monetary policy programmes. The Swedish Riks bank raised its target amount for government bond purchases. Spotlight focuses on the options and strategies for reducing the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. In our Selected Speech, SNB Governor Thomas J. Jordan talks about the effect of the increase in the SNB’s balance sheet on its investment policy.
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Central Bank Monitoring - March 2017
Česká národní banka
Most of the central banks under review, including the ECB, are keeping their interest rates still at low levels. The US Fed was alone in raising its key interest rate by 0.25pp, in line with expectations. Inflation has now exceeded the 1% level in all the monitored economies except Switzerland and seems to be heading towards central banks’ inflation targets. However, most of the banks are still maintaining their unconventional monetary policy programmes. Spotlight focuses on modern forms of central bank communication. In our Selected Speech, the deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir Jon Cunliffe presents the results of a survey of the investment behaviour of firms, an essential element of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
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Building Societies in Low Interest Rate Environment
Hanzlík, Petr ; Džmuráňová, Hana (advisor) ; Baniar, Matúš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse the impact of low interest rate environment in the Czech Republic in recent years on the sector of building societies as a specific segment of the financial market. First part of the thesis consists of description of main characteristics of building savings and building societies, e.g. their historical development, with special focus on main types of risk the building societies face. In the second part the impact of changing market interest rate on outstanding volumes of deposits in building societies is analysed. The analysis is conducted through simple time series models estimated by OLS. Final part includes comparison of demand for building savings loans with demand for mortgages as well as consideration of the development of profitability of the sector of building societies in recent years. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
The Role of the Interest Rate in Causing the Great Depression
Ali, Bano ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the major causes of the severe economic depression appeared in 1930s. It focuses on the role of the interest rate in its causing and the duration of it. The aim is to - through the comparison of three economic schools - Keynesians, Austrians, and Monetarists - show the different views of understanding the interest rate as such and then apply them on the situation before and during the crisis to explain various perspectives on its role in possible causing of the contraction of economic activity in a process of the business cycle. The comparison outlines, how deeply individual schools differ. While Keynesians considered the dear money and high interest rates as the main cause of the crisis and similarly to Monetarists, they both suggested keeping them on low level, Austrians promptly refused the policy of low interest rates. Further, firstly, it shows the inverse relationship between the growth of money supply and interest rates in 1920s and proves that the decrease of interest rates was caused to large extent by the increased quantity of money. Secondly, it provides the evidence that the growth of money supply and of investment spending was larger than the growth of gross domestic product.
Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Closer Look Inside the Black Box
Dvořák, Martin ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Lypko, Vyacheslav (referee)
The recent economic and financial turmoil has led central banks around the world to heavily utilize unconventional monetary policy measures. Unconventional in this sense means a deflection from traditional central bank policy measures, i.e. interest rate innovations. Although these measures were widely discussed, the uniformed, coherent and comprehensive framework of such measures is still missing. The aim of this thesis is to establish the framework for possible classification of such policies together with transmission channels to the real economy. The empirical part examines the impacts of unconventional policies on real data using vector autoregression and vector error correction models. This analysis is based on monthly data period between 1999 and 2013, which is strongly affected by implementation of the unconventional policies in its second half. The last section examines the possible future of these policies as a normal instrument of central banks and describes their main challenges and shortcomings. JEL classification: C32, E40, E44, E50, E52, E58, E60 Keywords: Unconventional monetary policy, Interest rate, Decoupling principle, Balance sheet policy stratification, Quantitative easing, Channels of transmission, Vector Autoregression, Vector error correction model Author's e-mail:...

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