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Tools for Decision Making under Uncertainty
Sečkárová, Vladimíra
In this paper we focus on two often considered distinct aims, namely maximizing of an utility function (e.g. an investment profit) and getting a more reliable global description of considered situation based on observed data (e.g. the final outcome of databases merging). In both cases we face the problem, that the data are unreliable, since they contain uncertainty caused by their source (i.e. human being). If we are looking for the optimum of the former aim, a game theory reformulation of the decision making task brings a smoother way to reach it. If the latter aim is considered, a merging procedure (also called fusion) processing the data should help us. This paper describes four recently developed methods dealing with decision making under uncertainty in two considered directions and one tool used for comparison of the fusion algorithms.
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Technological Foresight: Analysis of Potentially Disruptive Future Technologies in Banking
Dunovský, Tomáš ; Jiřinová, Kateřina (advisor) ; Žďára, Tomáš (referee)
This Master's Thesis is focused on technological foresight in the banking industry in Europe. It includes consecutive two parts. The first one is theoretical and focuses on defining the terms necessary for the development of technological foresight, stated criteria, triggers and terms necessary for the development of analysis of potential technological problems and their solutions. The second part is practical and it includes the technological foresight, analysis of trends that will disrupt banking and introduce a vision of personal banking product of the future. A comparison of product vision to current trends and if those can be considered disruptive follow this part. The last part of the thesis includes diffusion criteria of innovation as according to the Rogers's Model, a set of triggers after which the defined investment fund can consider an investment into technology, and an analysis of potential technological issues with proposed solutions.
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Multicriteria games
Tichá, Michaela ; Dlouhý, Martin (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee) ; Čičková, Zuzana (referee)
Theory of multicriteria games is a special field of game theory, when one or more players have at least two payoff functions and want to maximize simultaneously. The work introduces a number of new findings. It examined the concept of finding equilibria in pure strategies in noncooperative multicriteria game. It is possible to find all the equilibria in pure strategies by full search and solving two linear programs for each point. Furthermore, two linear programs are formulated for verifying that a selected point is the equilibrium of the game or not. In the noncooperative games is also introduced the concept that with knowledge of the equilibrium of bimatrix game determines preferences of the players. Although finding the equilibrium point of the bimatrix game is nonlinear problem, finding the preferences is linear problem. The latest findings in the noncooperative games is a generalization of the concept that solves multicriteria game by assigning weights to each criterion of each player. The work demonstrates that it may not be necessarily linear weights, but it can be more general function that describes the player's preference. The remaining part is devoted to knowledge in cooperative games. There is considered that the players know their preferences and are able to express them by weights. The game with known preferences is defined and solved with the use of bargaining theory. Then it is generalized to a case where players have more payoff functions, from which they can choose. Finally, the multicriteria case of voting game is defined. It is designed completely new concept, which selects the winning coalition in the voting game. This concept is then applied to the real situation after the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 2013.
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Role of UNHCR in case of asylum seekers, refugees and stateless persons – the case study of Turkey
Unzeitigová, Klára ; Novotná, Markéta (advisor) ; Kuchařová, Alžběta (referee)
Inspired by the Kratochvíl, Cibulková and Beník´s model of actorness, the thesis explores the framing power of UNHCR. The critical discourse analysis introduced by Norman Fairclough is applied in order to analyze the textual, contextual and sociocultural dimension of the UNHCR framing power. The case of Turkey was chosen for this study due to the current situation and the fact that Turkey is one of the biggest hosting country in the refugees´ crisis. Through the critical discourse analysis, the thesis explores whether UNHCR is considered as a framing actor in the case of asylum seekers, refugees and stateless people in Turkey. The analysis shows that UNHCR is globally respected and takes important part in the issue. However, not all of the international organizations refer to UNHCR as the lawmaker and the initiator of debates in the issues mentioned above.
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Progress, outcome, future scenarios and threats of multilateral trading system (WTO)
Kozáková, Michaela ; Štěrbová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Trojanová, Kamila (referee)
This diploma thesis aims to set a complex view on the current process of multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization and point out the direction of DOHA negotiations. The emphasis is put on the Tenth Ministerial Conference, which took place in Nairobi in December 2015. Stances and demands of the WTO member are analysed step by step. The thesis considers threats that possibly come from plurilateral, bilateral and regional agreements and evaluate a potential risk for the multilateral trading system. For this purpose, the thesis is divided into four chapters. First chapter examine theoretical introduction to WTO and particularly to Development Doha Agenda, which is important for subsequent understanding of actual issues. Second part analyses in detail the negotiations in main negotiating parts of DDA before and after a summer break. Following chapter fluently continues with analyse of the progress after summer break and points out some current questions about preparations for MC10 and expectations. Space is also given to the MC10 and its outcomes. Finally, the last chapter gives a thought to future scenarios concerning function of the WTO.
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Profile and reflections of dance department of the Juilliard school
Červinka, Marek ; JANEČEK, Václav (advisor) ; KŘENKOVÁ, Mahulena (referee)
This bachelor thesis, called Profile and Reflection of Juilliard School’s Dance Division, first of all briefly touches the key events in history of both classical and modern dance in the first half of the twentieth century and then approaches the history of The Bennington School of the Dance which is considered to be the Juilliard’s predecessor. After a general historical overview, descriptions of the educational goals and study programs, is the rest of the work focussing on Juilliard’s Dance Division in detail. Its past accomplishments, famous teachers, study programs and the admission procedures are discussed. All these information, including the interviews with Jarek Cemerek, a Czech choreographer and dance teacher, and with Brennan Clost, a current student of the fourth year at The Juilliard School, were used as a final reflection of Juilliard’s Dance Division. The comparison of Czech dance schools with The Juilliard School is comprised in this section.
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Interpretive principles in Verdi's operas
Beneš, Andrej ; HAJÓSSYOVÁ, Magdaléna (advisor) ; VOTAVOVÁ, Yvona (referee)
The master’s thesis deals with the theme creation of the opera production of Giuseppe Verdi with the focus on his opera Falstaff and deals with significant important interpretations of this opera. This dissertation is supposed to bring a complete picture of Verdi’s opera production pointing out some details which are not commonly known nor from the public nor in the professional music world. What appears in this work is Verdi’s correspondence (letters). I consider these letters an authentic source to understand Verdi’s creative and artistic intentions. Hereafter I portray an idea of how to perceive opera Falstaff not only from my point of view but I used the lead from the Italian reviews and musicology.
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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Lifelong Education as a Part of the Social System
Neckařová, Jana ; Šrédl, Karel (advisor) ; Hana, Hana (referee)
The diploma thesis discusses about education of adult population, while pointing out necessity of education in any age. This thesis explain importance of education of the adult population, mention forms and possible methods which are used in this type of education the most. Besides the theoretical outcome there is practical aspect included as well in form of questionnaires. Investigation in form of research was focused directly on employees, who as well as on employers whose employees attended the program. In summary both parties consider adulthood gained knowledge as a great benefit to employee as well as employer. In any case, people with higher level of education have better chances of getting a possible job than those with no or low level of education.
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Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
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