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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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The value of life from macroenomic point of view in United States of America, Czech republic and Russia between years 2007-2014
Antoš, Michal ; Zeman, Martin (advisor) ; Brabec, Petr (referee)
The subject of this bachelor thesis is the research of the value of life calculation in the Czech republic, United states of America and Russia in 2007-2014.The main purpose is to analyze and compare values of life and major factors influencing them. The hypothesis is that value of life differs in selected countries due to distinctions of sections influencing them. The theoretical part is devoted to sections directly or indirectly influencing values of life, and then analyzing and comparing them together within the selected countries. The selected sections are education, health care, labor market, inequality and living standards. The practical thesis approach is to calculate the values of life for the individual states. The values of life are calculated for so called, representative individual, who is 40-years old citizen of selected country. In the period, in which is the value of life calculated, the retirement age and life expectancy are also considered in formula. Calculated values are examined and the economic and political measures are offered to the states, which can turn into significant increases in the value of life in future.
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The possibilities and conditions for the use of tools for analyzing customer behavior on social networks
Horák, Vít ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Měsíček, Libor (referee)
The thesis deals with free tools that can be used to analyze customers of SMB e-commerce enterprises on the social network Facebook in order to increase their competitiveness within the social network. The theoretical part focuses on defining key terms, distinguishes types of social media and describes present social networks situation in world and in the Czech Republic from a users perspective and in the Czech Republic also from an enterprises perspective. Furthermore, the theoretical part also deals with possibilities that social networks can offer to the SMB enterprises. And as well it identifies different types of analytical tools that can be used for purposes of monitoring customers or analysis of customers. In the beginning of the practical part there is introduced the company Dobrutka.EU s.r.o. (the e commerce B2C company). Afterwards is presented the analysis of the survey about how SMB companies that operate the best Czech e-shops monitor and analyze their activities and customers from the social network Facebook. Subsequently there is handled the selection of appropriate tools for SME companies, which are also analyzed in the following chapter. At the end of the practical part there is practical application of knowledge from the thesis to Dobrutka.EU s.r.o. through the design and pilot deployment of appropriate procedures and analytic tools, whose effectiveness is evaluated at the end of chapter. The main benefit is in act of finding and verification of free tools and effective method that allows for detailed analysis of company customers even for micro companies and thus also effectively achieve positive economic results even in emerging facebook presentations.
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Sustainable tourism development of Vysocina Region
Veselá, Markéta ; Macháček, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Vondráková, Zuzana (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the topic of sustainable tourism development at the regional level. This phenomenon is elaborated on the example of Vysocina Region. To evaluate sustainability of its development, the potential of this touristic destination is researched regarding various areas, including key products. These are subjected to comparisons with recommendations of significant tourism organization for the purpose of assessing the sustainability of tourism. The diploma thesis also includes a comparison with other Czech regions experience as a touristic destination. Vysocina Region has favourable initial conditions for its sustainable development, especially regarding supply of key products, which include both environmentally friendly goods and cultural attractiveness contributing to the personal development of individuals and promoting intercultural tolerance. The main issue appears to be the spatial imbalance of its development in the region, caused mainly by the concentration of tourist activities to certain areas and low local initiative in the less attractive areas. The diploma thesis proposes a number of solutions, such as utilization of geocaching and products of gastroturism, supporting the foundation of local destination management organisations, promoting cycling tourism and the foundation of highly visited tourist destinations.
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Internal Migration in PRC: function, role and impact on Chinese economy
Čermáková, Zuzana ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the process of internal migration in Peoples' Republic of China. It focuses on low-skilled rural migrant workers, their overall characteristics, role in the economy and their status within Chinese society. This analysis aims to prove that despite the fact that rural migrants represent an essential element of Chinese economy, and have contributed by a great deal to China's economic take-off, they are still a very discriminated group of Chinese society and are constantly facing violations of their rights.
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Chytrá a udržitelná města v kontextu vědecké a inovační strategie EU
Horniecká, Marie ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (referee)
The thesis explores how the EU support to research and innovation towards urban sustainability is designed, what the existing EU intiatives striving for achieving smart and sustainable cities are. The analysis of theoretical approaches forms the basis for developing the definition of smart and sustainable city for the purpose of this thesis. An overview of the principal EU strategic documents which address urban sustainability together with European networks is provided in order to demonstrate the linkage to the research Framework Programmes. A separate chapter is devoted to the analysis of the most pressing challenges European cities face nowadays. Database of EU funded research and innovation calls and projects is examined (E-CORDA). Calls and projects related to urban areas are identified and juxtaposed with the urban problems. Final recommendations concern with social aspects of sustainability which should be, in the author's opinion, addressed in future EU research Framework Programmes with a particular attention.
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Effective dashboard design in the analytical tasks of IS
Janeczková, Agata ; Šedivá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Pour, Jan (referee)
The thesis deals with analysing and designing an effective dashboard. By way of introduction the topics of Business Intelligence, data storages and data quality are described. Then, an overview of analytical outputs is given and the process of their formation is outlined. The basic principles of an effective design of management reports are described, with emphasis laid on the end user. The thesis focuses on important factors of efficiency, such as applicability of transferred information and the form of their transfer. The practical part concentrates on the improvement of the efficiency of a particular dashboard. Besides the rules of a correct design, knowledge of cognitive psychology is also used for this purpose. Upon an analysis of deficiencies of an existing dashboard, proposed changes are incorporated. Changes resulting in more effective transfer of information via a dashboard are based on a theoretical basis of the previous section.
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Clustering and regression analysis of micro panel data
Sobíšek, Lukáš ; Pecáková, Iva (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee) ; Brabec, Marek (referee)
The main purpose of panel studies is to analyze changes in values of studied variables over time. In micro panel research, a large number of elements are periodically observed within the relatively short time period of just a few years. Moreover, the number of repeated measurements is small. This dissertation deals with contemporary approaches to the regression and the clustering analysis of micro panel data. One of the approaches to the micro panel analysis is to use multivariate statistical models originally designed for crosssectional data and modify them in order to take into account the within-subject correlation. The thesis summarizes available tools for the regression analysis of micro panel data. The known and currently used linear mixed effects models for a normally distributed dependent variable are recapitulated. Besides that, new approaches for analysis of a response variable with other than normal distribution are presented. These approaches include the generalized marginal linear model, the generalized linear mixed effects model and the Bayesian modelling approach. In addition to describing the aforementioned models, the paper also includes a brief overview of their implementation in the R software. The difficulty with the regression models adjusted for micro panel data is the ambiguity of their parameters estimation. This thesis proposes a way to improve the estimations through the cluster analysis. For this reason, the thesis also contains a description of methods of the cluster analysis of micro panel data. Because supply of the methods is limited, the main goal of this paper is to devise its own two-step approach for clustering micro panel data. In the first step, the panel data are transformed into a static form using a set of proposed characteristics of dynamics. These characteristics represent different features of time course of the observed variables. In the second step, the elements are clustered by conventional spatial clustering techniques (agglomerative clustering and the C-means partitioning). The clustering is based on a dissimilarity matrix of the values of clustering variables calculated in the first step. Another goal of this paper is to find out whether the suggested procedure leads to an improvement in quality of the regression models for this type of data. By means of a simulation study, the procedure drafted herein is compared to the procedure applied in the kml package of the R software, as well as to the clustering characteristics proposed by Urso (2004). The simulation study demonstrated better results of the proposed combination of clustering variables as compared to the other combinations currently used. A corresponding script written in the R-language represents another benefit of this paper. It is available on the attached CD and it can be used for analyses of readers own micro panel data.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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