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Global Economic Outlook - September 2017
Česká národní banka
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also look at the real exchange rate phenomenon from the perspective of what it tells us about EU countries. The real exchange rate reflects movements in both the nominal exchange rate and relative price levels. This means it can be used, for example, to assess a country’s convergence efforts (towards the core euro area countries), to discuss the central bank’s effect on the distribution of real appreciation (between the nominal exchange rate and the inflation differential channels) and to track the external competitiveness of an EU economy, and hence also the euro area. This is the line followed by our article, which examines the period from the establishment of the euro area in 1999 to the present.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - August 2017
Česká národní banka
The August issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we continue our summer mini-series on the economic impacts of Brexit on the United Kingdom. In the July issue, we focused on the short-term effects, whereas this issue summarises the conclusions of the most important studies analysing Brexit from the longer-term perspective. These studies concur that the UK economy will lose out by leaving the EU, a prediction that is gradually being confirmed by actual economic developments. However, it is still difficult to estimate the real extent of the economic impacts of Brexit, as it will depend primarily on the terms negotiated between the UK and the EU. In our analysis, we therefore present the main possible scenarios quantifying how much the UK will pay for Brexit in terms of loss of GDP.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - July 2017
Česká národní banka
The July issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this and the following August issue, we also focus on one of the main current economic phenomena – Brexit. At the end of June, a year elapsed since the referendum in which the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. In both articles we focus on assessing this decision’s economic impacts on the UK. The July issue is devoted to the short-term effects. It is apparent from a whole range of indicators that the conclusions of the many studies that warned of a negative Brexit shock for the UK economy are gradually materialising – from the initial visible nervousness of the financial markets, through the announcement of the referendum, to creeping and gradual impacts on the real economy. The final form of the terms negotiated with EU institutions will decide whether these impacts will be short-or long-term. This aspect – along with possible medium-term outlooks – will be the subject of a follow-up article in the August issue.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - June 2017
Česká národní banka
The June issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on assessing of the accuracy of the forecasts for 2016 published in Global Economic Outlook last year and the year before. The institutions under comparison were moderately optimistic with their economic outlooks. Their forecasts for GDP growth and inflation for 2016 expected higher figures on average than the subsequent outcomes. The outlooks for nominal interest rates in the USA and the euro area were also overestimated. The dollar did not appreciate against other currencies as much as expected by analysts. The price of oil was also mostly overestimated compared to the actual outcome.
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Global Economic Outlook - May 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The May issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus on the question of whether the oil market is approaching equilibrium. We consider in more detail, among other things, the behaviour of OPEC and US shale oil producers observed over the last three years. We also attempt to identify the causes of occasional sharp swings in oil prices.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - April 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The April issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also discuss the risks to global economic growth in the medium term. Global growth is currently being threatened above all by non - economic factors (environmental risks, large - scale migration, terrorism). Economic risks may continue to hinder world growth, but they no longer dominate the global risks in the way they did immediately after the global crisis broke out.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Mapping culture preferences of Klatovy
Tomanová, Jaroslava ; Tyslová, Irena (advisor) ; Kouba, Vojtěch (referee)
Research of motivation, values and other factors which influence preferences and consumption behaviour in the culture sector is standard practice in the developed countries. This bachelor thesis focuses on introducing several methods that have been used for the research in different countries. The practical part suggests a method which could be used for this kind of research in the area of Klatovy and the villages belonging to the power of this municipality. There have been developed statistical techniques used for measuring the relevance of the factors which influence the consumption behaviour in culture and arts. This might be significantly important not only for the cultural organisations and efficient decision making but also for the municipalities and the transparent redistributing of financial sources in this sector.
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