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Cross-border effects of sovereign rating changes on bond yields before and during the Eurozone crisis
Zachar, Martin ; Schneider, Ondřej (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper looks into the contagion dynamics of sovereign credit rating changes with regards to bond yields in the period before and during the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Our sample included European Union member countries, as well as a Eurozone subsample and a subsample excluding highly indebted countries. Events and outlooks from all three major rating agencies were considered. Our findings for the pre-crisis period are consistent with existing research, indicating an increase in borrowing costs by approximately five basis points in the case of a one-notch negative event, and insignificant effects in the case of positive events. During the crisis period, we observed a reversal of this effect, associating negative ratings with lower spreads on the entire sample. However, the effect was no longer significant when highly indebted countries were excluded from the sample, indicating that this effect may be tied to overly negative expectations. Lastly, we investigated the persistence of results, with only full-sample crisis period data displaying persistent effects. JEL Classification F01, F34, F42 Keywords credit rating, sovereign debt, default, debt crisis, European debt, sustainability Author's e-mail martin1703@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail schneider.ondrej@gmail.com
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Forecasts of the public debt for the Czech Republic
Sentivany, Daniel ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is to forecast future trajectory of the public debt level of the Czech Republic when taking into account ongoing fiscal reforms of the government and the after- math of the global financial crisis. A short survey of existing literature concerning fiscal austerity is presented in the first part, followed by the further motivation for the forecast- ing of the public debt level. Second part of thesis focuses mainly on the most important question, which is sustainability of the debt. We found out, that the public debt of the Czech Republic is clearly unsustainable, we also calculated so called fiscal gap to determine the amount needed to sustain it. The last third part contains numerous scenarios showing the future development of the public debt of the Czech Republic starting the year 2003, up to the year 2060. According to our results when assuming that no strict fiscal reforms will be introduced by the government in the following decades, we found that the level of the debt in the year 2060 will exceed 260% of GDP. Keywords: public debt; fiscal gap; public deficit; public budgets; public debt forecast; sustainability; debt consolidation; debt management Author's e-mail: sentivany.daniel@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail: jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
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Budgetary responsibility
Jarošová, Tereza ; Boháč, Radim (advisor) ; Marková, Hana (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse a concept of budgetary responsibility. Taking into account current financial crisis, this topic becomes more and more important, because long term deficit financing has had negative effects on the economic situation. Thesis aims to analyse the situation from legal as well as economic prospective. The thesis also compares legal adjustments of budgetary legislation and legal facts regarding rules of budgetary responsibility in the Czech Republic and Spain. The biggest stress is put on the analysis of subsequent findings and evaluation, whether or not the establishment of rules of budgetary responsibility is neccessary, which form (constitutional or statutory) and which content would be the most beneficial. The first chapter is dedicated to definition of concept of budgetary responsibility and related notions such as state budget and public debt, including contemplation about most common causes and consequences of those phenomenons. Since legal and economic discipline is mutualy connected, I incorporated also explanation of economic theoretical approaches to a deficit financing. Second and third chapter focuse on description of legal regulation of general part of budgetary law in the Czech Republic as well as description of current bills of constitutional laws...
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Development and structure of state debt of the Czech Republic and Slovakia
Burdová, Diana ; Štiková, Radka (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the development and structure of the state debt in Czech and Slovak Republic in the period from the establishment in 1993 to the year 2010. The main goal is to compare the development of indebtedness and state debt management in these two countries. The first part of the thesis deals with the theoretical background of public debt. The second part is a comparison itself and concentrates on the amount and structure of state debt, following the economic events, and on the actions of debt management. The conclusion summarizes common features and certain differences in the development. To some extent, it also outlines the future course of the state debt in Czech and Slovak Republic.
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European currency after Greek crisis
Martinek, Petr ; Loužek, Marek (advisor) ; Vlček, Josef (referee)
This thesis describes the current state of the European Monetary Union. Special attention is paid to the development of the recent debt crisis which revealed many weaknesses of the EMU. This paper analyses these problems and suggests some solutions. It explains causes and consequences of the debt crises and concludes with prospects for the future development of the Monetary Union.
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The Debt of the Czech Republic as a Public Policy Problem
Rezek, Štěpán ; Ochrana, František (advisor) ; Brázová, Věra - Karin (referee)
This thesis deals with public debt of the Czech Republic as a public policy problem. Its main objective is to propose solutions that would lead to a systemic and long-term solution to balance public finances. The first part deals with the definitions of terms that are necessary for subsequent analysis. In the second part the CR debt is set to the theory of public policy problem, the third part deals with the analysis of CR public debt. The analysis focuses on the emergence and development from its beginning to the present trends, characteristics and main issues of public debt CR. The analysis is based mainly on statistics issued by the Ministry of Finance and Czech Statistical Office. Last part is based on an analysis of CR public debt and its task is to design a system solution for it, which would lead to long-term balanced budgets. The author would like to help to expand the current information about this topic with this thesis, which affects not only Czech Republic but almost the entire world.
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The budgetary responsibility
Kafka, Stanislav ; Boháč, Radim (advisor) ; Marková, Hana (referee)
The thesis deals with the term of budgetary responsibility, past drafts trying to enact this term to the legal system of Czech Republic, and also deals with applicable legal rules contained in the European Union legal system. The aim of this thesis is to analyze every existing draft in the Czech legal system (with the special attention to the last legal draft), and trough this analysis reach to the ideal set of rules for the budgetary responsibility. The first chapter contains the description of the basic term and the theoretical basis for the rest of this thesis. Elementary terms are described first and trough that it comes to the main term of the principle of the long-term balance of public budgets and to the term of budgetary responsibility. The second chapter aims to describe every single legal draft made in Czech Republic during the past year. Main attention is provided to the last legal draft of the constitutional act of budgetary responsibility and to the related draft of the secondary legal adaptation, which was presented in the year 2015. The third chapter aids to the European Union legal adaptation of the budgetary responsibility. At first the thesis deals with the form of budgetary responsibility in the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union....
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Sustainability of public finances in the EU: Comparison of Germany and Great Britain
Zajíček, Jakub ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee)
Diploma Thesis deals with the comparison of public finances of the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany from 2000 to 2014. It focuses on the period of financial and economic crisis after 2008. This thesis aims to identify the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the sustainability of public finances of both countries. It also identify the reasons for the different development of public finances in both countries. The practical part is divided into three chapters. The first chapter deals with the period of 2000-2010. The second chapter focuses on consolidation of public finances in the years 2010-2014. The last chapter deals with the current development and sustainability of public finances of both countries.
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The role of municipalities in the indebtedness of the public sector
Maixnerová, Markéta ; Toth, Petr (advisor) ; Michalička, David (referee)
This thesis focuses on the issue of indebtedness of Czech municipalities and their role in the total public debt. The first part represents the theoretical basis and legislation, which includes defining key terms. The practical part is focused on analyzing the evolution of indebtedness of local governments and of other levels of the public sector. The analysis was made on the basis of compiled time series of the debt for the period 1994-2014. The indebtedness of municipalities and counties had a growing trend during the reported period. In recent years, municipal debt, unlike regional, is stable. The share on debt of municipalities and regions is the size of the public debt is not significant. The largest share of the debt is government debt, which constantly grows from the begging of the period. Part of this work is to compare two methods of evaluating municipal debt, namely debt service and SIMU. Five selected municipalities were compiled both types of indicators for the period 2010-2014. Based on this comparison it was shown to have better presentation of the indicators SIMU than debt service. The thesis seeks to comprehensively evaluate the development of each level of indebtedness of the public sector in order to show, what proportion represents Czech municipalities.
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