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Inflation: Predictive Power of Google Trends Data
Suchánek, Jan ; Stráský, Josef (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis explores the utility of Google Trends data in enhancing predictive power accuracy of ARIMA models for forecasting inflation in the Czech republic. The research was structured to address two core hypotheses: the rationality of inflation expectations as reflected in Google Trends search queries and the ability of the data to augment the predictive power of traditional inflation forecasting models. Our findings indicate that Google Trends data, when incorporated as an ex- ternal regressor in ARIMA models, significantly improve the model's predictive accuracy, especially in periods characterized by high inflation rates and eco- nomic turbulence. This provides evidence for the claim that Google Trends is able to effectively capture shifts in consumer sentiment and expectations. However, the study acknowledges limitations, including the specificity of the time domains analyzed and the exclusive focus on the Czech Republic. These factors may limit the generalizability of the results. In summary, this thesis contributes to the evolving field of economic fore- casting by demonstrating the value of integrating unconventional digital data sources like Google Trends into traditional econometric models. It opens av- enues for future research to explore the broader applicability of such data in...
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The influence of crude oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria
Onome, Nelson
The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of crude oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The paramount importance of oil in the economic landscape of Nigeria cannot be overstated. Although numerous researchers have conducted studies on the correlation between oil prices and various macroeconomic variables, their outcomes have proven to be debatable and limited to specific countries. The current study's literature review and methodology serve to elucidate these perspectives. Secondary time series data was employed in an Autoregressive distributed Lag Model analysis. Our study revealed that variations in oil prices exert a considerable impact on Nigeria's actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rates, and rates of inflation. Adverse perturbations in the global petroleum market bear noteworthy ramifications on price undulations. The Nigerian economy is characterized by a marked increase in imports, which has unavoidably led to the amplification of inflationary pressures. A noteworthy reduction has been observed in government revenues and expenditures. It is advised that to attain sustainable development in Nigeria, a diversification of the economy and energy sources be pursued. The findings of this study also indicate that unstable oil prices have diverse degrees of detrimental impact on exchange rate fluctuation, inflation, unemployment, and real GDP. Based on the empirical evidence obtained from the conducted study, it is our scholarly recommendation that the nation ought to diversify its income streams. This would serve to mitigate the impact of perturbations in oil prices on the vulnerability of economic conditions. The reduction in undulating oil prices has highlighted the need for Nigeria's economy to explore alternative sources of revenue to minimize the over-reliance on crude oil exports. Avenues of focus for serious policy implementation include the reformation of the agricultural sector, industrial policy strategies, as well as critical investments in mining and mineral development. Such diversification endeavors can potentially drive the nation's economic growth trajectory in the long term. The implementation of this approach is anticipated to facilitate the attainment of sustainable growth and development in Nigeria.
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Assessing the determinants of inflation rate in European countries
Wu, Wanru ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This thesis assesses the determinants of inflation rate in European countries, including data from 2010 to 2022. The existing research didn't include data during the pandemic and war between Russia and Ukraine, two crises causing unexpected rises in the inflation rate. Using panel data in R studio, the results suggest that GDP per capita influences inflation the most, oil price also plays an important role, and the base interest rate and unemployment rate also influence the inflation rate. In addition, GDP per capita is a negatively related variable. The unemployment rate negatively affects the inflation rate. The change in oil price is positively related to the inflation rate, and it is the only positive variable.
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Fiscal policy and inflation: The case of the Czech Republic
Slaba, Martin ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This thesis investigates the relationship between government spending and inflation in the Czech Republic. We estimate a block-restriction VAR model in several specifications. The model confirmed the prediction of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level, that a shock to government spending will produce an inflationary response. However, the impulse responses are in all specifications insignificant or borderline significant. Second part of the thesis utilizes a non- econometric analysis to examine the post-covid inflationary period. The conclusion of this analysis is that the expansionary government spending combined with a tax cut provided the population with significant disposable income at a time when the economic output was compressed and consumption was severely restricted due to the lockdowns. The forcibly delayed consumption lead to an unprecedented increase in savings of both household and firms. The drawdown of these savings once the restrictions were lifted created demand-side inflationary pressures. The supply-side shock that came with the the war in Ukraine only enhanced the already heightened inflation.
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Let the young vote: Potential effects of lowering the voting age on elections in Czechia
Čejka, Štěpán ; Palanský, Miroslav (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
Several countries throughout the world have already adopted a reform that enables younger voters, from 15 or 16 years old, to vote. This thesis examines the potential influence of including such voters in the Czech Republic on recent elections. A key feature of my work is that it combines several methods together to model the voter turnout of this age group. To estimate the potential voter turnout of the 15 to 17-year-old category we use fixed effects estimation, together with the exact numbers of citizens from the 2021 state Census and combine them together with the results of Student election that are held by the People in Need organization. The uniqueness of this thesis is that we model the voter turnout in every of the 76 Districts from the 2012 Region election until the 2021 Chamber of Deputies election. We particularly focus on the 2017 Chamber of Deputies and the 2018 Presidential elections both with very narrow outcomes. Finally, we estimate that the inclusion of the young voters most likely would not alter the results of neither election.
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Usage of Fiscal Policy in the Economic Instruments Simulator
TUPÝ, Jakub
This work includes a description of fiscal policy and its utilization in an economic movement simulator. Firstly, it provides an overview of fiscal policy, its strategies, and tools that the government employs to maintain stable economic growth. The theoretical knowledge acquired during the research was then applied in the practical part of the bachelor's thesis. In this section, a diagram was created to illustrate the options available to the simulator's users before proceeding to the next quarter. Additionally, random events are generated and displayed to the users during the simulation process. Each event is accompanied by its theoretical description, the text displayed to the users, its impact on GDP, unemployment, and inflation, which are the main indicators in the simulator, as well as a description of the most effective solutions using fiscal policy tools, complemented by tables with all their combinations. The practical part also contains a general description of the simulator, a description of its passage, a mathematical formula for calculating future values and a visual aspect to give the reader a comprehensive idea of how the simulator works and looks.
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Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation
Pivoňková, Alexandra ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
In recent years, real estate has gained vast popularity as an investment tool, as it has exhibited attractive returns both in its direct, and indirect form. Investments are generally sought after for their potential for profit generation as well as protection from the loss of purchasing power of one's capital. The extent to which individual assets hedge investors from inflation has become a widely discussed topic with conclusions varying across different studies. This thesis endeavors to update the research by observing asset returns and inflation in 4 countries, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the USA, and China, and analyzing the performance of individual assets in terms of inflation hedging by employing the latest data in a regression model. The studied period covers Q1 2009 - Q3 2022, where all data are in the form of annual returns, benched by individual quarters. With the main focus on real estate, comparison with the performance of other assets is included, namely bonds issued by governments of the observed countries, REITs performance, represented by the FTSE EPRA Developed Index, and stock returns, in the form of the S&P 500 index. The study then categorizes each investment tool based on its inflation-hedging properties. JEL Classification: G11, E31, R30, HR39 Keywords: inflation, hedge,...
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